Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips: Outrights, Top-10 Picks, and Longshots
Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden is a lead DFS and betting analyst for RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds. In this week’s preview, STL will run over his favorite golf outright bets, top-10 picks, and longshots for the Mexico Open.
Welcome back to the weekly golf betting roundup article! We are back to the normal routine on the PGA Tour with a full field event in Mexico. This is a debut event, so it will be the first time we have seen this event in action.
As for the course, Vidanta Vallarta is the venue. It will be a par 71 that measures over 7,400 yards on the scorecard. However, it’s not your traditional par 71 with three par fives. This course has four par fives and FIVE par threes, which means there are only nine par fours on the course. You can upgrade the importance of long iron play on this course. Let’s find some winning bets!
Top Outright Bets — Mexico Open
Abraham Ancer to win (+2000 on BetRivers) – Jon Rahm is the clear class of this field, but you simply can’t bet on a golfer to win a full field tournament at +300 to +350 odds. We can’t do that with 140+ golfers in action. I’ll pivot down to Ancer as my favorite bet to win when you factor in odds. Ancer has had his struggles around the green of late, but his overall tee to green numbers are still respectable. The Mexico native is surely comfortable playing in his home country this week, and I expect him to go out with the motivation to win in front of the home fans. His ball-striking ability should return to normal on a course where he will feel comfortable, and these are respectable odds in a weak field.
Chris Kirk to win (+3500 on DraftKings) – Given the strength of this field, Kirk is a fine win bet at these odds on DraftKings. He has made five of seven cuts since the middle of February, with three of those going for top 25 finishes. Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks second in this field in strokes gained from tee to green, and he sits third in ball striking. His game works well on courses that cater to iron play, and he is a solid pick with win equity.
Top-10 Finish Bets
Russell Knox Top 10 Finish (+600 on DraftKings) – These are solid odds on DraftKings for a golfer who is best on courses that suit strong iron play. Knox isn’t the longest hitter on Tour, but his approach numbers are very respectable year in and year out. I would play this all the way down to +500, as that is in line with what our projections give him for implied odds for a top 10 finish.
Wyndham Clark Top 10 Finish (+700 on BetMGM) – In terms of risk/reward options, Clark certainly fits that bill. He’s never consistent, but he tends to warm up for red hot rounds at times. The overall statistics for the year aren’t going to make him stand out, but he can pop in these weaker field tournaments. He’s also been playing a lot better of late, with four straight cuts made since the end of March. That includes a solid T10 finish with Cameron Tringale last week. Give Clark a look for some potential upside with a top 10 or top 20 bet. If he makes the cut, he’s going to have a shot at a strong finish. Additionally, if you haven’t signed up already, make sure to use our BetMGM promo code for a free bet up to $1000!
Long Shots and Other Bets
Long Shots – I don’t mind a longshot bet or two given that this is a first time tournament. Throw in a weak field, and we are wise to expect the unexpected. My favorite will be Pat Perez (110-to-1 on Bet365). Perez always plays well on courses with paspalum grass, and he has been playing much better this spring compared to the fall of 2021. Give him a peek. Alex Smalley and Adam Svensson are some other potential long shot options.
Kevin Na over Patrick Reed head-to-head (-120 on BetRivers) – In terms of individual matchups, this is my favorite one on the board. Patrick Reed is very much a broken golfer right now. Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks 103rd in this field in strokes gained tee to green and 123rd in strokes gained off the tee. Meanwhile, Kevin Na ranks third in this field in total strokes gained over that span. Give me Na all day in this matchup.
Good luck this week everyone! Let’s win some money!