Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks, Props & Outrights: 2023 American Express
ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for every PGA event.
For the purpose of this column, I will be focusing mostly on H2H matchup, outright tournament winners, and live bets!
Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.
The 2023 American Express
Congratulations to Si-Woo Kim on his fourth-career PGA Tour victory, as he was able to hold off Hayden Buckley by one shot to take home the title.
We were never really a threat to cash any of our outright tickets. Taylor Montgomery was the 36-hole leader, but lost major ground by only managing to shoot even par on Saturday on his way to a T12 finish.
The Tour now heads to La Quinta California for the American Express. This is a very unique event where we don’t play just one course, we actually play a rotation of three different one.
Each player will play one round at each course, which means the cut is after 54 holes. All three courses are a par 72. PGA West, (The Stadium Course) will be played on Sunday and is the most challenging of the three.
Another interesting wrinkle of this event is that it’s a pro-am. In those types of events, the rounds can last around six hours! The setup for the course is usually much easier Thursday through Saturday, while the amateurs are on the course, and it’s made a little more challenging on the pros come Sunday.
Some players really don’t like how this event is structured, that being said, they are professionals and try to stay focused as much as possible.
When looking at the field this week, we see a pretty massive difference in the strength compared to last week. The likes of Rahm, Finau, Scheffler, Cantlay, Schauffele and Zalatoris will all be in the field this week.
I expect some big names to be at the top of the leaderboard. However, it’s a wide-open field due to the high dependence on putting required at these courses.
Jon Rahm is currently the betting favorite at 6.5-1, while Scottie Scheffler is just behind him coming in at 10-1.
Rahm has specifically stated that this event is just a putting contest and doesn’t like the setup of the golf course. Given the sentiment regarding the course, he is a firm no for me. Scottie Scheffler’s worst club is indeed his putter, and given the number of strokes gained that will be required putting, I am also out on him.
Let’s work our way down the betting board to see if we can find some better value to take shots on this week.
Free PGA Betting Picks: 2023 American Express
- Tom Hoge 40-1 (BetMGM)
Tom Hoge finished second at this tournament last year despite losing .29 strokes with the putter. That is a truly impressive start, considering how vital putting is to success at this tournament. He had another great finish here in 2021, where he finished sixth. Two great finishes in three years definitely peaks my interest from a consistent golfer like Hoge.
Last week, he really struggled with parts of his game, but he did finish ninth in strokes-gained approach. If you go back the last 50 rounds, Hoge is number two in strokes-gained approach. This guy can really get dialed in with his irons. In a birdie fest like this, that is what is going to be required from the winner.
- Taylor Montgomery 45-1 (BetMGM)
I promise I will take a few weeks off from burning more outright tickets on Taylor Montgomery if he doesn’t hit this week. That is if the number doesn’t keep dropping! He has such a consistent skill set and high upside it is hard not to give him another go.
If it weren’t for one bad round on Saturday, he would have been right there on the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. It really will be just a matter of time before he breaks through, and getting him anything under 30-1 will be impossible.
He is the number-one putter on tour in the last 12 months. In a tournament that is considered by stat geeks and players alike as a putting contest, he is the type of player you want on your betting card.
- Cameron Davis 50-1 (BetMGM)
This is a big number for someone who can rack up birdies in a hurry. He ranks in the top 10 in opportunities gained, birdie or better gained, and eagles gained. The boom-or-bust nature of his game is perfect for tournaments like this.
He is not going to be much of a threat at more difficult courses that require every aspect of your game to be on point. Davis is going to dominate the field with long drives, which should bode well for the par-5’s.
Davis gained 7.4 shots on the field in the ball-striking category, but lost right around three shots with the flat stick. In 2021, he finished 3rd in this event, where he gained more than five shots putting. If he can combine elite ball striking and find the flat stick as he did here in 2021, Davis is an absolute bargain at this price.
Official Betting Card
- Tom Hoge 40-1 BetMGM (.5 units)
- Taylor Montgomery 45-1 BetMGM (.5 units)
- Cameron Davis 50-1 BetMGM (.5 units)
- Total units in pla : 1.5u
- Season total results: -4.9u