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Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks: RBC Canadian Open

Timothy Buell Tue 6/7 12:10pm PT
Image Credit: Imagn

ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for every PGA event. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting on golf now!

Welcome to my new weekly PGA column! I will be focusing primarily on tournament (or H2H) matchups, but if I think the odds are right, I will throw in an occasional outright wager.

Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.  

This week’s event on the PGA Tour is the RBC Canadian Open, which is making its comeback to the Tour after being on a two-year hiatus due to the pandemic. 

This event is the third-oldest event on the Tour, dating back 118 years. In fact, Arnold Palmer had his first career win here in 1955. Rory McIlory is the defending champion (2019) of this event after he dominated the field with a seven-shot victory. This year, we have five out of the top-10 golfers (and 12 of the top-25 golfers) in the world teeing off.

However, the field drops off considerably, which reflects significantly in PGA outright markets. Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas are co-favorites at +700, and in my humble opinion, shouldn’t bet bet on at these prices – in terms of outright winners. 

St George’s is one of the most highly-regarded courses in all of Canada, which is considered short by PGA standards at only 7,000 yards. The last time St George’s G &CC held this event was in 2010, when Carl Pettersson was the winner.

This course is unusual, in the sense that it has five par 3’s and three par 5’s. Four of the par 3’s measure over 200 yards and three of the par 5’s are reachable, at least for professionals! 

Looking back at some of the players who had success at this course in 2010, it’s clear that shorter hitters can absolutely compete. However, it seems to me that approach play is of the utmost importance with the course’s smaller-than-average greens. The course went through a full redesign in 2014, changed the layout for all the greens, while also converting them to be completely bentgrass. 

My picks for this tournament will focus on players that excel at hitting fairways off the tee and good approach. I will not be looking so much at past results for this tourney, since it hasn’t been played here since 2010. Let’s see if we can get an edge at some H2H matchups, or perhaps an outright winner at a good price.  Let’s get started with the betting picks!

Free PGA Tournament Matchup Picks For This Week

Sebastian Munoz vs. Chris Kirk

In the last 50 rounds, Chris Kirk has been better than Munoz (in what I consider) three very important statistical categories: strokes gained off the tee, fairways gained, and stroke gained approach. 

Kirk is also far and away the better player at strokes gained around the green. Kirk ranks 2nd in the field in that category, while Munoz ranks 45th. I will say that both of these players can struggle with the putter, which could really sink either one of them. But for the purpose of this wager, I believe that Kirk should be the favorite for this tournament matchup. Getting him at even money is a value. 

Rory Mcllroy vs. Cameron Smith

Rory is my favorite golfer of the whole week due to his unparalleled skills off the tee with the ability to be accurate and long. He should be able to feast off this short course without being penalized by the long rough. Don’t get me wrong Cameron Smith is a tremendous golfer and will continue to have success throughout his career.

However, I don’t love this course for his skill set due to his tendency to get wild off the tee from time to time. Smith might have to lean on his putter a little too much to bail himself out of some big numbers. Odds of -130 is a lot to lay for an individual matchup, but I don’t feel comfortable betting Rory at +800 to win the tournament outright. I do want to get exposure to him to some extent and I think this is an appropriate way of doing that. 

Outright Pick To Win The RBC Canadian Open

I am going to make one outright pick today. For those of you who are unfamiliar with outright betting on the PGA Tour, winners are very difficult to win and should be bet on responsibly. 

Let’s say that you’re comfortable betting $50 on a standard spread, point total or common wager. Outrights are a different animal. I’d invest about $5 (or a tenth of a unit) on a PGA golfer to win a tournament.

Brendon Todd at +8000 is my long-shot pick for the week. Todd has excelled at Par-70 courses and is tremendously accurate off the tee. He is coming off a third-place finish at The Colonial. 

Additionally, Todd has tremendous touch on the greens. The shorter layout of this course should fit his strengths and I think this number is far too high. I would have thought he’d get a little more credit and be in the 40 or 50-1 range. Getting him at 80 to 1 is a steal. Todd also ranks 22nd in par-3 scoring and 5th in par-3 efficiency from 200-225 yards. Four of the course’s par-3’s fit that threshold, which should be another advantage for Todd.