Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Friday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Friday, June 10, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!
We have 15 games on the MLB schedule with all 30 teams in action this evening. All of the games get started at 7:05 ET or later.
Weather looks mostly clear across the country as well, with one possible exception in St. Louis, so we have plenty of options to choose from today.
Free MLB Strikeout Props Picks For Friday
Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-158)
Let’s start in Detroit, where the Tigers host the Toronto Blue Jays.
Jose Berrios will make his 12th start of the season for the Blue Jays, as he looks to continue righting the ship in what has been an uncharacteristically rough season for him.
Berrios owns a 5.24 ERA this year and his strikeouts are still under 20% despite exploding for 13 in his last outing. In addition to his long track record of success, the 4.24 SIERA and 4.37 xFIP suggest he has run into some bad luck and there should be some positive regression coming.
We may have seen that regression begin In his last start as Berrios posted one of the best starts of his career. He carved up his former team over 7 innings as he racked up 13 strikeouts. His curveball, which has been a negative pitch for him this year, was elite in that start as he generated eight whiffs while using it 34% of the time.
Hopefully, he can build on that incredible start and carry the momentum forward into this one. His matchup today certainly helps as well. Detroit has been one of the worst offenses in baseball this season. They rank second to last with a .269 wOBA and dead last with a 74 wRC+.
They have struck out at a 24.4% rate this season, which is the fifth highest rate in the league. Their strikeout rate increases to 25.0% when factoring in only right-handed pitchers, and their projected lineup today includes five batters with a strikeout rate above 28% versus righties. Berrios should be able to limit damage in this outstanding matchup, and I like him to go over 4.5 strikeouts.
Kyle Gibson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
In Philadelphia, the Phillies welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks to town for a three-game set. Kyle Gibson will take the mound for the Phillies in his 12th start of the year.
Gibson has been nothing special in his eleven starts, with a 4.40 ERA, a 21.6% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. He has been under 4.5 strikeouts in seven of those 11 starts, including in each of his last two.
His matchup against the Diamondbacks looks like a positive for strikeouts on paper, until we dig in a little deeper. The Dbacks have struck out at 25.1%, which is the second highest strikeout rate in the league. The issue for Gibson is they are rolling out eight left-handed batters. Gibson has struck out lefties at only a 12.6% rate this season. His career strikeout rate versus lefties is just 15.7%.
He also pitches in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, and it is nearly 80 degrees in Philly, with the wind blowing out slightly to right field.
I think the Diamondbacks are able to have some success against Gibson today and run his pitch count up. His lack of strikeout ability versus lefties should keep him under 4.5 strikeouts.
Roansy Contreras Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Next we look to Atlanta, where the Braves continue their four-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Rookie right-hander Roansy Contreras makes just the fifth start of his career.
Contreras made a major leap up prospect boards last year, as he saw an uptick in fastball velocity to the upper-90s. The result was a strikeout rate of nearly 35% in AA in 2021.
He began this season as the long man in the Pittsburgh bullpen, before being sent down to be stretched out as a starter. He posted a 28.9% strikeout rate in AAA before being recalled to join the Pittsburgh rotation on May 24th. He has since posted solid starts against Colorado and San Diego despite being on a limited pitch count.
In his last start, we saw Contreras unleashed, as he was allowed to throw 98 pitches against Arizona. The result was 5.2 innings without allowing an earned run and eight strikeouts.
Contreras will look to build off that breakout start in a matchup with Atlanta today. The Braves have been red hot, but they are still striking out a lot. They own the league’s highest strikeout rate at 26.2% this season. There is some risk Atlanta can get to Contreras and really spike the pitch count, but I believe in the stuff, and think he is able to limit the damage today.
There is upside here for more than a strikeout per inning in this matchup. The line is a bit low considering his elite strikeout rate in the minors and breakout start against Arizona. Give me Contreras over 4.5 strikeouts today.
Luis Garcia Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118)
Down in Houston, the Astros take on the Miami Marlins. Luis Garcia will make his 11th start of the season for the Astros.
Garcia has been great this year as he has posted a 3.07 ERA with 23.5% strikeouts and 7.1% walks. The strikeouts are down slightly from last year, but that may just be the result of his recent opponents. Three of his last four opponents rank among the top ten for lowest strikeout rates in MLB, and one of those was Cleveland who has the lowest strikeout rate in the league. The last time he had a positive matchup for strikeouts, he struck out 9 Tigers in 7 innings.
Today, he gets a matchup with the Marlins, who have struck out at 23.3% this season – the tenth highest rate in the league. Their projected lineup today includes only one batter who has struck out less than 19.8% versus right-handed pitching this year. Five of the projected batters have struck out over 24.5% of the time versus righties.
Garcia doesn’t have the longest leash, but he should get his typical 85-90 pitches to work with. He has consistently been in that range over his last six starts.
The plus money on this prop makes the over the value side, so give me Garcia to go over 5.5 strikeouts.
Eys Breakers Expert Picks For Today
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify four strikeout props to target:
- Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-158, FanDuel)
- Kyle Gibson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105, DraftKings)
- Roansy Contreras Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145, BetMGM)
- Luis Garcia Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118, FanDuel)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!