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Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Live Betting: RBC Canadian Open

Timothy Buell Sun 6/12 8:21am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks live betting this week’s PGA event. Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.  

RBC Canadian Open Betting Picks: Round 4

Today’s article will feature a couple of live bets following Round 3 of the RBC Canadian Open. 

As expected, this course has been a true test of requiring smart calculated decisions off the tee and being able to account for the drastic elevation changes on just about every hole. There were some low scores on Saturday, with Tony Finau firing an impressive 62, and Justin Thomas recording a 63. 

The leaderboard is very top-heavy and that will affect my perimeters in deciding a live bet for tomorrow’s Round 4 action. 

Due to the amount of talent on top of the leaderboard, and the fact that this course can play on the more difficult side (despite some of the low scores today), I don’t want to reach too far when making a pick. I feel like five shots back of the leader should be the maximum. The other factor is the weather that could have an impact for tomorrow’s round. There is a chance of rain showers early in the day and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon. That is a tough wrinkle to handicap, but it is an important factor to consider when making a wager.  

Whenever I make a live bet in golf, I first want to check who is far outperforming their peripherals and whether I feel like that is sustainable.

For example, let’s take a look at Tony Finau’s round today. Finau gained strokes against the field in every metric, but it was his putting that was a true outlier. He gained over 3 strokes putting, which is a huge number and absolutely not sustainable. 

With his odds currently at +260, I am out on him as a live bet for Sunday. Finau has historically had trouble finishing tournaments, despite his immense talent and with holes 16-18 as very difficult holes I don’t see him winning this tournament.  

Rory Mcllory is the betting favorite at +165, he has been playing some solid golf throughout this tournament,  and is also the defending champion. This is where live betting gets tricky in my opinion. Rory has a very good chance to win this tournament and is the class of the field, but there is simply no value at this price.  If you want to take the conservative route then you can take Rory but I really don’t think it makes sense in terms of expected value.    

My first pick is going to be Sam Burns. Burns currently sits at +650 and is two shots behind Finau and Rory.  Burns already has three wins this year and has a true knack for winning golf tournaments. 

Burns is a tremendous driver of the golf ball but has gained barely off the tee this tournament (.02). His putter has also been rather tempered, gaining only 1.21 strokes over the first three rounds of the tournament. This is just a long way of saying Burns has not been spiking in any metric and if he does he will be gaining on the leaders in a hurry. There is going to be a lot of attention on the final group of Finau and McIlroy in the betting market and I am hoping that keeps people off of Burns which could increase his number a little bit. 

My next pick is not for the conservative sports bettor.  If you aren’t an avid golf viewer, then you may not have heard of Alex Smalley. He might not be an everyday name now, but I think in the next couple of years he will be. In twenty two starts this season he has five top-25 finishes and two top-10 finishes.  He finished T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship.

While that is a second-tier event he has shown a ceiling on the PGA Tour, he currently sits two strokes back of the leaders and his odds to win are +1600.  He has lost .89 strokes putting over the first three rounds and is still only two shots back. He is leading the field in strokes gained tee to green which on this course is gigantic to be able to excel at that metric.  If he can somehow get the putter going, look for him to be in contention going the stretch.  If you can get him anywhere over +1500 I would jump on it.  

PGA Outright Picks for Round 4 (Multiple Sportsbooks):