Detroit Tigers Pitching Preview and 2022 MLB Futures Odds

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida turns his attention to the diamond as he previews the Detroit Tigers pitching staff and MLB futures odds. Find out more about Michigan sportsbooks and use our BetMGM promo code for a $1000 free bet.

Detroit Tigers 2022 Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 78.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +15000
• Division Winner: +750
• To Make the Playoffs: +340
• American League Winner: +2800
  World Series Champion: +6000

Detroit Cy Young Odds

Eduardo Rodriguez (+5000)

On the surface, it appears that Eduardo Rodriguez had a poor season last summer–posting a below average 4.74 ERA in 157.2 innings of work. Yet, upon closer examination, bettors see that Rodriguez also posted a career best 3.32 FIP, 3.50 xERA, 27.4 strikeout percentage, and 7.0 percent walk rate. Rodriguez ranked in the 63rd percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, walk rate, and chase rate. So how did he end up with a 4.74 ERA?

Rodriguez was victimized by a .363 BABIP in 2021–a stat that normalizes around .300, with major deviations from the mean being either exceptionally good or bad fortune on balls in play. Rodriguez generated an abundance of weak contact, but was incredibly unlucky. Part of the high BABIP can also be attributed to an atrocious Boston Red Sox infield defense playing behind him. In 2022, Rodriguez will be reunited with assistant pitching coach Juan Nieves, and will transition to a more pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Rodriguez has posted a FIP at least 9 percent better than league average in four consecutive seasons. He has a great opportunity to extend that streak this summer after signing a five-year, $77M deal with his new club in the offseason. There is plenty of upside here if he can stay healthy. Rodriguez’s AL Cy Young odds are +3500 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can get +5000 odds from Caesars.

Casey Mize (+7500)

A former number one overall draft pick, Casey Mize has yet to unlock his full potential at the big league level. Across his first 178.2 innings since debuting in 2020, Mize owns a 4.23 ERA and a 4.99 FIP–the latter of which is 15 percent below league average in that span. His 19.3 strikeout rate from last season ranked in only the 20th percentile among qualified pitchers. Once thought of as a future ace in the Tigers’ rotation, Mize now projects closer to a reliable third or fourth option. His average fastball velocity and below average spin rate is unlikely to unlock stardom. There are also valid concerns about Mize’s ability to handle a full season workload after he made it into the 6th inning in only two of his final 15 trips to the mound in 2021. Increased usage of his curveball and splitter could help him achieve better results than he has seen to this point, but it is unlikely that Mize will find himself in the Cy Young conversation. There are better options to take a risk on in this price range on the futures market.

Tarik Skubal (+7500)

Tarik Skubal has been less than impressive to start his professional career, posting a 4.57 ERA and a 5.20 FIP across his first 181.1 innings of work. His 5.20 FIP ranks 20 percent worse than league average in that span. Skubal’s strikeout and walk percentages offer hope for a better 2022, but an inability to limit hard contact remains Skubal’s biggest hurdle to become a front-of-the-rotation piece in the Motor City. Last summer, Skubal ranked in the 17th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. Skubal allowed an MLB-worst 35 home runs, despite pitching in a home ballpark that has allowed the second fewest home runs of all 30 stadiums across the last three seasons. There is potential for better results going forward, but there are clear red flags of which to take note. 

Matt Manning

The ninth overall selection in the 2016 draft, Matt Manning has not yet lived up to expectations during the early part of his career. As a rookie, Manning posted a 5.80 ERA, 5.48 xERA, and a 4.62 FIP. He has a fastball with average velocity and below average spin rate–a less than ideal combination. Manning did not generate a 20 percent swing and miss rate on any of his five pitches last season, which is predictable for a player that fails to generate much spin. His 12-6 curveball is often closer to 12-3, if the 3 was dead center in the middle of the clock. Still, Manning is only going to be 24 years old on Opening Day and has a strong resume of success at nearly every level of the minor leagues. Hope is not lost simply because he had a rough 18 start introduction to the big leagues. 

Michael Pineda 

Unsurprisingly, bettors will not find a line available to wager on Michael Pineda to win the Cy Young award. Still, Pineda has the ability to solidify the fifth spot in the Detroit starting rotation, and to allow Tyler Alexander to work more effectively in a relief role. Per Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic, it is unclear if Pineda will be ready for the opening week of the campaign, but the 33-year-old stalwart is likely to be ready to go sooner rather than later. Pineda’s fastball has lost 4 miles-per-hour since he debuted in 2011 with the Seattle Mariners, but he has still managed a FIP better than league average in six of the last seven seasons. Pineda pounds the strike zone more than almost any pitcher in baseball, ranking in the 96th percentile in walk rate in 2021. He still possesses a plus-slider, against which batters posted a putrid .246 wOBA last season. Pineda was not the sexiest post-lockout signing, but he is likely to be a stable presence for a young Detroit rotation. Well done Al Avila.

Bullpen

Bullpen

In 2021, the Tigers bullpen ranked 24th in FIP (4.53), 27th in xFIP (4.69), 23rd in strikeout percentage (22.4%), 27th in walk-rate (11.0%), and 28th in WHIP (1.45). Gregory Soto and Michael Fulmer are once again likely to handle the majority of the high leverage in 2022 for this unit after they combined for 32 saves and 16 holds last summer. Soto’s severe command issues are less than ideal for a guy tasked with frequently recording the last three outs of a ballgame. Nevertheless, the lack of a true closer in Detroit allows Manager A.J. Hinch to be liberal with his decision-making in situations when Soto walks himself into trouble.

The addition of Andrew Chafin gives Hinch another strong left-handed option to use in the late innings. In 2021, Chafin ranked in the 74th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. Though not the biggest name in baseball, Chafin has been an above average reliever measured by FIP in seven of his eight seasons since debuting in 2014 with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Cisnero does not possess the command necessary to be an elite relief option, but his 91st percentile fastball velocity and 75th percentile fastball spin is enough to make him a dependable 6th or 7th inning man for the Tigers. At worst, Cisnero should hover around league average in terms of run prevention. Per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Kyle Funkhouser is not expected to be with the team for their home opener on April 8th, due to right latissimus dorsi soreness. Funkhouser threw 68.1 innings for Detroit last season, and was tied for second on the roster in holds. His eventual return will only further solidify an extremely underrated Detroit bullpen.

Alex Lange posted an unsightly 7.31 ERA and a 6.42 FIP from April 10th to June 14th last season. A midseason commitment to reducing his fastball usage in favor of his slider and changeup made a world of difference, resulting in a 1.37 ERA and a 2.76 FIP across his last 18 appearances. He offers another element of stability for this unit if healthy. Joe Jimenez posted a disastrous 16.7 percent walk rate in 2021 en route to his third consecutive below average campaign, thus relegating him to low leverage duty going forward. If Michael Pineda is not the fifth starter for the Tigers, that spot in the rotation will unquestionably go to Tyler Alexander. Alexander figures to play a swingman type of role for Detroit in 2022. Tigers fans need not familiarize themselves with Jason Foley and Wily Peralta–each of whom is unlikely to be on the MLB roster for long this year, if they even make the Opening Day club.