MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Monday (August 2)
In the home stretch of the MLB season, the contenders really start to pull away from the pretenders. Clubs have bolstered their lineups and pitching staffs with key trades, and the best teams make the right adjustments against opponents they have already seen once or twice. This all helps us immensely, as bettors doing our due diligence researching MLB odds across the sportsbooks.
Our Bets of the Day hit a rough patch last week, but we are still well over .500 on the season and raring for the sweep today. It’s a shallow slate Monday, but we have games in both the afternoon and evening. Let’s dive right in, make up some ground from a wild last week of July, and make some money on some big-value bets!
As always, all odds are from BetMGM. All stats are from MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
MLB Betting Picks for Monday, Aug. 2
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians
Pitching Matchup: Robbie Ray vs. Eli Morgan (1-3, 7.47 ERA, 33 SO)
MLB Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
The Blue Jays are one of the most exciting young teams in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, and sportsbooks seem to have gotten the memo. Toronto enters Monday’s series-opener with the Indians as whopping -300 favorites, and +100 on the rare -2.5 run line.
With little value represented by those two bets, consider delving deeper on BetMGM and going with the Blue Jays -1.5 (-115) in the first five innings. That way, you can ride the Jays’ hot streak but not have to worry about their shaky bullpen preserving a lead of three late in the game.
Don’t get me wrong, Toronto has been lit as of late. The Blue Jays have won four games in a row, by a collective margin of 28-6. During that four-game span, they have outscored opponents 20-1 in the first five innings.
Toronto’s midseason run has been more than just Vlad, Bo, Teoscar, Semien, and Springer teeing off—its starting rotation has also taken form as of late. Throughout the past 30 days, Blue Jays’ starters have a 3.10 ERA, which trails only the Brewers, Yankees, and Dodgers in that timeframe.
Robbie Ray has been a big part of the Blue Jays’ success. The veteran southpaw has a 9-5 record, with a 3.04 ERA and 1.065 WHIP across 118.1 innings. He has 150 strikeouts and just 30 walks on the season. If not for Toronto’s multiple All-Stars on offense, Ray might have received his second career invitation to the Midsummer Classic.
This game truly tells a tale of two teams. The 54-48 Jays lead the world in home runs (159), they rank third in the MLB in RBI (505), and they sit fifth in the MLB in total runs (528). Meanwhile, the 51-51 Indians rank 15th in homers (130), and rank 21st in RBI (422) and runs (441). Even worse, this contest places 25-year old Tribe rookie Eli Morgan between a rock and a hard place.
Morgan has started just seven games in his MLB career, and he has a 1-3 record, 7.47 ERA, and 1.372 WHIP to show for it. He has yet to register an out past the fifth inning, and he has yet to limit an opponent to under three runs. He has especially struggled with the deep ball, allowing 3.2 home runs per nine innings. Batters are slashing .295/.326/.628 against Morgan.
You are probably a bit less conservative than me, and therefore betting the Jays +100 to win by three. But I’m content with the surer bet, which is Toronto up two after five frames. Simply put, Ray is vastly better than Morgan and the Jays are on a different level than the Tribe.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Pitching Matchup: Ranger Suarez vs. Josiah Gray
MLB Bet: Phillies -130
Speaking of two teams moving in opposite directions… how about the Phillies going for the gold at the trade deadline, while the Nats disposed of seemingly every big name except for Juan Soto? Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski acquired All-Star pitcher Kyle Gibson, stud closer Ian Kennedy, and infielder Freddy Galvis last week, while Washington systematically cleared out future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, MVP candidate Trea Turner, and closer Brad Hand.
One of Washington’s returns in its high-profile deadline deals was Josiah Gray, a 23-year old rookie with one start under his MLB belt. Entering Monday, Gray has a 6.75 ERA and 1.500 WHIP, which could both climb against a potent Phillies lineup.
Philadelphia counters with a new starter of its own. With Kennedy now on board to man the closer’s role, Ranger Suarez can shift to Matt Moore’s recently-vacated position in Philly’s starting rotation. Suarez has gone 5-3 this season, with a sparkling 1.12 ERA and 0.868 WHIP. He shined as the Phillies’ short-term closer over the past month—in 10 July appearances, Suarez notched four saves and one win, while surrendering just two runs in 11.1 innings.
Suarez will be eased into his new role as a starter, but I still love Philly’s chances against the depleted offense of the Nationals. You could make the Phillies’ moneyline -175 and I’d probably still back them. Don’t overthink this one—pick the better team with the more trustworthy pitcher.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Anthony DeSclafani vs. Taylor Widener
MLB Bet: Giants -1.5 (+100)
The Dodgers and Padres keep gunning for the first-place Giants, but San Fran just flat-out refuses to lose. The Bay has been electric, thanks to San Fran’s superb power hitting (158 homers rank second in the MLB) and consistently solid pitching top to bottom (3.36 team ERA also ranks second).
Now the Giants hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani, who sports a 10-5 record to go with a 3.10 ERA and 1.041 WHIP. The 31-year old has faced the D-backs twice already this season, and he came within an out of his third complete game last time they met. He combines a low walk rate (6.6%) with a high ground ball rate (44%), which usually spells success for starting pitchers.
Also spelling success for starting pitchers: playing against Arizona. The D-backs rank second-to-last in homers with 95, 23rd in RBI with 414, and 22nd in scoring with 438 runs. They just traded infielder Eduardo Escobar, their lone representative at the 2021 All-Star Game. Ketel Marte and Zac Gallen, Arizona’s franchise players, have battled injuries all season. Things are not great for the Desert Snakes.
Will rookie pitcher Taylor Widener provide the major upset for the Diamondbacks? Methinks not. After getting blown up for five runs in two consecutive short outings (against Pittsburgh and Texas, no less), the 26-year old righty from South Carolina finds himself hovering around his career ERA of 4.45. His WHIP stands at a paltry 1.418, and he has surrendered eight homers in 36.2 innings.
An inexperienced pitcher who struggles to avoid the long ball stands no chance against San Fran, especially with this Arizona offense struggling to provide any semblance of consistent run support. The Giants roll on.
Image Credit: Imagn