Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB & NFL Player Props To Bet On Monday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for Monday and offers NFL props Seahawks vs. Broncos – Monday, September 12, 2022.
Good afternoon everyone. We have a short, 9-game slate in MLB today with the first leg of a double header between the Rangers and Marlins getting us started this afternoon. We have eight games that start after 6 PM ET, including the second game of the double dip. We also wrap up Week 1 in the NFL with a Monday night showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson’s Denver Broncos.
Free MLB Player Props Picks For Tonight
Spencer Strider Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Let’s get started on the diamond, with a matchup in San Francisco between the Giants and the Atlanta Braves. We have a great pitching matchup between Alex Cobb and the electric Spencer Strider.
Strider has had an outstanding season with a 2.69 ERA and even stronger peripheral numbers. His 2.42 SIERA, 2.35 xFIP and 38.1% strikeout rate are all elite. His walk rate is down to 8.5% after sitting in the double digits early in the season. Since his first two starts, the walk rate sits at just 6.6%. No matter what metric you are looking at, Strider is an elite starting pitcher.
Strider has been over 7.5 strikeouts in 9 of his 18 starts. He has had at least 10 strikeouts five different times this year with a season high of 16 strikeouts just two starts ago against the Rockies.
Today, he gets a nice ballpark upgrade going into pitcher-friendly Oracle Park in San Francisco. The Giants offense has been almost exactly league average, with a 100 wRC+ and a .310 wOBA for the season. Their 23.6% strikeout rate is the 8th highest in the league. Strider is a matchup proof strikeout artist, but this matchup is a slightly positive one in terms of strikeouts.
I like Strider to continue his dominant run and go over 7.5 strikeouts against the Giants today.
Alex Cobb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
On the other side of the game, San Francisco counters with Alex Cobb.
Cobb will be making his 24th start of the season. His ERA has been steadily declining since his horribly unlucky start to the season, and he now sits at a very respectable 3.68 ERA. His peripherals still outpace his results with his SIERA sitting at 3.20 and his xFIP all the way down at 2.92. The strikeout rate is above average at 24.4%, and the walks are solid at 7.2%.
Cobb has been over 5.5 strikeouts in 11 of his 23 starts, but don’t forget the unlucky start to his season with injuries and awful batted ball luck that knocked him out of several starts earlier than he should have been. In his last nine starts, he has been over 5.5 strikeouts in six of them. That is much closer to the talent of Cobb and the rate at which I believe he should be clearing this prop.
Cobb gets one of the most volatile matchups in the league today against the Braves. Atlanta is an elite offense with 110 wRC+ and a .331 wOBA that ranks second in MLB. However, their 24.5% strikeout rate is the third highest in baseball. There is not a single hitter in their projected lineup that has a strikeout rate under 22.6%. Cobb gets the same ballpark benefit as Strider which should help limit the damage against him today. The strikeout upside outweighs the odds of him getting blown up today in San Francisco. Give me Cobb to go over 5.5 strikeouts.
Monday Night Football Player Props: Seattle vs. Denver
Now we switch gears over to the Monday Night Football showdown in Seattle between the Seahawks and Denver Broncos. Superstar quarterback Russell Wilson returns to Seattle for his first professional game as a member of an organization other than the Seahawks after he was dealt to the Broncos in an off-season trade.
The Broncos come in as 6.5-point road favorites with a game total of 44 points in most places.
Melvin Gordon Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
All of the focus will be on Russell Wilson and the passing game, and I do think the Broncos begin the game with a pass heavy attack to showcase Wilson. However, I think the Broncos get out to a comfortable lead and then lean on their talented backfield duo of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. Williams is the presumed lead back as the younger, flashier ball carrier, but I think this backfield is much more of an even split than most of the industry cares to acknowledge.
Gordon accumulated over 37.5 rushing yards in 12 of the 16 games he played last season. He carried the ball as many or more times than Williams in 13 of the 16 games both of them were active. Williams could certainly earn a larger share of the backfield this season with a year of experience under his belt, and Gordon a year older, but Gordon should still have a significant role.
I think there are plenty of rushing attempts to go around in this one with the Broncos coming in as significant favorites. Give me Gordon over 37.5 rushing yards tonight.
That will do it for today’s breakdown. We were able to identify two strikeout props to target in MLB, and a rushing yards prop for Monday Night Football:
- Spencer Strider Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100, Multiple sportsbooks)
- Alex Cobb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115, DraftKings)
- Melvin Gordon Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!