Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Monday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today — Monday, July 4, 2022.
Happy Independence Day to everyone! We have baseball spread all throughout the day with 14 totals games. We will focus on the 8 games starting after 6 p.m ET.
There are weather concerns in Detroit (Game 2) and Chicago today, so we will need to tune into Kevin Roth’s updates over on the RotoGrinders Weather Page.
Editor’s Note: Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting on baseball now!
Free MLB Player Props Picks For Today
Dylan Bundy Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Let’s get started in Chicago, where the weather looks better after an afternoon update from Roth.
The Chicago White Sox host the Minnesota Twins as the race for the AL Central division heats up. It is looking like a three-team race between these two teams and Cleveland, so this will be an important game.
Dylan Bundy makes his 14th start of the season for Minnesota in what has been a rocky season for him. He has pitched to a 4.71 ERA, but his 4.40 SIERA and 4.45 xFIP are a bit more favorable. The strikeout rate is well-below average at 16.9%, while the walk rate has been elite at 4.7%.
Bundy has not pitched deep into games this season, often getting pulled before reaching the 80-pitch mark. He has made 8 starts this season where he has thrown less than 80 pitches, and he has thrown less than 70 pitches in 5 of those starts.
He gets a matchup with a high-contact White Sox team that has struck out at only 20.6% this season, 9th lowest in baseball.
Bundy has been under 3.5 strikeouts in 8 of his 13 starts this season, and I think he stays under again today.
Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Next we look to San Diego, where the Padres host the Seattle Mariners. Sean Manaea makes his 15th start of the season for San Diego.
Manaea has put together a solid season with a 3.92 ERA. The strikeout rate sits above average at 25.8%, but he has struggled with walks a bit as they are up at 9.0%. The 3.79 SIERA and 3.77 xFIP are both solid as well.
Manaea has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in 9 of his 14 starts. He continues to work deep into games as he has made it through the 6th inning in 12 of his 14 starts. The above average strikeout rate and ability to pitch deep in the game give us a good base to work from here.
The matchup is good as well. Seattle has been an above-average offense this season with a 106 wRC+, but they have struck out a fair amount versus left-handed pitching. Their 23.7% strikeout rate versus lefties ranks 6th highest in baseball. Six hitters in the projected lineup have struck out at 27.8% or higher, with five of them being at 30% or higher. Winker is expected to begin serving his suspension today, so we almost certainly see Upton and his massive strikeout rate in the lineup.
Manaea will need to focus on his control as Seattle’s 11.3% walk rate versus lefties is the best in baseball. If he is able to limit the free passes, he should be able to pitch deep into the game, I like Manaea over 5.5 strikeouts.
Alek Manoah Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Finally, we look to the Bay Area, where the Oakland Athletics square off with the Toronto Blue Jays. Alek Manoah will make his 16th start of the season for Toronto.
Manoah has been brilliant this season with a 2.09 ERA. The 3.70 SIERA and 3.77 xFIP suggest he has had good fortune, but both are solid overall. The strikeouts have been around league average at 22.7% and the control has been elite with just 5.1% walks.
Manoah’s strikeouts have taken a step backwards this year as he was over 27% last season, but he has been a better pitcher overall. He still has a solid 11.2% swinging strike rate and 27.8% CWS%, so we may see some positive regression in the strikeout rate this season.
He gets an elite matchup today against Oakland who has been the worst offense in baseball this season. Its 76 wRC+ and .267 wOBA both rank dead last. They have struck out at a rate of 23.7%, which is 6th highest in the league. Their projected lineup owns just a .126 ISO versus right-handed pitching this season and they have walked at only 6.5%. Manoah should be able to aggressively attack this lineup today.
Manoah has worked through at least 6 innings in 13 of his 15 starts this year, and he should have no problem doing that again tonight against the worst offense in baseball. I like Manoah to go over 5.5 strikeouts.
Eys Breakers Strikeout Props Picks For Today
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target:
- Dylan Bundy Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125, DraftKings)
- Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160, BetMGM)
- Alek Manoah Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160, DraftKings)
Have a safe and happy holiday! Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!