Week 6 Staff Best Bets: Thursday Night Football – Bears vs. Commanders

Our NFL experts are backing many different picks and props for Thursday's Bears vs. Commanders game!
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Many of our ScoresAndOdds NFL experts will bring you free betting picks each week for the prime-time Thursday Night Football game!

If you thought last week’s Thursday Night Football game was exciting (sarcasm), wait until you see the Vegas totals on tonight’s game between Chicago and Washington!

Oddsmakers currently have this game between a 37.5 and 38 pont total across various sportsbooks. Not exactly a projected shootout!

But somebody has to win! Let’s take a look at what some of our SAO experts are backing this evening!

Thursday Night Football – Week 4: Bears vs. Commanders Free Betting Picks

Washington Commanders Moneyline

Carson Wentz is actually a higher-graded quarterback than Justin Fields. Watching Fields play, it shows. Washington has passed the ball 66%+ of the time this season. Getting Brian Robinson back, with another week under his belt, may bring that number down to a more respectable range. Meanwhile, Justin Fields is a decent QB with a clean pocket. He has been terrible, sporting a 23.8 passer rating, when he gets pressure. I’ll take my chances with some talented defensive linemen to create some pressure on Fields.

David Montgomery Over 60.5 Rushing Yards

The Bears know that they can’t rely on throwing the football to win games. This game should be competitive throughout, and presuming Montgomery is healthy, we’re getting good value on this number. There’s some risk of a semi-limited workload, but if the game is close, I can’t see the Bears keeping him on the sidelines. Our projections have him at 69 rushing yards this evening, making this is a solid +EV selection.

Washington Commanders -6.5 (+196, FanDuel)

I don’t trust either of these football teams, but I have a lean to Washington and want to chase some longer odds on FanDuel. The 6.5-point spread pays nearly 2-to-1. We know the Bears want to run the ball, but the way to beat the Commanders thus far has been through the air. On the season, Washington is sixth in rush defense DVOA and ninth in defensive adjusted line yards. My hope with Washington is that they’ll have more success on the ground with Brian Robinson seeing more reps. The fewer throws for Carson Wentz, the better.

Curtis Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (-121, Caesars)

Samuel is leading the Commanders with a 22% target share through 5 games, ahead of Terry McLaurin’s 16.1% share. Samuel has earned at least 7 targets in every game this season, and he has over 4.5 receptions in all but one with an average of 6.4 receptions per game. Tonight, he gets a matchup against a Bears defense that ranks just middle-of-the-road, and Washington will be playing without Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas. This may be an ugly game this evening where offense is hard to come by, but Samuel has been the Commanders most consistent offensive threat and has less competition for targets than any other week so far this season. I’ll take the over on 4.5 receptions.

Brian Robinson Over 45.5 Rushing Yards

I’m taking this generous line on FanDuel. I feel like projections across the industry will be split on Robinson tonight. For whatever reason, Ron Rivera and company have wanted nothing to do with Antonio Gibson since the middle of the summer. Robinson logged his first action last week and played 27% of the snaps. Despite a very ugly total, this should be a neutral-ish game script for both teams on Thursday night. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Robinson get 13-15 carries. The Commanders run the eighth-most zone runs in the league, while Chicago ranks dead last in defending against those schemed runs, while also giving up the most runs of 10+ yards in the NFL. Carty’s The Blitz system likes him to go well over this number too. It’s always nice when we agree!