Eys Breakers: 5 MLB Strikeout Props To Target Tuesday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Tuesday, May 24, 2022. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!
We have a full 15-game schedule in MLB today. It is absolutely loaded with pitching talent, so it should be a fun day.
Weather looks to be clear for the majority of the games, with Atlanta being the exception. Kevin Roth at RotoGrinders thinks we need to pay close attention to that one.
Let’s get started in Minnesota, where the Twins take on the Detroit Tigers.
Free MLB Expert Picks For Today
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Sonny Gray takes the ball for Minnesota in his sixth start of the season.
Gray dealt with a hamstring injury early in the year and is just now fully ramped back up. He threw 82 pitches two starts ago against Cleveland, and was up to 84 pitches last time out against Oakland. He likely could have gone another inning against Oakland, but the Twins were up big, and there was no reason to push him. Tonight, Gray should be able to go over the 90-pitch mark for the first time this season.
Gray has been solid, despite dealing with the hamstring issue. He owns a 3.48 ERA, 3.52 xERA and 3.20 xFIP. The strikeouts are up at 28.7% while walks have been a bit high at 10.3%.
His matchup today against the Tigers is as good as it gets. They have struck out at a 23.9% rate this season, while walking at the third lowest rate (7.2%) in baseball. That walk rate is particularly helpful for Gray’s chances to pitch deep into the game as he can struggle with the walks at times.
The Tigers projected lineup is full of strikeouts. They have collectively struck out at a 27.2% rate versus right-handed pitching this year with 6 batters sitting above 28.5% strikeout rates.
Gray should be able to cruise through this lineup and go over 5.5 strikeouts.
Pablo Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-148)
Down in Tampa, the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays square off in a battle of Florida teams. The pitching matchup between Pablo Lopez and Shane McClanahan is outstanding in this game. I think we can expect very few runs and a lot of strikeouts in this one.
Pablo Lopez has been brilliant this season. He owns a 1.57 ERA with a 27.0% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. He has been over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his eight starts this season.
Lopez is coming off his worst start of the season where he could not find his control against the Nationals. He issued 3 walks and threw 82 pitches in only 3 innings before the Marlins decided to pull the plug. I expect him to get back on track today.
He gets a good matchup with the Rays who have struck out at a 23.1% rate this season. They also rank in the bottom 10 with a 7.7% walk rate. Their projected lineup today has struck out at a rate of 25.1% versus right-handed pitching this season.
Lopez also has a very healthy leash. He was at 97 pitches or more in four of his five starts prior to his dud last time out. He will also make this start in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball.
There are plenty of factors here that should allow Lopez to return to dominant form. I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts today.
Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Next, we look to St. Louis, where the Cardinals face off against the Toronto Blue Jays. Kevin Gausman looks to return to dominant form after scuffling a bit in his last start.
Gausman was still very good in his last start, but he just wasn’t as dominant as he had been up to that point in the season. He gave up his first home run of the season and allowed 7 hits over 5 innings. Seattle still only scored 2 runs off him, but Gausman only managed 3 strikeouts.
The overall body of work for the season is still excellent. Gausman owns a 2.52 ERA with a 28.9% strikeout rate, and he has issued only 3 walks in 50.0 innings this season.
The matchup against the Cardinals is a very difficult one. Their strikeout rate of 19.1% is the lowest rate in baseball. They don’t have a single batter in the lineup with a strikeout rate above 20% versus right-handed pitching this season.
With the difficult matchup, we will need some length out of Gausman to clear this prop. The good news is he has frequently pitched through the 6th inning. He has 3 starts of 7 innings or more this season. Before his last outing, he had thrown 98 pitches or more in 3 straight starts.
We are also getting a slight discount on the strikeout line due to the matchup. Gausman’s strikeout prop is frequently at 6.5 with juice on the over. Today, we are seeing a line of 5.5 strikeouts near even money.
Gausman’s elite control and long leash give me the confidence he can pitch deep enough into this game to go over 5.5 strikeouts.
George Kirby Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Out in Oakland, the Athletics take on the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners will send rookie right-hander George Kirby to the mound for the fourth start of his career.
Kirby was very good in his first two starts before getting blown up against Boston in his last one. He has had three very difficult matchups to begin his career against the Red Sox, Rays and Mets. The strikeouts are down at 17.7%, but the control has been outstanding with only 3.3% walks.
Kirby has been a high strikeout pitcher in the minors, and I expect we see the stuff play very well here against this bad Oakland offense. He never had a strikeout rate below 25% at any stop on his way to the big leagues.
I mentioned the difficult matchups for Kirby over his first three starts, but today, he gets one of the best matchups in baseball. Oakland has struggled to a league-lowest .266 wOBA, and their 79 wRC+ puts them 21% worse than a league-average offense. They have struck out at 24.2% which is seventh highest in MLB, and have walked at only 7.5% which ranks fourth worst.
Kirby should be able to dominate the Athletics and I like him to go over 4.5 strikeouts.
Corbin Burnes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-136)
Finally, we look to San Diego, where the Padres take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes takes the mound for the Brewers.
Burnes has struggled with the long ball lately, allowing a home run in each of his last four starts. He allowed two of them in his last start against Atlanta.
Despite his struggles with the home run, Burnes has still been elite this year. He owns a 2.26 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate. He has been over 6.5 strikeouts in six of his eight starts this year.
The leash for Burnes is among the longest in baseball. He has been at 95 pitches or more in each of his last 7 starts. He has pitched through the sixth inning in each of those starts, and made it through seven innings in four of them.
The matchup against San Diego is not as difficult as you might assume. They have actually been slightly below average this season with a 98 wRC+, and their .302 wOBA ranks just 19th in MLB. They have struck out at a 22.0% rate this season, and their projected lineup has 4 batters that have struck out over 25% of the time versus right-handed pitching.
Burnes should be able to successfully navigate this average lineup and pitch into the late innings. I like him to rack up over 6.5 strikeouts along the way.
Eys Breakers For Tuesday
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify five pitcher’s strikeout props to target:
- Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140, DraftKings)
- Pablo Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-148, FanDuel)
- Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105, DraftKings)
- George Kirby Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110, BetMGM)
- Corbin Burnes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-136, FanDuel)
Let’s enjoy this absolutely loaded night of talented pitching. Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!