Tides’ Takes: Free Expert Picks For Today- MLB Player Props (7/1/22)

Our betting analysts are backing Byron Buxton over his total bases prop on Thursday
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ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for Friday’s MLB games.

Happy Friday everyone and welcome to the month of July! Throughout the week, I will be giving out a few of my favorite MLB prop bets that you can find for free right here at ScoresAndOdds. Make sure to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.  

MLB Expert Props Picks For Friday

I know that this looks strange, but I do think this is a good bet.  Watkins has gone over this total in half of his eight starts and hasn’t had a game with more than four strikeouts all season. This Twins’ team should have no problems getting to Watkins and forcing him to leave early. Watkins has an 11.2% K rate, which is truly laughable, not to mention he has not gone more than 81 pitches all season. The Twins rank just outside the top-10 in strikeouts, which aren’t a problem for this team. I really like the odds you are getting in a wager that I think is far better than a 50/50 proposition. 

You know my thoughts about Spenser Watkins, now it’s time to put some of our money on the bats that will be going up against him. The odds of Buxton’s home run prop is not high for me to feel comfortable putting a wager on him, so I decided to get the over 1.5 bases instead. He is projected to bat leadoff, and even though they are the home team, I expect him to get five at bats (two against Watkins and three against a terrible bullpen). If Buxton wasn’t so injury prone, he would be one of the best offensive producers in all of baseball, but injuries have really derailed him. Buxton is a true stud when he’s healthy and is in the same talent tier as Trout, Acuna, Soto and company. I thought we would either see higher juice on a 1.5 total base line, or they would put the total up at 2.5, so I consider this -125 juice a bargain.  

I feel like I have to get exposure to Watkins in the home run prop market and I think Polanco offers the best bang for your buck.  Polanco was on the IL for a couple of weeks and came back two games ago, belting a home run and three RBI’s in his first game. Temperature will be in the lower 80’s in Minnesota, with the wind blowing out to right-center field. This looks like great hitting conditions for the Twins to put up homers today.  Polanco is also is a switch-hitter, meaning he will always have the platoon advantage when the Twins inevitably get to the Orioles’ bullpen. 

If you think the Twins are in a good spot for hitting, it’s nothing compared to the Diamondbacks’ spot. Arizona gets arguably the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball – in the best hitting park in all of baseball. Antonio Senzatela has a 12.5% K rate and a 5.85 xERA. Those are about as bad as it gets for a major-league starting pitcher. There is merit to attacking the home run props with Thomas and Walker, but I think the value is much better in the total bases prop.