Sign In Get the App $ $

Three For Thursday – STLCards’ MLB Props Picks & Predictions (7/14/22)

Justin Van Zuiden Thu 7/14 7:34am PT
Our betting analysts are backing Byron Buxton over his total bases prop on Thursday
Image Credit: Imagn

Greetings, SAO readers! Each Thursday, I am going to bring you three of my favorite bets for the day in a quick, easy to read article that we’ll call “Three For Thursday.” 

We are going to shift this article to have more of a prop-based focus going forward. We have a fun day of games on tap, so let’s see what MLB player props we can try to make some money on today!

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Thursday

Carlos Carrasco Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Pounce on this before it goes to 5 ½ everywhere. Carrasco isn’t the highest strikeout pitcher in baseball, but this is a criminally low line for a matchup against the Cubs with favorable pitching weather in Chicago. Our projections have Carrasco at 6.3 strikeouts today, which is almost two full K’s above this number. The Cubs have the eighth highest team strikeout rate in baseball over the last 30 days, as well. Give me the over with confidence.

Martin Perez Over 5.5 Hits Allowed

Perez has fantastic surface numbers this year, but he’s still a low strikeout pitcher that is completely reliant upon BABIP luck. That luck has gone his way all season but has finally started to normalize in recent starts. Perez has now given up at least six hits in seven consecutive starts. Our projections have this number at 7.8 hits allowed today, as he faces a red-hot Mariners team that has won ten in a row. I expect Perez to have a difficult day, so I’ll gladly take the over on this modest hits allowed figure.

Byron Buxton To Hit A Home Run

We have this at projected true odds of +160, so take the mammoth value. Johnny Cueto is not going to blow the ball by Buxton, so we’re likely to get batted balls in play here. Buxton has shown great power this year with a huge .323 ISO mark, and he is my favorite home run bet of the evening.