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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – Same Game Parlay Picks for MNF Using Parlay IQ (9/19/22)

Keith Eyster Wed 9/21 11:54am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives FREE same game parlay picks for Monday Night Football using the state-of-the-art Parlay IQ tool!

Happy Monday everyone! Well, if you play NFL DFS, I guess it is only a “happy” Monday if you played Amon-Ra St. Brown or double-stacked Tua Tagovailoa in tournaments. Maybe you got there with a Baltimore stack as well. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown was one of my favorite plays of the week, and I was well overweight in tournaments, but somehow I decided to roll out a cash team that excluded him. Needless to say, that did not turn out well. 

The good thing is we get more NFL action tonight with a Monday night double-header going down this evening. 

Bills vs. Titans – Same Game Parlay

The Bills welcome the Tennessee Titans to town on Monday. The Bills are 10-point favorites in this one, as Josh Allen looks to continue his run as an MVP contender this season. 

I want to back the Bills, but laying -460 juice on a moneyline is never something I like to do. Good news! We have a wonderful new tool called ParlayIQ at ScoresAndOdds to help you build plus expected value Same Game Parlays. 

I spent some time this weekend getting familiar with the new tool and something I think is going to be incredibly valuable with this tool is building a correlated Same Game Parlay.

The tool essentially simulates a game thousands of times to find +EV bets. Then you are able to enter bets into a Betslip, and with one click of a button you can go directly to the FanDuel Sportsbook to place your parlay bet. Let me explain a little further below. 

The screenshot above is the betslip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the betslip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut. 

The first bet I placed into the betslip was the Bills’ moneyline. According to the simulations, the Bills have a 68% chance to win the game. After entering the Bills ML, the tool suggests other bets that are most likely to hit based on your previous selections. 

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Derrick Henry over 10.5 receiving yards popped up with a 67% chance of hitting. I love this prop bet tonight as Titans’ receiving back Dontrell Hilliard has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury. We are expecting the Titans to play from behind as 10-point underdogs on the road which could lead to a pass-heavy game script. Henry is not typically featured in the passing game, but we could have a perfect storm for him to be involved tonight. He can literally hit the over here with one screen pass. 

The next bet I added was Treylon Burks over 30.5 receiving yards, with a 64% hit rate according to the simulations. I just discussed the expected game script for a trailing Tennessee team, and adding in another prop to further tell that story makes a lot of sense. Burks only played 37% of snaps in Week 1, but he still earned a 16% target share. He finished with 3 receptions on 5 targets for 55 yards. I expect him to be even more involved tonight, especially if we get the game script we are telling with this parlay.

Check out this tutorial on how to use Parlay IQ in real time!

As you can see in the SAO screenshot, this parlay hit in 29% of the 4,848 simulations that were run. The expected odds should be +244 according to the 29% implied hit rate. Here is the really cool part…

After clicking the “place bets” shortcut, you can see the actual odds on FanDuel are +309. We can get great value on our correlated parlay. I absolutely love this tool and cannot wait to get even more familiar with everything it has to offer. I encourage you to try it out for yourself while it is still FREE!

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