Best Bets for Thursday: Three MLB Picks & Predictions (July 29)
On Thursday, July 29th, only 22 of the 30 MLB teams are in action, but sports bettors still have plenty of opportunity to earn some profit. The first pitch of the day is at 12:05 PM ET in Philadelphia, but there are five games on the slate starting at 7:05 PM ET or later for MLB bettors who prefer to stay away from afternoon affairs.
Let’s take a look at some MLB odds and picks across the league this evening.
MLB Picks for Thursday, July 29th
Tigers Moneyline (-150)
The Baltimore Orioles and the Detroit Tigers have both been playing exceptional baseball since the All-Star Break. Baltimore enters play having won seven of their last 10 games, and the Tigers have climbed all the way to within six games of the .500 mark after winning nine of their last 13 contests. Alexander Wells is on the hill for Baltimore this evening, but his small sample of work since being called-up is unlikely to inspire bettors to rush to wager on him. In 10.1 innings of work, he owns a 4.35 ERA, 7.30 xERA, and a 5.87 FIP. He does have a strong minor league track record, which will give Orioles fans some long-term hope, but bettors are not wagering on the long-term in tonight’s matchup. Wells will be countered by Casey Mize, who has taken a tremendous step forward in 2021 compared to last year. Over his last seven starts, he has posted a respectable 4.05 ERA and a 4.18 FIP, and he has been even better when pitching at home during that stretch. Detroit is a worthwhile risk for bettors in this one.
Rockies vs. Padres Under 8 Runs (-110)
Arguably the best value of the evening slate is at Petco Park–one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in Major League Baseball in night games. Since the beginning of 2019, this ballpark has ranked 21st in offensive production with below league-average metrics in nearly every offensive category. At first pitch tonight, the weather is forecasted to be in the low-70s with relatively high humidity. These are conditions that favor the pitchers more so than the hitters. Understandably, bettors may hesitate to play the under here when they see Kyle Freeland’s name listed as the starter for the Colorado Rockies. However, the San Diego Padres are one of the worst hitting teams in the league against left-handed pitching–ranking 21st in OPS and 23rd in ISO on the season. Notably, Sean Manaea took a perfect game into the latter frames against the Padres yesterday afternoon. Freeland does not have great season-long numbers, but in his last six starts, he owns a 2.06 ERA and a 2.87 FIP. His counterpart, Joe Musgrove should also have a strong outing in this one against a Rockies lineup that ranks 25th in OPS and 27th in ISO in 2021 against right-handed pitching. The under is a very strong play here.
Red Sox Moneyline (-116)
The Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox will play the series finale of a four-game set tonight at Fenway Park. The starting pitching matchup will feature Hyun Jin-Ryu for the Blue Jays against Eduardo Rodriguez. The surface-level numbers appear to favor Ryu, who owns a 3.44 ERA, compared to Rodriguez, who owns a 5.23 ERA. However, Ryu has struggled mightily against good offenses this year. He has even struggled recently against poor offenses–posting a 4.00 ERA and a 3.53 FIP in his last five outings versus teams that are not very good against southpaws. Despite Rodriguez’s high ERA, he owns a 3.65 xERA and a 3.51 FIP, which ranks 16 percent better than league-average. Rodriguez owns a healthy 27.4 strikeout-percentage against a 5.8 percent walk-rate, further suggesting that he has been more unlucky than anything this season. Over his last seven starts, Rodriguez owns a 3.74 ERA and a 2.86 FIP, even having pitched against some stellar offensive attacks during that stretch. Both Toronto and Boston rank in the top six in OPS and the top nine in ISO against left-handed pitching in 2021, so this is not going to be an easy win for Boston. Still, the starting pitching matchup favors the Red Sox enough to warrant a wager on them at a near pick’em.