Giants vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks, Predictions for Thursday (July 22)

Giants vs. Dodgers odds

Giants vs. Dodgers Odds

Giants Odds+145
Dodgers Odds-175
PitchersA. DeSclafani vs. W. Buehler
Time10:10 p.m. ET

It’s a tight race in the NL West as the Dodgers host the Giants for the fourth day in a row. San Francisco took two of the first three, but can the Dodgers get a much-needed victory with the series coming to a close? MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida makes his Giants vs. Dodgers picks for Thursday, July 22, 2021.

After a commanding 7-2 victory on Monday evening, the San Francisco Giants blew a ninth inning lead on Tuesday in an 8-6 loss, before pulling off their own ninth inning heroics in a 4-2 win yesterday. Tonight, the Giants will send Anthony DeSclafani to the hill as they look to secure an important series win against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He will be opposed by Walker Buehler.

DeSclafani owns a 2.78 ERA, 3.63 xERA, and a 3.64 FIP through 19 turns in the rotation in 2021. He has benefitted from a .234 BABIP against him and is likely to experience some negative regression during the second-half of the campaign, but much of his underlying metrics indicate that he is still likely to be quite effective going forward. He ranks in the 76th percentile in walk-percentage, the 56th percentile in xBA against him, and his spin rates have been largely unchanged since the league-wide crackdown on sticky substances. Still, bettors should proceed with caution when backing DeSclafani in tough matchups, considering that he has a below-average whiff-percentage, chase-rate, and strikeout-percentage. 

During the month of July, the Dodgers rank second in OPS, ISO, and barrel-percentage, and swing at the sixth-fewest pitches outside of the strike-zone of any team in the league. On the year, Los Angeles owns a second-ranked OPS and a sixth-ranked ISO with a league-best 11.0 percent walk-rate and a miniscule 22.5 strikeout-percentage against right-handed pitching. The status of Mookie Betts remains uncertain ahead of tonight’s contest, but even if Betts is once again out of the lineup, the Dodgers should be able to make life extremely difficult for DeSclafani in this one.

Giants vs. Dodgers Picks

Across 121.1 innings of work this season, Buehler has posted a 2.37 ERA, 3.18 xERA, and a 3.34 FIP. He sits in the 97th percentile in fastball spin rate and the 94th percentile in curveball spin rate–but his spin rate on each of his pitches has declined slightly since the middle of June. Still, in his last seven starts, he owns a 2.05 ERA and a 2.64 FIP, so the reduced spin rate has not yet manifested in negative outcomes on the mound. In three starts against the Giants in 2021, Buehler has combined to throw 19.2 innings, allowing only two earned runs on 12 hits. Tonight, he should be strong once again as he hopes to pull the Dodgers within a single game of first place in the National League West division standings.

Expect the Dodgers to get to DeSclafani early in this one and for Buehler to keep the Giants off of the scoreboard for the majority of the evening. The line in this game is predictably heavy on Los Angeles, but the -1.5 spread is significantly more risky in a matchup between two evenly matched teams that have already seen three of their head-to-head games in 2021 decided by a single run, in addition to another game that went into extra innings. Put your faith in Los Angeles on the moneyline tonight.

Pick: Dodgers (-175)

Over/Under 7.5 Runs at Dodger Stadium

Over the last three years, Dodger Stadium has graded as exactly league average in terms of offensive production in night games. However, in 2021, the venue ranks eighth out of 30 ballparks in offensive production under the lights–notably, producing 32 percent more home runs than league average. 

At first pitch tonight, the temperature is forecasted to be in the mid-70s with moderate humidity and a slight wind blowing out towards center field. These are near perfect conditions to hit a baseball for two lineups that rank in the top-six in both OPS and ISO against right-handed pitching this year. 

Although the starting pitching matchup features two guys with fantastic numbers this season, over the last 14 days, the Dodgers bullpen ranks 19th in FIP and could be vulnerable in the late innings–as we saw last night in San Francisco’s come-from-behind victory. The Giants bullpen has fared far better lately, but Tyler Rogers has thrown each of the last two days and they have five relief arms that have appeared in two of the last three games. Fatigue could be a legitimate factor in this one, which could lead to some runs on the board in the latter frames.

Bet on two elite offenses finding a way to put some runs on the board in this one. Take the over. 

Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)