NBA Finals Bets: Expert Picks, Odds for Game 6 Between Suns & Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks enter Game 6 with an NBA championship at the tip of their fingers, while the Phoenix Suns look to survive and deliver a historic Game 7 to fans waiting anxiously in the desert. Oddsmakers certainly wouldn’t mind if they took this one the distance — but hey, maybe we’re getting ahead of ourselves.
First thing’s first. Let’s make money Tuesday night.
We’ve rounded up a few staff members and asked them for their best NBA Finals bets. Here are their Suns vs. Bucks Game 6 picks.
NBA Finals Game 6 Odds and Picks
Suns +170 Moneyline
Stephen Keech: The Suns have now dropped three straight after opening the series with a 2-0 advantage. They’re on the brink of elimination and will try to survive Game 6 in Milwaukee before potentially returning home for a pivotal Game 7. After being a four point underdog on the road, the Bucks are sitting as five point favorites and are around -200 on the moneyline. I’ll play the Suns at +170 or better – I think they are more likely to win this game than the odds suggest. The implied odds have the Suns with a 37% chance to get to a Game 7. If you’re looking for a bigger payout, you could play the Suns to win the series if the price is right and essentially parlay Games 6 and 7.
Suns First Quarter Spread: +1.5 (-105)
I’m also on Suns 1Q at +1.5 (-105). They’ve won the first quarter in four of the five games to this point, and given that they tend to ride Booker/Ayton through most or all of the quarter with an ample dose of Chris Paul, I like the spot for the Suns early. They’ve seemingly had more success early against Brook Lopez lineups and the Bucks generally do not ride any of the big three for the full 12 minutes. I’m confident playing the spread or first quarter moneyline at +134 on FanDuel.
Stephen manages NBA Player News, Projections, and Starting Lineups at RotoGrinders. To see projections for all Game 6 player props, become a ScoresAndOdds Premium Member today!
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 0.5 Made Threes (-111)
Charlie Wright: Giannis hasn’t made a 3-pointer since Game 2. He’s only taken five of them the past three games. The Bucks won all three of those games. Probably not a coincidence.
We’re looking at maybe two attempts in Game 6. Giannis is shooting 17.9% from beyond the arc in the postseason. Yeah, give me the under on him making one.
Charlie is an experienced writer and editor with a background in print journalism. He currently leads social media operations for the USBets network, RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds.
Suns First Quarter Moneyline (+125)
Ryan Gutzler: With the Suns trying to stave off elimination in what has been an incredible playoff run, it’ll be key for them to come out firing right off the bat and it will be the Bucks top focus to limit the damage. In this series alone, the Suns have outscored the Bucks by 23 points in the first quarter over the first 5 games and only failed to win the opening set once when they were down 29-26 in game 2.
Ryan is a content strategist at Better CollectiveTennessee. Gutzler is a former two-sport collegiate athlete who now relives the glory days through men’s leagues, coaching and of course, writing about sports. He is also a poker player, sports bettor and avid Sixers, Phillies, Flyers and Duke homer.
Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists (-135)
Dan Gaspar: I pointed out Chris Paul’s strong potential assist numbers after Game 2 and despite overall poor play over the last two games, Paul continues to get plenty of opportunities, averaging 16.5 potential assists per game during that stretch. Paul saw his minutes dip a little bit in Game 5 but I would expect him to see his playing time jump back into the upper 30’s minutes in an elimination game such as we have tonight.
Dan is an industry OG who has found success across multiple sports. In DFS, he has qualified for countless live finals and takes pride in being able to adapt to the ever-changing landscape of fantasy sports and sports betting. Tuttle is a jack of all trades, and you can frequently find him breaking down the NFL, MLB, and NBA betting scenes.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 2.5 Steals+Blocks
Andy Means: Considering these two specific statistics are wildly variant, this is far more of a gut call than the two other player prop picks I posted for ScoresAndOdds Premium members. Pretty much all projections are likely to have the Greek Freak somewhere in the 2.5 to 3.0 range for his steals and blocks combined, which is why just sportsbooks across the industry have this prop at even money.
But another thing: this is a sneaky fun pick to sweat if you’ve never taken it before. That is especially true when the bet is on Giannis. After all, it feels like he could block any shot, at any moment if he just goes for it without hesitation. And then you have the whole “does the official scorekeeper really know the actual definition of a steal” thing in play, too. I’m telling you, it’s a wild ride.
The way I see it, though, is that with everything on the line Tuesday night, Giannis is more likely to make that extra rotation for a steal, or that second jump for a block attempt after he fails to corral a rebound in a huge scrum. And of course there’s always the chance that he catches someone from behind in transition who doesn’t hear screams of “WOLF!”
For what it’s worth, Giannis has beaten this number three times in the NBA finals so far, though he looks to bounce back from a zero-burger in Game 5. However, I think that last game could actually work in his (and our) favor for this prop. The Bucks defense fell big time in Game 5 (129.3 Defensive Rating), although a lot of that was the result of tremendous shot-making on behalf of Phoenix. Considering how good Milwaukee’s offense was in that one too, you’d have to think that the Bucks will have focused on the defensive adjustments since Saturday. Hopefully a byproduct of that is more stocks (steals plus blocks) for our man.
I will reiterate that this pick, for me, is way more for fun, so don’t make it a 5-unit play or whatever. Sign up at BetMGM, claim your bonus, and throw a few bucks on it.
Andy was a walk-on with the esteemed Duke University basketball team for three years before graduating in 2004. He has a Masters in Accounting from the Indiana University Kelley School of Business and has been playing DFS since 2014 – professionally since 2016. He is a featured contributor at RotoGrinders, and displays his extensive basketball knowledge providing exclusive picks and analyses for ScoresAndOdds Premium subscribers.