Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks, Props & Outrights: Bermuda Championship
ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for every PGA event.
For the purpose of this column, I will be focusing mostly on H2H matchup, outright tournament winners, and live bets!
Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.
Congratulations to Rory McIlory, who joined an elite company with 30 worldwide wins and four major titles. He has now taken over Scottie Scheffler as the number-one golfer in the OWGR. Rory was able to keep his composure down the stretch and take the CJ Cup.
We were unable to make any sort of run at the top of the leaderboard last week. Collin Morikawa didn’t show up on Sunday and that cost us our head-to-head ticket against Sam Burns.
2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Course Design and Information
The PGA Tour heads to Port Royal Golf Course, which is located in Southampton Parish, Bermuda. This used to be an alternative field event, but now is a standalone FedEx Cup event, which features the full 500-point FedEx points and an invitation to the Masters for the winner.
We were very spoiled last week at the CJ Cup with many elite players in the field. This week is not going to be a repeat of that. This field is very weak. There will be a plethora of golfers that can win this event. The good news is that we have three years of data to go by.
Robert Trent Jones designed this course in 1970 and Port Royal has hosted this event since 2019. It’s a par-71 layout and plays 6,820 yards from the tips. If that sounds short to you, it’s because it is. This course is the shortest course on the PGA circuit. The only protection that the course offers is the wind. It is right on the ocean and the wind can cause huge headaches even for world-class golfers.
Three years ago, the wind did not play much of a factor, and Brandon Todd won at -24. The next two years the wind did come into play and the winning scores by Brian Gay and Lucas Herbert were -15.
As of right now, I can only speculate what the wind will do. I think the best thing to do is to find accurate drivers of the ball, who are also great from the 100-150 yard range. Distance off the tee is never a bad thing, but at this course, it is not imperative. Brian Gray and Brandon Todd are some of the shortest hitters on tour.
Free PGA Betting Picks
Russell Knox (40-1, BetMGM)
If short knockers and a good wedge game are what we are looking for, then look no further than Russell Knox. He was 152nd in driving distance last year, but ranked 19th in driving accuracy.
He’s going to keep the ball in play and has the wedge game to get the birdies needed to make a run on Sunday.
In the three years that he has played this event, Knox has finished T11, T16, and T12. That makes me feel comfortable about putting my money on him – regardless of the wind factor. The putter will be the boom-or-bust factor of his game, but we can say that about a lot of the players in this weak field and we are getting a really good price on Knox for his stat profile.
Will Gordon (50-1, BetMGM)
Gordon was dominating in the latter half of the Korn Ferry Tour last season. Now, he has gained strokes in his first three events of this PGA season. I hate to say it but this is a glorified Korn Ferry event, and players like Gordon aren’t getting the respect they deserve from the oddsmakers. He finished 34th in this event last year, but I assure you his game is in a much better place now.
Gordon would have had much better results this season if it weren’t for one bad round here and there. One factor that isn’t discussed enough, in my opinion, is that young players that get through the Korn Ferry season and reach the PGA Tour have to be able to make birdies in bunches to beat those fields. The ceiling exists with Gordon, this is the perfect course for him to flash it.
Kramer Hickok (100-1, DraftKings)
I always try to look at results from comparable courses when doing my research. Corales Puntacana, in the Dominican Republic, is a very similar track to Port Royal.
Hickok has never finished worse than T15 in that event. Now, looking at three starts at this Bermuda course, and we find out that Hickok has never finished worse than 30th.
It makes sense that Hickok can find success at these short resort tracks. He is a very short hitter of the ball, but is tremendously accurate off the tee. Hickok is the prototype golfer I want this week and he has the course history to back it up.