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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Player Props To Bet On Wednesday

Keith Eyster Wed 9/28 1:09pm PT
Our MLB betting experts are backing Aaron Nola today.
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB & player props picks for Wednesday, September 28, 2022.

We continue to wind down the MLB regular season with 15 games on the schedule today. Congratulations to the Yankees and Cardinals for officially clinching division titles last night. The NL East is now the only remaining division race yet to be decided, with the Braves tying the Mets at the top with a win last night. 

The battle for the final wild card in the NL is still up for grabs, as well with both the Phillies and Brewers losing last night. Both teams have one of their top arms on the mound tonight and great matchups (assuming the Cardinals rest some guys after clinching).

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Wednesday

Aaron Nola Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-105) 

We get started with the Philadelphia Phillies who will be taking on the Chicago Cubs again after getting shut down by Marcus Stroman last night. The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound for his 31st start of the season. 

This may not be a “must” win game for the Phillies, but it is certainly one they would like to have with the Brewers sitting just 1.5 games behind them for the final NL Wild Card spot. They have the right pitcher on the mound as Nola has been outstanding again this season with a 3.28 ERA, 28.7% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate. The ERA and a strikeout rate are well-above average and the walk rate is elite. 

Nola is coming off back-to-back 8-strikeout performances against the Braves. If we throw out his 2-inning start that was cut short by rain, Nola has been over 7.5 strikeouts in 8 of his last 11 starts. His strikeout rate is above 30% in the second half of the season.  

Nola gets an outstanding matchup today against the Cubs. They have not been playing meaningful games for quite some time, and continue to run out different young guys for evaluation. The Cubs offense has posted just a 90 wRC+ over the last 30 days, and their 26.6% strikeout rate is the 3rd highest in baseball. I recommend jumping on this line before the Cubs lineup is released, because it could really get steamed if the Cubs roll out a strikeout-heavy lineup.

RotoGrinders is currently projecting Hoerner and Quiroz in the lineup, but I could definitely see Hoerner – the Cubs lowest strikeout bat – getting the day off as they have been taking it slow with him since his return from the IL. Wisdom and/or Bote could be the replacements and both have strikeout rates above 28% to righties this year. 

No matter what lineup the Cubs roll out, this is a fantastic spot for Nola. As a bonus, winds are blowing at 10+ MPH at Wrigley Field and temperatures are in the 50s, making for really tough hitting conditions today. I like Nola to dominate today and go over 7.5 strikeouts. 

Brandon Woodruff Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140) 

The other team fighting for the final NL Wild Card spot is the Milwaukee Brewers, who just watched the division-rival Cardinals clinch against them last night. The Cardinals undoubtedly celebrated last night and most teams tend to run out a very watered-down lineup after clinching scenarios. This should be a great bounce-back spot for the Brew Crew. 

Brandon Woodruff takes the mound tonight for his 26th start of the season. He has been great this season with a 3.18 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate, and 7.0% walk rate. 

Woodruff has been in elite form recently with double-digit strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts. He mowed down the Reds twice and posted 11 strikeouts in each of his starts against them, and impressively shut down the Yankees for 8.0 innings with 10 strikeouts. 

The Cardinals are not generally a matchup we are targeting for strikeout props as they have been an elite offense all season long, but I think the big bats like Goldy and Arenado almost certainly get the day off today. That should leave us with a bunch of young guys who strike out plenty like Gorman and Yepez. 

Even if the Cardinals roll out a full-strength lineup, Woodruff’s elite recent form and 30% strikeout rate certainly play in any matchup. The Brewers season is hanging in the balance, and I expect Woodruff to be on his game today. Give me the over on 6.5 strikeouts. 

Taijuan Walker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130) 

We close it out today with the New York Mets hosting the Miami Marlins. After their 6-4 loss to these Marlins last night, the Mets are now tied with the Braves at the top of NL East. The Mets once held a double-digit division lead, but the Braves have been incredible in the second half of the season. 

The Mets turn to Taijuan Walker this evening to hopefully get them back on the winning path. Walker has had a solid season with a 3.53 ERA. The strikeouts are below average at 18.7%, but the 7.1% walk rate and 45.8% ground ball rate both represent solid skills. Walker has also displayed double-digit strikeout upside multiple times this season, so the strikeouts can show up in bunches at times. 

Walker’s most recent 10-strikeout performance came a few weeks ago against this Marlins team. In fact, Walker has faced the Marlins a whopping five times already this season, and he has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in four of those five starts, including another 9-strikeout performance back in July. 

The Marlins have been a below-average offense all season with an 89 wRC+ and a .291 wOBA that ranks 4th worst in the league. They have also struck out at an above-average 23.7% rate on the season. 

Walker should be able to find success against the Marlins, yet again, and I like him to go over 4.5 strikeouts. 

Player Props Betting Card Today

That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!