Eys Breakers: Keith’s Encore After 4-0 Sweep Of MLB Props Yesterday!
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB prop bets for today — Wednesday, May 18, 2022. Keith was a perfect 4-0 on Tuesday, as he looks to run it back tonight! Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting baseball props now!
We have 15 games on the MLB schedule Wednesdasy, which are scattered throughout the day. Five games get going this afternoon, so we will focus on the 10 games starting at 6:10 ET (or later), as we look to keep the hot streak rolling.
The game in Cleveland between the Guardians and Reds appears to be the only one with significant weather risk. Philadelphia and Baltimore could see some light rain, but nothing that puts either game in serious jeopardy.
Expert MLB Strikeout Prop Picks For Today
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Let’s get started north of the border, where the Toronto Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners.
Kevin Gausman will make his eighth start of the season and he has been nothing short of brilliant this year.
Gausman owns a 2.40 ERA with a 30.9% strikeout rate. He has issued only 2 walks all season and has not allowed a single home run. His 18.3% swing strike rate is the best among qualified starters in baseball.
Gausman has recorded at least 8 strikeouts in 5 of 7 starts this year. In one of those other two starts, which he failed to eclipse this number, Gausman didn’t have a full leash, while the other occasion was against Cleveland, who has the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league.
Seattle has been around league average with a 21.9% strikeout rate. The top part of the projected order have all been high-contact guys this season, but there are plenty of strikeouts at the bottom of the order.
Gausman has thrown over 6 innings in each of his last three starts and should be able to pitch deep into the game again. His elite control helps to keep his pitch count down, and the strikeout ability allows him a chance to get out of any jams.
I like Gausman to go over 6.5 strikeouts tonight.
Nick Pivetta Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Next, we look to Fenway Park, where the Boston Red Sox take on the Houston Astros. Nick Pivetta will make his eighth start of the season for Boston.
Pivetta has experienced struggles this season and owns a 5.08 ERA. However, estimators are mixed on his performance, as his 5.43 xERA is above his results, but his 4.01 xFIP suggests he has been a little unlucky. Either way, I think it is fair to say he has been below average this season and his matchup today is a very difficult one.
Pivetta is around league average with a 22.8% strikeout rate, but that comes with a 9.7% walk rate. The matchup against the Astros is difficult for multiple reasons. They strikeout out only 21.4% of the time, and they walk at the seventh-highest rate (9.7%) in the league. They are sixth in baseball with a .325 wOBA and second with a 120 wRC+.
Additionally, Pivetta is a flyball pitcher in a home run friendly ballpark. I think the Astros have a good amount of success against him today and it leads to a pretty short outing for Pivetta. The combination of power and patience in the Houston offense lines up perfectly to take advantage of Pivetta’s weaknesses.
Pivetta probably issues a few too many walks and allows a home run or two. I like him to exit the game before the end of the sixth inning and stay under 4.5 strikeouts.
Drew Smyly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Finally, we head over to Wrigley Field, where the Chicago Cubs take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Drew Smyly takes the ball for the Cubs in his seventh start of the season.
Smyly has received good results this season with a 3.64 ERA, but his strikeout rate sits at just 16.7%. He has not pitched deep into games. In fact, his last start of 6 innings marked a season high. Smyly failed to make it through 5 innings in three of his four starts prior to that, and was at exactly 5 innings in the other one.
He gets a good matchup with a weak Pittsburgh offense today. The Pirates have been significantly below league average, as their 86 wRC+ suggests, but they have not struck out much against left-handed pitching. Their projected lineup today has struck out only 17.9% of the time against lefties this year.
Smylyl has recorded exactly 4 strikeouts in each of his last five starts. This will be his third start against the Pirates already this season. He had 4 strikeouts in 5 innings back on 4/22, and he recorded only 1 strikeout in 5 innings against them in his first start of the season.
Smyly’s shorter leash and the Pirates contact ability vs LHP should combine to keep him under 4.5 strikeouts again today.
Eys Breakers Betting Card For Today
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three pitcher’s strikeout props to target:
- Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100, DraftKings)
- Nick Pivetta Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140, DraftKings)
- Drew Smyly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110, FanDuel)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!