Eys Breakers: 4 MLB Strikeout Props To Target Monday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Monday, May 23, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!
We have 12 games on the MLB schedule this evening. Temperatures have heated up across the country and we are starting to see more offense across the league.
The only weather spot looks to be in Washington, D.C., where they will have to play through some rain if they intend on getting this one in tonight. The rain creates added risk for starting pitchers having a short outing, so I always check to see if there is an opportunity for an under in these situations. A young right-hander is on the mound for Nats against a powerful and patient Dodgers lineup, so that’s where we will start today.
MLB Strikeout Prop Picks For Today
Joan Adon Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)
The Washington Nationals welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers to town for a three game set. Joan Adon makes his ninth start of the season for the Nationals.
Adon has had a rough go of it in his rookie season. His ERA sits at a lofty 6.38, and estimators are not kind either – 6.45 xERA, 5.09 xFIP. His strikeouts are well below average at 18.1% and his walks are sky high at 13.5%.
He gets a matchup with one of the league’s best offenses in the Los Angeles Dodgers. They rank first in MLB with a .330 wOBA and third with a 116 wRC+. The Dodgers have struck out at only a 21.6% rate this season, and they lead the majors with an 11.1% walk rate. This is just a brutal matchup for young Mr. Adon.
There is a legitimate chance the Dodgers knock Adon out of the game before the end of the first inning. If he does manage to limit the damage, the Dodgers’ patience should cause the pitch count to climb rapidly. There are multiple factors pointing to this being a very short outing for Adon in addition to the threat of rain looming.
Give me Adon under 3.5 strikeouts today.
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Next, we head down to Atlanta where the Braves take on the Philadelphia Phillies. Zack Wheeler takes the ball for the Phillies in his eighth start of the season.
Wheeler was dealing with some shoulder soreness in spring training and got off to a bit of a slow start this year. He has been back to his old dominant self in his recent outings, however. He has run off four-straight starts with at least 7 strikeouts, with tough matchups against the Dodgers and Padres in there.
The season numbers are beginning to look familiar, as the strikeouts are up to 25.9% and the walks are down at 6.3% for the year. His strikeout rate over the last four starts is all the way up at 31.3%.
The matchup with Atlanta comes with some risk, but they have also struck out a ton this year. In fact, they lead MLB with a 26.0% strikeout rate this season.
Wheeler has a long leash that we can rely on as well. He has been at or above 90 pitches in three of his last four starts.
I expect Wheeler to continue with his great recent form and go over 6.5 strikeouts today.
Adrian Houser Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Let’s head out west to San Diego where the Padres take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Adrian Houser makes his eighth start of the season for the Brewers.
I must admit, when I went shopping for Houser’s prop lines, I had an under in mind. I was shocked to find the line sitting at 3.5 strikeouts.
Houser has been very good this year, although the strikeouts are below average at 19.6%. He owns a 3.22 ERA that is backed up by a 3.69 xERA and 3.90 xFIP.
Milwaukee has also been very generous with his leash. Houser has been at or above 90 pitches in five of his seven starts this year, and he has gone over 100 pitches in two of those starts. The leash helps offset the below average strikeout rate. Houser has had at least 4 strikeouts in 4 of his 7 starts this year, and he had exactly 3 strikeouts in each of the other starts.
San Diego has a reputation as a low-strikeout team, but they have been right around average this year at 22.2%. Their projected lineup today has struck out at a 24.1% rate versus right-handed pitching this season. They project to have 4 batters in the lineup with a strikeout rate above 26.5% this year.
Ultimately, we are talking about a very low-strikeout line for a fully stretched out starting pitcher. I like Houser over 3.5 strikeouts today.
Alex Cobb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-131)
Finally, we look to San Francisco, where the Giants take on the New York Mets. The Giants send Alex Cobb to the mound for the seventh time this season.
Cobb was perhaps the pitcher I was most excited to bet on as the season started ramping up. There were multiple reports out of Giants camp that Cobb was flashing electric stuff with a massive spike in velocity. He made good on those reports with 10 strikeouts in his first start of the year. The injury bug bit him in his second start of the season and he is just now getting back on track after a hamstring issue.
Cobb’s surface numbers don’t look great as his ERA sits at 5.61 for the season, but you would be doing him a disservice if you stopped there. His 1.75 xERA and 2.36 xFIP more accurately paint the picture of what kind of pitcher Cobb is at this point. His strikeout rate sits at 28.1% despite dealing with the injury and a Coors Field start.
Cobb finally reached the 90-pitch mark in his last start and I am excited to see what he can do with a full leash in Oracle Park.
The matchup is not ideal against the Mets, but they have cooled off a bit after a scorching hot start to the season. They still rank sixth with a 111 wRC+ and have only struck out 19.8% of the time this season. There are only two bats in the projected lineup with a strikeout rate above 25%, so we are putting some faith in Cobb’s pitch arsenal here.
I believe Cobb will finish this season as an elite-strikeout pitcher and he is not getting that respect at the sportsbooks currently. These prop lines are based more on his career body of work than the pitcher he has molded himself into. Hopefully, he proves that today. I am taking him over 4.5 strikeouts.
Free Expert Betting Card For Today
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify four pitcher’s strikeout props to target:
- Joan Adon Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105, DraftKings)
- Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-104, FanDuel)
- Adrian Houser Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-105, DraftKings)
- Alex Cobb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-131, Caesars)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!