Free Expert Picks: MLB Player Props, Best Bets For Sunday (SEA vs. OAK)

Sports Betting analyst Nick Galaida gives his best MLB player props picks for today’s Mariners vs. Athletics game — Sunday, July 3, 2022.

On Sunday afternoon, the Oakland Athletics and the Seattle Mariners will conclude a three-game set at T-Mobile Park. Oakland took the series opener on Friday by a final score of 3-1, but collapsed in the late innings on Saturday in a 2-1 defeat. In the rubber match, the Athletics will send Frankie Montas to the hill, who will be opposed by Robbie Ray. MLB Oddsmakers anticipate Seattle securing a series victory, pricing them as -154 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the starting-pitching matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this contest.

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Mariners vs. Athletics – Free MLB Player Props Picks

Frankie Montas Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Frankie Montas has been one of the few bright spots for the Athletics in 2022, with a 3.20 ERA, 3.30 xERA, and a 3.19 FIP through 16 turns in the rotation. Montas has been even better of late, posting a 2.73 ERA and a 2.84 FIP in nine trips to the mound since May 15th. In that span, Montas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his nine outings, and has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of those starts. 

This afternoon, Montas gets a rematch with a Seattle lineup that he held scoreless across eight frames on June 23rd. Entering play, the Mariners rank 15th in OPS, 13th in ISO, 4th in walk percentage, and 20th in strikeout percentage across the last two weeks of action. Seattle is particularly vulnerable today against Montas, who ranks in the 66th percentile in Whiff percentage and the 88th percentile in chase rate in 2022. In the last two weeks, Seattle ranks 14th in O-Swing%, 16th in O-Contact%, 25th in Z-Contact%, 19th in Contact%, 20th in SwStr%, and 18th in CSW%. Expect the Mariners to continue swinging-and-missing at pitches outside of the strike zone in this one. Take the over at even money on BetMGM on Montas’s strikeout prop in this spot.   

Robbie Ray Under 7.5 Strikeouts

In our preseason preview of the Seattle starting rotation, we mentioned that Robbie Ray’s 2021 success was going to be difficult to sustain in 2022. Not only did Ray outperform his underlying metrics by nearly a full run last year, but his limited pitch arsenal has given opposing lineups the opportunity to put much better at-bats against him this season, as we predicted. Through 16 turns in the rotation, Ray owns a 3.78 ERA, 3.59 xERA, and a 4.03 FIP. He has seen noticeable regression in his strikeout and walk percentages. A diminished ability to earn strikeouts, combined with a return of some command issues has unsurprisingly had a negative impact on his run prevention metrics as well.

On Sunday, Ray gets an extremely favorable matchup against one of the worst offenses in baseball. However, this might not be the best to invest in the southpaw from a strikeout perspective. Across their last 151 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, the Athletics have a 15.2 strikeout percentage, which is the best in baseball in that span by a significant margin. Ray ranks in the 84th percentile in Whiff percentage in 2022, but the combination of this being a proximity matchup with the fact that Oakland has been a high-contact team of late could make his current market price too high. Ray’s under (currently on FanDuel) is the smart lean in this spot.