Bucks vs. Suns Game 5 Odds, Betting Picks, Prediction

Bucks-Suns Game 5 Odds

Bucks vs. Suns Game 5 Odds

Bucks Odds+4
Suns Odds-4
DateSaturday, July 16

The 2021 NBA Finals started a bit lukewarm in Games 1 and 2, with a pair of relatively easy Suns wins in Phoenix. After two impressive Bucks victories in Milwaukee, the series heads back to the desert scorching hot. This has become the championship matchup NBA fans have been craving, and it’s been even more entertaining for bettors.

Giannis Antetokounmpo came up huge in Game 4, crushing the Suns down low, via the pass, and on defense. His partner in crime Khris Middleton also exploded in the second half, erupting for 40 points as he spearheaded the massive 109-103 comeback win. The Bucks got Devin Booker—who had a 40-burger of his own—into foul trouble, and they forced Chris Paul into some crucial turnovers. Milwaukee earned the W, and they now travel to Phoenix with a ton of momentum. However, Game 5 odds suggest it will be an uphill battle for Antetokounmpo & the Bucks.

As of early Friday morning, the Suns are 4-point favorites at online sportsbooks, and the total has dropped to 217.5.

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NBA Finals Game 5 Preview

Thanks to Budenholzer and the perseverance of his fantastic squad, we now have a brand new, best-of-three series. And if you ask me, the team that emerges victorious in Game 5 will ultimately hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy. But which team will win that pivotal contest Saturday evening? 

At this rate, we all know that the smart-money move game in and game out is to bet the home squad. The Suns have gone 35-11 at home, where they haven’t lost since May 25 (and before that, April 17). A young squad (beyond CP3, Jae Crowder, and Torrey Craig), Phoenix gets it done in front of its fans, averaging 3.4 more points than in away games (115.6-112.2) and allowing three fewer points than in road games (106.6-109.7). 

That 115.6 points per home game mark ranks in the top ten in the NBA during 2021-21. The 106.6 opponent points per home game ranks third. The Gorilla’s unit is locked and stocked at home, like a “Planet of the Apes” flick directed by Guy Ritchie (we’re getting weird now!). 

The main catalyst to Phoenix’s success at home: CP3. The veteran floor general was a +11.4 in home games this season, compared to a +2.9 on the road. Despite playing 62 fewer minutes at home, he turned the ball over 12 fewer times and committed 22 fewer fouls. Suns center Deandre Ayton has also been considerably better at home. Ayton was a +11.3 in Phoenix this season—compared to +1.8 on the road—and he shot better at home from every level.  

Bucks vs. Suns Picks

So, I’m all-in on the Suns’ moneyline -175. However, I’m not touching Phoenix -4. Milwaukee has demonstrated a remarkable resilience in the face of adversity, answering the bell on just about every shortcoming that led to its initial 2-0 series deficit. The Bucks have brought the intensity. They have stepped up their pick-and-roll defense. They have forced the issue in transition, and dominated the paint. And they have made things tremendously difficult for the Suns’ two best playmakers. 

Game 4 might have been one of the 10 best NBA Finals games in the 21st century. The Giannis recovery block on the Ayton ‘oop was iconic. The fast-break push from Middleton to Giannis to Connaughton for the humongous go-ahead trey was electric. And the Middleton contested layup to seal the deal was legendary. Mike Breen was right—Fiserv Forum seemed so loud that it appeared to be shaking.

But it’s time to go back to Phoenix Suns Arena. I like Milwaukee to keep this one close, continuing to play big and push the envelope so it can get the Suns in foul trouble. But I just don’t see Phoenix slipping for a third consecutive game, especially in the place they feel most comfortable. Suns coach Monty Williams will have his team prepared, Phoenix will find a way to contain the Bucks bigs, and CP3 will relinquish his role as the best closer in basketball.

I love the OVER 217.5 Saturday night. Wednesday’s 109-103 finish knocked the sportsbooks’ totals for this one down to 217.5, well below the points totals of Games 1, 2, and 3. Take the OVER and run—if you combine Milwaukee and Phoenix’s over/under records all year, you will see that the over has hit 99 times in 183 total games. That’s a 54 percent OVER rate, and it should put visions of dollar signs into your eyes. 

I have no dog in this fight—I honestly just wanted it to be a lucrative, injury-free, and (most importantly) fun series. I’m getting all those wishes—we are crushing our picks, the stars are shining the brightest, and the games are getting more entertaining as the series progresses. Let’s keep the gravy train rolling, and make some serious green on what should turn out to be an insane Game 5.

Game 5 Pick: Suns ML -175
Over/Under Pick: O217.5