Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Monday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today – Monday, August 22, 2022.
We have a short slate in MLB today with just nine games on the schedule. The White Sox and Royals get started this afternoon, while the other eight games take place later this evening.
In addition to the short slate, we have some weather issues to monitor. New York will definitely see some rain this afternoon, but Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth says it should clear up by gametime. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are also worth monitoring as there is a chance of delay in each of those games.
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Free MLB Player Props Picks For Monday
Domingo German Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)
We get started with the Subway Series in New York between the Mets and Yankees. The Mets send Max Scherzer to the mound, and the Yankees will counter with Domingo German.
German missed most of the season recovering from a shoulder injury, and today will be just his 7th start of the season. He has been inconsistent in his return to the big leagues with a 4.45 ERA. Estimators such as SIERA (4.52) and xFIP (4.69) agree that German has been below average thus far. His strikeout rate of 18.5% and ground ball rate of 33.3% also leave plenty of room for concern.
German has been over 4.5 strikeouts in just two of his six starts this season. One of those starts did come against the Mets team he faces today, but that start was in pitcher-friendly Citi Field rather than hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium like today.
German gets a very tough matchup against a Mets offense that has been elite this season. They have been the 2nd best offense in baseball versus right-handed pitching with a 118 wRC+ and a .332 wOBA. They have also struck out at only a 19.9% rate versus righties which is the 2nd lowest in MLB. German projects to face 6 lefties in the Mets lineup today, and he has only managed to strike out 10.8% of the lefties he has faced this season.
The ballpark upgrade for the Mets bats could also present big problems for German. He has allowed over 48% fly balls to lefties this season and Yankee Stadium is notoriously friendly for lefty home runs.
German has not been over 90 pitches in any of his 6 starts this season, and was pulled after just 71 pitches in his last start when he ran into some trouble in the 5th inning. I think the Mets are able to run up the pitch count on German and we see similar struggles in the middle innings that lead to an early exit. I like him to stay under 4.5 strikeouts today.
Jake Odorizzi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Next, we look to PNC Park in Pittsburgh, where the Pirates host the Atlanta Braves. Jake Odorizzi takes the ball for the visiting Braves in his 16th start of the season.
Odorizzi has pitched to a 4.15 ERA this season split between Houston and Atlanta. He has been fortunate to get anything near average results according to his 4.77 SIERA and 4.85 xFIP. His strikeout rate sits well-below average at 17.8% for the season, and it is all the way down at 11.8% in his three starts with the Braves.
Odorizzi has only been over 4.5 strikeouts in 4 of his 15 starts this season. His matchup today against Pittsburgh is not a daunting one, but they are an extremely left-handed offense. The Pirates project to send 8 lefties to the plate against Odorizzi today, and he has only struck out 13.2% of the lefties he has faced this season.
Odorizzi is probably able to have some success today against a weak Pittsburgh offense, but his below average strikeout rate, particularly against lefties, should keep him under 4.5 strikeouts today.
Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Finally we head out to Oakland, where the Athletics face off against the Miami Marlins. Edward Cabrera will make his 7th start of the season for Miami.
Cabrera has been excellent since being recalled from the minors and is starting to realize some of his potential that has him highly regarded among baseball’s top pitching prospects. He has a 1.78 ERA on the season, although there is definitely some luck involved there as he has an unsustainable .209 BABIP and a ridiculous 90.4% strand rate.
His 3.79 SIERA and 3.75 xFIP still place him as an above-average starter this season. He has been well-above average with a 28.8% strikeout rate, and well-below average with a 12.8% walk rate.
Cabrera has rattled off three straight scoreless outings with at least six strikeouts in each of them. The last two included tough matchups against the Phillies and Padres. He struck out 8 Cubs over 5 no-hit innings in the start before those two.
Today, Cabrera gets a great matchup against Oakland. The Athletics have been a bottom-feeding offense all season long with an 85 wRC+ and a .277 wOBA that ranks second worst in the league. They have struck out more than league average at 23.2% as well.
I expect some regression from him in the run prevention department, but I don’t think it necessarily comes today. Cabrera should be able to overmatch this weak Oakland offense and go over 5.5 strikeouts today.
Today’s Player Props Betting Card
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target:
- Domingo German Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+102, FanDuel)
- Jake Odorizzi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-134, FanDuel)
- Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!