Cleveland Guardians 2022 Betting Odds and Team Preview
MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida is here to preview each team’s pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2022 MLB season. If you’re a Cleveland Guardians fan, find out more about Illinois sports betting and check out all of the MLB futures odds before Opening Day!
Following a surprise run to the 2016 World Series, the sky appeared to be the limit for this organization with budding young superstars in Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor in the infield and no shortage of elite starting pitching. Cleveland lost in the ALDS in both 2017 and 2018, then missed the postseason altogether in 2019 before losing in the Wild Card round in 2020.
Earlier this week, the Cleveland Guardians held their first full-squad workout. With first pitch on the resurrected Major League Baseball season less than three weeks away, we are taking a deep dive into the rosters for each team’s pitching rotation and lineup. Below, let’s take a look at how the Guardians stack up as they attempt to rebound from their first losing season since 2012.
Cleveland Guardians Odds
- Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 77.5 Wins (-110)
- Best Regular Season Record: +20000
- Division Winner: +850
- To Make the Playoffs: -475
- American League Winner: +5000
- World Series Champion: +10000
Offense
| Name | Pos. | GP 2021 | wRC+ v. LHP | wRC+ v. RHP | K% | BB% | UZR/ 150 |
| Austin Hedges | C | 88 | 50 | 35 | 27.9% | 4.8% | – |
| Bobby Bradley | 1B | 74 | 89 | 102 | 35.5% | 9.0% | 2.1 |
| Andres Gimenez | 2B | 68 | 53 | 78 | 25.7% | 5.2% | 5.0 |
| Jose Ramirez | 3B | 152 | 135 | 139 | 13.7% | 11.3% | 6.7 |
| Amed Rosario | SS | 141 | 129 | 85 | 20.4% | 5.3% | 1.6 |
| Oscar Mercado | LF | 72 | 128 | 54 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 6.9 |
| Myles Straw | CF | 158 | 72 | 110 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 8.5 |
| Bradley Zimmer | RF | 99 | 59 | 99 | 35.1% | 8.6% | 5.3 |
| Franmil Reyes | DH | 115 | 134 | 122 | 32.0% | 9.2% | 2.9 |
| Josh Naylor | UTIL | 69 | 41 | 117 | 18.0% | 5.6% | -17.8 |
Offensively, there are two ways to approach analyzing this Guardians lineup.
- Analysis A is what we will call the casual and realistic approach, seeing an elite talent in Jose Ramirez and a solidly above average hitter in Franmil Reyes, but not much else.
- Analysis B is what we will call the nuanced and optimistic approach, seeing plenty of platoon options for a shrewd manager to play to his advantage on a nightly basis.
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Cleveland ranked 19th in OPS, 8th in ISO, 15th in strikeout percentage, 21st in walk rate, and 15th in wRC+. Facing right-handed pitching, the Guardians ranked 22nd in OPS, 15th in ISO, 18th in strikeout percentage, 29th in walk rate, and 21st in wRC+. The arrival of a few prospects combined with stellar defense and good base running could lead to better than expected results for this group at the plate this summer.
Still, the Opening Day payroll for the Guardians is currently projected to be only $49 million dollars. For context on this number, newly acquired quarterback DeShaun Watson just received a $45 million dollar signing bonus to play football down the street. If looking for an intra-sport comparison, Mike Trout and Max Scherzer are each scheduled to make over $43 million this year–six million dollars less than Cleveland’s entire 26-man active squad.
Still, the Guardians have built a decent roster on a per-dollar basis when looking at the underlying data. Though this offense lacks true upside, they should contend for league average metrics against both right- and left-handed pitching this season. The Guardians also have the potential to be the best defensive team in Major League Baseball.
Guardians MVP Odds:
Jose Ramirez (+2500)
Jose Ramirez is unquestionably one of the most talented hitters in baseball. He has posted a wRC+ at least 8 percent better than league average in six consecutive seasons, including four instances of being at least 37 percent better than league average in that span. Ramirez has arguably the most skillful eye in the American League, posting a walk-rate north of 10 percent in three of his last four big league campaigns, while simultaneously keeping his strikeout rate well south of 20 percent. His patient approach coupled with his superb contact skills are unheard of in modern baseball, but especially among players who have 30-homer potential. It is difficult to come up with reasons that Ramirez cannot contend for the MVP this summer, other than the fact that his RBI chances are likely to be limited by a lack of talent around him.
Ramirez’s AL MVP odds are +2000 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can get +2500 on BetMGM.
Franmil Reyes (+15000)
Since debuting in 2018, Franmil Reyes has been at least 11 percent better than league average at the plate in each of his four seasons. Unfortunately, for Reyes, his ceiling is solidly capped by horrid contact skills. Reyes has struck-out in at least 28 percent of his at-bats in each of the last four years, with a career-worst 32 percent strikeout rate this past summer. At the end of the day, Reyes is a plus-hitter who makes the most of his opportunities against fastballs and holds his own against breaking balls and off-speed offerings. He is unlikely to contend for an MVP in the near future, but he is a valuable middle-of-the-order bat for the Guardians.
Amed Rosario (+20000)
A former top prospect, Amed Rosario has been a below average option at the plate in four of his five big league seasons. The one exception was the 2019 season in which he graded as a measly one percent better than the league average hitter at the dish. Rosario has quality contact skills, but a poor walk rate and an unusually low number of stolen bases given his speed. Rosario’s ability to blossom is further limited by his struggles against right handed pitching. Expect another respectable, albeit unspectacular year, from Rosario in 2022.