Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks, Props & Outrights: Wyndham Championship
ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for the 2022 Wyndham Championship!
Welcome to my new weekly PGA column! I will be focusing primarily on tournament (or H2H) matchups, but if I think the odds are right, I will throw in an occasional outright wager.
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Congratulations to all of the Tony Finau backers last week. Winning on the PGA Tour is a very challenging endeavor and he has now won in back-to-back weeks. Truly impressive to watch and I am glad to see he is finally putting the doubters in their place. We were able to salvage a break-even week by cashing our Callum Tarren top-20 and our matchup pick with Luke List over Joel Dahmen.
This week, the Tour heads to Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. The course is a par-70 and plays 7,131 yards.
There are five water hazards and 52 sand bunkers. The greens are Bermuda grass and the average green size is 6,000 square feet. This is very much a course for plotters. Distance isn’t necessarily a massive advantage at this course.
The last three winners are Kevin Kisner, Jim Herman, and J.T. Poston. None of those players are long hitters by any stretch of the imagination. They get by through accuracy off the tee, solid approach play, and being positive with the putter. There are only two par 5’s on this course, so we don’t need to weigh par-5 scoring much at all. Judging by previous years, the cut should be around -2. Prepare yourself for another birdie fest. Depending how penal they want to make the rough, we should see the winning score between 15-20 under par.
This is the last event of the PGA regular season. There will be several players trying to secure their status for next season and will need a big week to do so. It is worth noting this when considering some top-20 or top-40 wagers this week. This is a big pressure event for some of the players that are hovering around that top-125 mark in the FedEx Cup Standings. Now, let’s get to the betting picks!
Free PGA Betting Picks – 2022 Wyndham Championship
- Current Odds: 20-1 on BetMGM
This will undoubtedly be the chalk pick of the week. Webb Simpson absolutely dominates at this course and he has littered the top-10 at this event for the last decade.
Simpson’s current form is not stellar, but we have seen flashes of his old self. The best part of his game is accuracy off the tee. Webb has never been a bomber, even in his prime, however, he’s a world-class plotter.
Simpson is able to keep the ball in play, while also being good enough with his short irons and putter to make the necessary number of birdies at these easier tracks. His best putting surface is also Bermuda. Simpson truly checks all the boxes for this course and I was surprised not to see his odds in the teens.
- Current Odds: 29-1 on FanDuel
It seems as if I missed out on a little value with Henley across the betting markets as he was in the mid-30’s at some books earlier in the day. I still really like this bet. This is a short course that has huge emphasis on accuracy off the tee and short irons on approach.
Henley is one of the best short-iron players on Tour and is definitely the best short-iron player in the field this week. Last week, at the Rocket Mortgage, he flirted with the top of the leaderboard – going bogey free for his first two rounds on his way to a top-10 finish. He was second in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green. His putter is what continues to fail him. Despite his stellar play last week, he lost .54 strokes with the putter. Henley will have so many birdie opportunities this week, that if the putter can even be at neutral, he will find himself at the top of the leaderboard once again.
- Current Odds: 100-1 on Caesars
This is my long-shot pick of the week. Coming off a T24 last week at the Rocket Mortgage, Svensson once again was one of the best players in the field on strokes-gained approach, ranking fifth overall for the event.
Svensson’s tee-to-green metrics were also in the top 20. Much like Henley was on team “no putt” last week, Svensson lost .45 strokes to the field on the greens. One of the only defenses that Sedgefield has are the Donald Ross designed greens. There will be a lot of false fronts and crowned green complexes. I am ok sacrificing a player’s putting skills for superior iron performance. I will be adding Svensson at +300 for a top-20.
Head To Head Matchup Picks – 2022 Wyndham Championship
Sung-jae Im vs. Billy Horschel
- Pick: Im on -120 DraftKings
Sung-jae Im is one of my favorite golfers of the week from a baseline projection. He brings a very secure floor and ceiling combination to any golf course.
Im is coming off a second-place finish at the 3M Open, while we have not seen Horschel since the Open Championship. Horschel does have a ceiling anytime he goes out and does have massive spike weeks from time to time.
The course fits both players, but I am not going to count on Horschel’s short game. He has lost strokes putting in three of his last four events. At a course where you will need to make a ton of birdies, I think that is where Im has a big edge. Im’s of- the-tee game is also world class, where he has gained in that metric in eight-straight events.
Brendon Todd vs. Harris English
- Pick: Todd -130 on DraftKings
This is the perfect course for Brendon Todd. Keep the ball in play and use your short irons on approach. Neither of these players are in great form coming into this week, but I think English is still feeling the effects of his injury.
Whether he is still injured, or is just rusty from missing so many events, I am not sure. However, I am more than willing to lay the heavy juice here with Todd. He has lost strokes on approach in each of his last three events, which is clearly concerning but I think this is an excellent course for him to bounce back. A lot of success at Sedgefield is simply keeping the ball in play and Todd is one of the most accurate players on tour.
Tides’ Official Betting Card
- Webb Simpson 20-1 (BetMGM)
- Russell Henley 29-1 (FanDuel)
- Adam Svensson 100-1 (Caesars)
- Adam Svenson top-20 +300 (DraftKings)
- Im over Horschel -120 (DraftKings)
- Todd over English -130 (DraftKings)