Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Tuesday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today — Tuesday, July 26, 2022.
We have a full schedule in MLB today with all 30 teams in action. The Pirates and Cubs start us off this afternoon, while everything else takes place this evening.
There are some weather concerns in a few important spots today, including Baltimore where one of the top pitchers of the day is scheduled to start.
I bet McClanahan over 7.5 strikeouts near even money when the line first opened, so I am really hoping the weather holds off in this one. The juice on the over is all the way up to -160 in some places at this point, and I have to recommend passing with the weather risk despite absolutely loving him in this spot.
The other high-risk spot for weather is in Kansas City, but I am not interested in pitching there anyway. Philadelphia and Denver have slight risks but not enough to take me off anything. Stay tuned to the RotoGrinders weather page for Kevin Roth’s updates throughout the day.
- Editor’s Note: Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!
Free MLB Player Props Picks For Today
Spencer Strider Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Let’s get started in Philadelphia with an amazing pitching matchup between two NL East rivals. The Atlanta Braves gave up a late lead last night and dropped a tough one to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves look to rebound today with young phenom Spencer Strider taking the mound while the Phillies counter with one of their best in Aaron Nola.
We have cashed multiple tickets on Spencer Strider since his move into the rotation, but he finally let us down in his last start against Washington. While he only walked two batters, he had all kinds of trouble locating his pitches. He fell into several deep counts, and ultimately gave up a few hits when forced back into the zone. I expect him to make the necessary adjustments and get back on track today.
Strider’s overall numbers are still dazzling, including a 3.03 ERA and an elite 37.9% strikeout rate. The walks remain a concern at 10%, and it is possible the Braves start shortening the leash to preserve him down the stretch. We saw that a bit in Washington when he was pulled after only 77 pitches, but I think they still let him get up to 100 pitches when things are going well for him.
His matchup today looks great against Philadelphia, who remains without Bryce Harper. The top four batters in the projected lineup have struck out at least 26% of the time versus right-handed pitching this year, and the lineup has collectively struck out at 23.2% versus righties. They also have only walked 7.1% of the time, which should help mitigate one of Strider’s biggest weaknesses.
We have seen Strider rack up multiple strikeouts per inning on several occasions this season, and I like him to turn in that type of performance today. Give me the over on 7.5 strikeouts.
Aaron Nola Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-105)
On the other side of the game, Aaron Nola will make his 20th start of the season as Philly tries to climb back into the division race. He has put together another phenomenal season with a 3.13 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and a 3.3% walk rate that is the best in baseball among qualified starting pitchers.
Philadelphia is likely to lean heavily on Nola today in an important divisional matchup with one of the teams ahead of them in the standings. Nola has faced Atlanta twice this season and he threw at least 109 pitches in both starts. His last start against them lasted 7 innings and he recorded 8 strikeouts. His first start was even better as he made it 8.1 innings with 10 strikeouts.
Atlanta continues to strike out a ton this year as their 24.8% strikeout rate is the third highest in baseball. Every batter in the projected lineup has struck out at least 21% of the time versus right-handed pitching, and seven of them have struck out at least 24.5% of the time.
Nola should be out there for well over 100 pitches again while lasting into the late innings of this game. I expect him to take advantage of the Braves high whiff rates again and go over 7.5 strikeouts.
Mike Clevinger Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Finally, we look to Detroit, where the Tigers host the San Diego Padres. Mike Clevinger will make his 10th start of the season for San Diego.
Clevinger has battled injuries all season long and has just recently begun to see his leash extended. The overall numbers are solid with a 3.50 ERA, 24.7% strikeout rate, and 7.7% walk rate.
Clevinger appears to finally be at full strength this season as he has put together five straight starts over 80 pitches, including two of the last three over 90 pitches. He made it through 6 innings for the first time this season four starts ago against Arizona, and has now done it in three of his last four starts.
Today, he gets one of the best matchups in all of baseball against Detroit. The Tigers have been abysmal on offense with 76 wRC+ that ranks dead last and a .275 wOBA that ranks second-worst in MLB. They have struck out at a rate of 23.4%, which is the seventh highest rate in the league.
Their projected lineup today has struck out at a rate of 25.2% versus right-handed pitching this season, while walking only 6.6% of the time. There is not a single hitter in the lineup with a wOBA above .306 or an ISO above .139 versus righties this season.
Clevinger is set up in the best possible spot today, and the last four starts give us some confidence in the leash. He should be able to make it through 6 innings today against this woeful Tigers lineup. I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts today.
Eys Breakers’ Betting Card For Tuesady
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target:
- Spencer Strider Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-105, DraftKings)
- Aaron Nola Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-105, BetMGM)
- Mike Clevinger Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115, BetMGM)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!