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Tides’ Takes: Free Expert Picks For Today- MLB Player Props (7/6/22)

Timothy Buell Wed 7/6 8:01am PT
Our experts are backing Aaron Nola against the Nationals today.
Image Credit: Imagn

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for Wednesday’s MLB games.

Happy Wednesday everyone! Throughout the week, I will be giving out a few of my favorite MLB props picks that you can find for free right here at ScoresAndOdds.

Make sure to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.  

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Today

This is a play more about the leash of Nola, than it is a great matchup for strikeouts. Despite the Nationals’ horrible offense, they are good at not striking out. They strikeout fewer times than any other team in the National League. 

That being said, not all of those matchups come against pitchers as talented as Aaron Nola. Not to mention, Juan Soto has been battling with a back injury, and Nelson Cruz was scratched from yesterday’s game with an undisclosed issue. Nola has one of the most consistent leashes of any pitcher in baseball and I have a high degree of confidence he will be in this game for well over 100 pitches. He is currently projected for over 7.25 strikeouts and I think that -121 is a fair price to lay against this Nationals’ team –despite their low K rate. 

This is a very similar situation to yesterday, where I think that the home-run odds are just too short to justify making a wager on, but that doesn’t mean I want to completely avoid the matchup. 

Josiah Gray has a reasonable skillset, but gives up a ton of hard contact and fly balls. It will be another scorching hot day in Philadelphia so I think this will be another big day for Castellanos and the Phillies’ bats. If you want to add guys like Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto, I think you can. 

These odds between +3-600 is where I like to go home-run hunting. We have Seager getting the platoon advantage against Spenser Watkins, who has a 12.6% strikeout rate and a slight fly-ball lean.

Watkins also has a 8.8% HR/FB ratio that I think has some regression coming his way.  He hasn’t ever had a ratio that low and is around the 15% mark for his career. Seager has tremendous plate skills and I fully expect him to hit the ball hard off Watkins so I will be adding a bet on his over 1.5 bases to offset home run variance.