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Eastern Conference Finals Odds & Betting Preview

Andy Means Thu 7/8 8:49am PT

Coming off of two wildly entertaining seven-game series in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks will square off in the Eastern Conference Finals for a ticket to the NBA Finals. Sportsbooks are giving the heavy edge to Milwaukee, as they are currently sitting their Eastern Conference Finals Odds at -500 to win the series and advance to the NBA Finals. The Hawks, on the other hand, fly into Milwaukee carrying +375 odds. Before diving into more Eastern Conference Finals odds and matchups, let’s take a look at each team’s path to this point and some important underlying statistics from their road through the NBA Playoffs thus far.

Eastern Conference Finals Odds & Matchup Preview

Milwaukee Bucks (-500)

First Round: Defeated the Miami Heat 4-0

115.0 Offensive Rating
95.4 Defensive Rating
100.26 Pace
56.8% true shooting percentage

Eastern Conference Semifinals: Defeated the Brooklyn Nets 4-3

104.5 Offensive Rating
107.3 Defensive Rating
96.07 Pace
52.1% true shooting percentage

Atlanta Hawks (+375)

First Round: Defeated the New York Knicks 4-1

109.7 Offensive Rating
102.1 Defensive Rating
94.90 Pace
55.8% true shooting percentage

Eastern Conference Semifinals: Defeated the Philadelphia 76ers 4-3

107.9 Offensive Rating
111.5 Defensive Rating
99.64 Pace
54.9% true shooting percentage

First and foremost, it is crazy to me that we have two teams meeting in the Conference Finals who are both coming out of a series in which they had a negative Net Rating. As you can see from the stats above, the Bucks were outscored by 2.8 points per-100 possessions in the series against Brooklyn, while the Hawks were outscored by 3.6 points per-100 possessions. While that is a testament to just how close those series were, it also shows that neither of these teams are anywhere close to being dominant.

In the series against Brooklyn, Milwaukee actually played some really stellar defense. Yes, I know the Nets had some injuries to two key players, but a 107.3 Defensive Rating against an offense like Brooklyn (especially with how good Kevin Durant was playing) is pretty impressive. Durant absolutely dominated the usage for the Nets in that series (36.7%; next closest was Kyrie Irving at 25.7%), so the Bucks should be prepared for what they are going to see from Trae Young and the Hawks. Trae had a 33% usage rate in their series against Philly, with the next closest being Lou Williams and Bogdan Bogdanovic in the 22-23% range.

While Trae is going to rack up plenty of stats against Milwaukee’s drop coverage in the pick-and-roll, the Bucks have the length to make it especially difficult on him. Jrue Holiday probably draws the Trae Young assignment. He has a few inches on Trae and is also one of the best individual defenders in the league. I’d certainly rather have him on Trae than anyone Philly threw at him (yes, that includes Ben Simmons).

Brook Lopez is no Joel Embiid on the defensive end in a vacuum, but Lopez will also not be asked to carry the entire offensive workload like Embiid had to. Combine that with all the extra minutes while playing on a torn meniscus, and you can make the case that having a Brook Lopez back in drop coverage against Trae Young is just as good (better?) than having that version of Joel Embiid. Especially late in that Game 7 win over Brooklyn, Lopez’s defense was vital in Milwaukee pulling out that win

I am unsure what to expect when Milwaukee has the ball, as I am still blown away by how poor they were on the offensive end against Brooklyn. For comparison, the Bucks had a 116.5 Offensive Rating in the regular season, which was the fifth-best in the league. Yes, points are much harder to come by in the playoffs, but they were a full 12 points per-100 possessions worse in those seven games against Brooklyn

A lot of that credit should of course go to Brooklyn, but you can also point to just really poor individual performances on Milwaukee’s side. For example, Jrue Holiday had a 59.2% true shooting percentage during the regular season. And in this series against Brooklyn? 42.8%!

Ultimately, I do like Milwaukee to win this series. I think they should have a slightly easier time defending Trae Young and the Hawks than they did against Kevin Durant and the Nets. It is what they do on the offensive end though that has me wondering in exactly how many games they are able to dispose of the Hawks

Bucks vs. Hawks Series Betting Picks

I don’t think I am dropping any hot takes by saying that I think Milwaukee should handle the Hawks pretty easily in this series. After all, their Eastern Conference Finals odds are a whopping -500 at BetMGM Sportsbook. But what fun is it for me to sit here and recommend to lay down that much money on heavy favorites? The answer is no fun, no fun at all. And while I do think there is some “value” in that Atlanta series line (+375), I don’t think I can sit here and officially recommend that either since I feel strongly that Milwaukee wins this series. So then what’s the move NBA bettors should be making here?

For me, I like speculating on the Bucks winning this series in either five games (+230) or six games (+350). The Hawks have proven to be a good enough team that I’d be pretty shocked if Milwaukee is able to sweep them, but I also think Milwaukee is superior enough of a team that they won’t need the full seven. So you can sprinkle a little on each of those numbers at plus money and still come out ahead of either of them hit. Or you can hone in on one. If I have to side with one, I will take the better odds and go BUCKS IN SIX, baby.

Hawks at Bucks Game 1 Picks: Under 226.5

Lastly, if we want to look ahead to Eastern Conference Finals odds and NBA lines for Game 1, I have to say I really like taking the under 226.5 here. The pace at which Milwaukee played slowed down significantly from the Miami series (100.26 pace) to the Brooklyn series (96.07 pace), so I’m guessing that Atlanta is going to try to mimic that as well. The Hawks have absolutely no shot if they let Milwaukee get out in transition, so they should try to slow this one down even more so than normal. So then based on how good these defenses are (and Milwaukee’s own struggles on the offensive end last series), I think this game is far more likely to end in the 210’s than the 220’s.

If I had to pick against the spread, I’d have to go with Milwaukee at -7. Even though Coach Budenholzer emptied the clip when it came to his players’ minutes in that Brooklyn series, the Bucks will have had three days off and will get Game 1 at home. Atlanta, on the other hand, will only have had two days off. For what it’s worth though, I definitely like the under more than I like Milwaukee.

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NBA Finals MVP Odds

After narrowly getting by the Nets, Milwaukee (+110) now finds themselves as the favorites to win the NBA title, in front of Phoenix (+170). Along those same lines, Giannis Antetokounmpo (+145) finds himself as the favorite in the futures market to win NBA Finals MVP.

At first glance, getting Giannis’s teammate, Khris Middleton, at +1200 did seem pretty appealing. But even if, hypothetically, Middleton is able to average more points per game than Giannis en route to the Bucks winning the championship, Giannis’s other stats are likely to dwarf Middleton’s. Throw in a national media that would be fawning over the Giannis narrative and story, and I think I’d rather just take the safe bet in Giannis rather than taking a flier on Middleton.

Honestly, though, the better value might be with one of the Suns, Devin Booker (+300) and Chris Paul (+550). For one, they already have a leg up in their series, as they took Game 1 from the Clippers even without the services of Chris Paul. And with the status of Kawhi Leonard uncertain at best for the rest of the playoffs, I’m not sure they have the juice to get past this Phoenix team (who should get Paul back any game now).

And speaking of narratives/stories that the media will absolutely eat up, Chris Paul anybody!? If I’m picking between the two Suns, I’m definitely siding with The Point God at +550.

Image Credit: Imagn