Eys Breakers (4/6/22): NBA Props Preview & Best Bets Today

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NBA betting expert Keith Eyster dives into his best prop bets to target Wednesday, April 6th in his new series “Eys Breakers.” Use our Caesars welcome offer to get $1100 first-bet insurance today!

The NBA season continues to wind down as we have reached the final week of the season. 

We need to watch out for tanking teams completely changing rotations. The Oklahoma City Thunder’s shenanigans last night are a prime example of this. 

Yesterday’s Tanking

I had prop bets on Aleksej Pokusevski and Theo Maledon. I figured I was drawing dead when the Thunder announced an entirely different starting lineup than expected. Luckily, Poku and Maledon did not play at all despite being active, and the bets were refunded. 

Detroit pulled similar shenanigans over the weekend where Cade Cunningham started but did not return after playing only 6 minutes. 

Both of these teams are on the slate tonight and I will be avoiding those situations. 

New York Knicks

The Knicks are the first team I want to dig into today. New York has been eliminated from the playoffs, but host the Brooklyn Nets, who are trying to improve their playoff seeding. 

Julius Randle will likely miss the remainder of the season with a quad injury. Derrick Rose, Kemba Walker, Nerlens Noel and Cam Reddish are out as well. 

Quentin Grimes and Miles McBride are listed as questionable to play, but both did suit up the last game. 

RJ Barrett has seen a 4.9% usage bump to 33.1% with Randle, Rose, Walker and Reddish off the floor this season. 

Barrett has scored over 24.5 points in three of his last four games and in five of his last eight games. He has averaged 23.97 points per-36 minutes with this group of available players and he frequently plays over 36 minutes per game. 

The elite usage and good matchup against Brooklyn push this one over the top for me. 

Obi Toppin has stepped into the starting lineup for Randle and has performed well in the last two games. He played 31 minutes against Cleveland, scoring 20 points and adding 4 rebounds and 4 assists. He played 36 minutes against Orlando, scoring 20 points again to go along with 8 rebounds and 3 assists.  

Toppin produced 28 PRA against Cleveland and 31 PRA against Orlando. He should grab the start again with Randle out and see at least 30 minutes of action. I like him to go over his Points, Rebounds, Assist line against Brooklyn. 

Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards

The Atlanta Hawks are tied with Brooklyn for the 8th seed and should be playing to win today. 

They continue to play without John Collins who has missed nearly a month. Danilo Gallinari is listed as questionable to play as well after sitting out last game. 

The Hawks host the Washington Wizards, who rank 24th in defensive rating. 

Kevin Huerter has stepped up his scoring in the absence of Collins. He has scored at least 20 points in four of his last five games. 

This line feels too low with Huerter’s recent production and the good matchup against Washington. 

I would like to know Gallinari’s status before taking any other Hawks’ props, but I do have interest in De’Andre Hunter today if Gallinari is ruled out. 

On the Washington side of the game, Kyle Kuzma has been ruled out again. 

Kristaps Porzingis has had an elite 32.9% usage rate in Washington with Kuzma off the floor. He has also not been limited on back-to-backs in Washington like he was in Dallas. 

Porzingis played 29 minutes against Orlando on 3/30 after logging 29 minutes against Chicago the night before, so I think we can expect upper-20s minutes again for Porzingis tonight. 

Porzingis has averaged 23.3 points per game over the ten games Kuzma has missed. He has scored at least 22 points in seven of those ten games. 

Atlanta has struggled on the defensive end of the floor this season ranking just 26th in defensive rating. I like Porzingis to go over 21.5 points tonight. 

NBA Player Prop Picks For Today –– Betting Card

That will wrap up today’s breakdown of NBA player props. We only have six games tonight with two teams clearly in full-on tank mode. Despite the short slate, we were able to identify a few props to target: 

This will likely be the final NBA-focused article of the season as MLB Opening Day is tomorrow. I hope you enjoyed following my process for NBA player props and were able to turn a nice profit!

Be sure to continue reading as we switch gears heading into the MLB season. It should be a great season with lots of value to be found. 

Good luck with your bets today!