Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Tuesday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today – Tuesday, August 30, 2022.
We have a full slate of 15 games on the MLB schedule for today. All 30 teams are in action this evening with no games starting before 6:10 ET.
Weather is mostly clear across the league, with a couple notable exceptions. Washington, D.C. should see some rain today with a late start and play the most likely outcome according to Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth. There is also a risk for an in-game delay in New York. Roth has all the updates for you over on the RotoGriders weather page.
- Editor’s Note: Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting on baseball now!
Free MLB Player Props Picks For Tuesday
Shane McClanahan Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Let’s get started down in Florida, where the Miami Marlins host the Tampa Bay Rays. Shane McClanahn will make his 25th start of the season for the Rays.
McClanahan has put together an excellent season with a 2.20 ERA that is fully supported by a 2.50 SIERA and 2.27 xFIP. The strikeouts check in at an elite rate of 32.5%, with the walk rate at an exceptional 5.4%.
After a small blip of three starts in an otherwise brilliant season, McClanahan is right back on track with 8 strikeouts against the Royals and 9 strikeouts against the Angels. He continues to lead all qualified starting pitchers in MLB with a 16.3% swinging strike rate and 34% CSW rate.
His matchup today is as good as it gets against Miami. The Marlins have been atrocious against left-handed pitching this season with a laughable 65 wRC+ and a .258 wOBA that ranks dead last by over 20 points. Atrocious might not be a strong enough word. They have also struck out at a rate of 28.6% versus lefties, nearly 2.5% more than second-worst Pittsburgh.
McClanahan has recorded over 7.5 strikeouts in 13 of his 24 starts this season, and against teams far better than Miami. I am stunned we can get the over at plus money today. Hammer it.
George Kirby Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Next, we turn our attention to Detroit, where the Tigers meet up with the Seattle Mariners. We have a battle of solid young starting pitchers with George Kirby taking the ball for Seattle and Detroit countering with Matt Manning.
Kirby has had a very strong rookie season with a 3.32 ERA, and an even better 3.20 SIERA and 3.27 xFIP. The strikeout rate is above average at 24.9% and the walk rate is an absolutely elite 3.2%. In fact, his walk rate is the best in all of baseball among starting pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched this season.
Kirby has recorded over 5.5 strikeouts in 10 of his 18 starts this season, including 4 of his last 5 starts. His excellent command allows him to pitch deep into games despite not having the longest of leashes. Seattle has been ultra conservative with him in the second half of the season as he has gone over 90 pitches just once in his last 7 starts.
While the short leash limits his upside a bit, his matchup today gives us plenty of reasons to be interested in the over. Detroit has been the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching with a 72 wRC+ and a .266 wOBA that ranks dead last. They are tied for the second highest strikeout rate against righties with a 25.1% rate.
Kirby should cruise through six innings in this one with 85-90 pitches. I like him to rack up over 5.5 strikeouts along the way.
Matt Manning Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+168)
On the other side of the game, Matt Manning may be in the midst of the breakout we have all been waiting for since he came into the league last season as one of baseball’s highest rated pitching prospects.
Manning has only made 7 starts so far this season as he dealt with a shoulder injury. The ERA is a sparkling 2.37 for the season, but there was definitely some luck involved, at least to start the season. The strikeout rate still sits below average at just 20.3%, but he has made improvements with a 5.3% walk rate.
In his first three starts this season, two prior to the injury and one in his return, he looked like the same low strikeout pitcher from his rookie season. The strikeouts were an abysmal 9.6% and the walk rate was up at 7.7%.
Manning has clearly turned a corner over the last four starts. The true breakout may have come in his last start against the Giants when he tossed 6 scoreless innings with 8 strikeouts and 0 walks, but he has been showing off improved skills for nearly a month now. The strikeout rate has come in well above average at 25.7% and the walks have been an elite 5.0%.
I am willing to fully buy into this breakout due to Manning’s prospect pedigree as a 9th overall pick. He also owns an illustrious minor league track record where he consistently posted strikeout rates around 30% as he climbed the ladder.
His matchup today is not the easiest against an above average Seattle offense, but they do have plenty of strikeouts in the lineup. The projected lineup has a 23.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching this season. Manning should face three batters who have been over 30% strikeouts to righties, and another two batters above 25%
With the improved skills he has displayed over the last month, I think he can rack up at least 5 strikeouts today. FanDuel is the only place I am seeing where the line is at 3.5, and I am fine paying a little juice to get it. I will gladly take the shot at 5+ strikeouts at big plus money as well. The alternate line of 5+ strikeouts at FanDuel is way better odds than the over 4.5 line that is available at most books.
Eys Breakers Prop Betting Card
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props, plus an alternate strikeout prop to target:
- Shane McClanahan Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110, DraftKings)
- George Kirby Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100, BetMGM)
- Matt Manning Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-142, FanDuel)
- Matt Manning 5+ Strikeouts (+168, FanDuel)
Make sure to check out the Picks section over at ScoresAndOdds. I have a couple more strikeout props I love posted over there. Good luck with your bets today!