Free Expert Picks: MLB Player Props, Best Bets For Sunday (PHI vs. STL)

Betting analyst Nick Galaida gives his best MLB player props picks for today — Sunday, July 3, 2022.

On Sunday Night Baseball, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies will conclude a three-game set at Citizens Bank Ball Park. The Phillies emerged victorious in the series opener on Friday evening by a final score of 5-3, but the Cardinals rebounded for a 7-6 win on Saturday. In the rubber match, St. Louis will send veteran Adam Wainwright to the hill, who will be opposed by Zack Wheeler. Oddsmakers anticipate Philadelphia securing a series victory, pricing them as -136 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the starting pitching matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this contest.

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Adam Wainwright Under 4.5 Strikeouts

Adam Wainwright enters play in this one with a 3.07 ERA, 4.21 xERA, and a 3.38 FIP. However, he ranks in only the 35th percentile in strikeout percentage, 3rd percentile in Whiff%, and the 27th percentile in chase rate. Across the last two weeks of action, the Phillies are striking-out in only 18.3 percent of their plate appearances, which is the second-best rate in all of baseball, trailing only the Washington Nationals. In that span, Philadelphia ranks 17th in O-Swing%, 6th in O-Contact%, 4th in Z-Contact%, 5th in Contact%, 5th in SwStr%, and 9th in CSW% – meaning that they are not frequently swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone, nor are they swinging-and-missing at many pitches in general.   

Wainwright has been throwing the ball well of late, with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.54 FIP in his last six trips to the mound. Yet, his season-long numbers are far more favorable when pitching at Busch Stadium compared to the road, which is a continued theme from recent years. In 2022, Wainwright owns a 2.58 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, and a 24.4 strikeout percentage at home, but only a 4.13 FIP, 16.7 strikeout percentage, and a 1.36 WHIP on the road. Facing a high-contact lineup on Sunday, the veteran right-hander could be looking at one of his lowest strikeout totals of the season. Take Wainwright’s under at FanDuel Sportsbook with plus-money odds.

Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Undeniably, Zack Wheeler is on the short list of current favorites to win the National League Cy Young award. Through 14 turns in the rotation, he owns a 2.89 ERA, 2.90 xERA, and a 2.53 FIP. Wheeler ranks in the 70th percentile in HardHit%, 83rd percentile in xwOBA, 82nd percentile in strikeout percentage, 80th percentile in walk percentage, and features a deep arsenal with plus-velocity and plus-spin rates. In his last 11 trips to the mound, he has posted a 1.84 ERA, 2.24 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 31.0 strikeout percentage, and a 5.6 percent walk-rate.

On Sunday, he will battle a St. Louis lineup that ranks only 14th in OPS, 9th in ISO, 25th in walk percentage, and 30th in strikeout percentage across the last two weeks of action. In that span, the Cardinals rank 22nd in O-Swing%, 27th in O-Contact%, 9th in Z-Contact%, 24th in Contact%, 19th in SwStr%, and 27th in CSW%. Considering that Wheeler has punched-out at least seven batters in 10 of his last 11 outings, this is a great spot for bettors to back the talented Philadelphia ace on his strikeout prop, given the current number and market price. Take the over in this spot (on FanDuel for the best current odds) against a St. Louis offense that is swinging-and-missing far more often than they were at the beginning of the year.