Dallas Cowboys Odds, 2021 Preview, Picks, & Predictions

NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida looks at Dallas Cowboys odds, previewing their roster, and giving you his best bets and picks for the 2021 season at online sportsbooks.

The upcoming NFL season is rapidly approaching, with players reporting to training camps around the league and front offices making last-minute roster additions. Although each team is still adding pieces to the periphery of their roster, we are at a point in the offseason in which bettors have enough clarity and information to responsibly research win totals, division winner odds, and more. One team that is likely to draw a lot of preseason betting action once again is the Dallas Cowboys.

Let’s take a look at their roster and how sportsbooks are valuing this group heading into the fall slate of action.

2021 Dallas Cowboys Odds and Predictions

Over/Under 9.5 Wins

In 2020, the Cowboys finished a disappointing 6-10 overall, but their record was likely worse than it would have been if their star-quarterback, Dak Prescott, would have played more than five games. Prior to a season-ending injury, he had thrown for 1,856 yards and nine touchdowns in what was shaping up to be his best season as a professional. Still, in their first four games, the Cowboys went only 1-3 with Prescott under center, losing winnable games against the the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Cleveland Browns. Since Prescott has been the starter for Dallas, they have won 13, 9, 10, and 8 games, respectively, not including last season for obvious reasons. Thus, based on recent historical information, a market price of 9.5 wins seems reasonable, with two of Prescott’s years as a starter going over that total and two under that price. 

However, using those four years of data can lead bettors astray because those teams featured Ezekiel Elliott in his prime, running behind arguably the best offensive line in football. Elliott claims to be in the best shape of his NFL career, saying to the media that he feels as good as he did as a standout star at Ohio State in college. Yet, Elliott only ran for 979 yards and six touchdowns a year ago and was arguably not even the best running back on his own roster. Outside of Zack Martin, the offensive line is a shell of its former self. Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are often talked about as one of the highest-upside trios in the league, but that upside has yet to manifest as a collective unit.

Ten wins seems to be a tall order for a team that perpetually underperforms and has quite a few question marks surrounding key players entering action this fall.

Pick: Under 9.5 Wins

Division Odds: Cowboys +120 to Win NFC East

Despite the obvious risk factors surrounding Prescott, Elliott, and the offensive line, the Cowboys once again find themselves as the favorite to win the NFC East Division. While the Washington Football Team, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Giants made splashy moves during the offseason, the Cowboys have not brought in any marquee free agents. Perhaps their biggest addition is defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who will be tasked with improving a defense that allowed more than 6,000 yards and just under six yards per play in 2020. Head Coach Mike McCarthy is in year two of his Dallas tenure and should benefit from a more “normal” offseason now that vaccinations have been rolled out and the pandemic is in a more manageable state. 

Still, the health of Prescott, the declining stardom of Elliott, and the unknowns on the coaching staff should make bettors shy away from laying preseason money on the Cowboys to win the division. Though they certainly have more upside than Washington, Philadelphia, and New York on the offensive side of the ball, this is a roster with far too many holes to be valued at +120.

Cowboys to Make the Playoffs (Yes: -155, No: +125)

If we expect the Cowboys to win less than 10 games, is it still possible that they make the postseason? Yes, but if betting on a postseason berth for the Cowboys, it makes far more sense to bet them to win the division at plus-money than it does to pay -155 for the insurance of them making a wild card. Last year, Washington won the NFC East with only seven victories. Not since 2018 have two teams finished above .500 in this division in the same year. There is no value whatsoever in betting them at -155 to make the postseason when any playoff hopes they have likely hinge on winning the NFC East.