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RBC Heritage PGA Betting – Win, Top 20, Longshot Golf Best Bets

Justin Van Zuiden Wed 4/13 11:25am PT
Image Credit: Imagn

Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden is a lead DFS and betting analyst for RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds. In this week’s preview, STL will run over his favorite betting picks for The RBC Heritage tournament.

Welcome back to the weekly golf betting roundup article! We are coming off a whirlwind Masters tournament, where Scottie Scheffler held off the competition and a big Sunday charge from Rory McIlroy to win what seems like his 15th tournament of the year. All kidding aside, Scheffler has easily been the best player on the PGA Tour so far in the 2022 calendar year, and his victory at Augusta was well deserved.

While this week brings a bit of a hangover factor for golf, I absolutely love the RBC Heritage. The course is different from what we usually see on the PGA Tour these days, as this is a tight, tree-lined course that limits the ability to smash driver off the tee. The greens are also very small, so scrambling becomes more important. Let’s find some winning bets!

STL’s Best Win Market Bets –– RBC Heritage

Dustin Johnson to win (+2200, Bet365) – Despite the natural tendency to avoid players who are coming off a Masters appearance, that narrative might be overblown. Several top-end golfers have solid records at this tournament, and they are obviously teeing it up the week after a major because they enjoy playing the event.

Although this doesn’t feel like a course where we’d want to prioritize Dustin Johnson with a shorter, tighter course that requires a bunch of different shot types and generally de-emphasizes driver usage, DJ clearly likes playing here. He has finished inside the top 30 in each of the last four editions, and he has gained 25 strokes over field average in those trips. It’s only a matter of time before the upside starts to show, and given his improving form of late, this could be that time.

Jason Kokrak to win (+6600, BetMGM) – It hasn’t been the smoothest 2021-2022 season for Kokrak, as inconsistency continues to plague him after a torrid run a year ago.

Still, we know the upside is there when he brings his “A” game, and these are the longest odds we have seen on him in a regular PGA Tour event in quite some time. This is worth a sprinkle on any book where you can get him at greater than 60-to-1 odds.

STL’s Top-10 Market Bets –– RBC Heritage

Webb Simpson Top-10 Finish (+330, DraftKings) – This will be the classic debate on how much you value current form compared to how much you value course history. If you’re banking on current form, it frankly just isn’t there with Webb Simpson right now. That said, he would have had worse odds this week if he would have held his top-15 spot at The Masters. Instead, he slipped to T-35 with a poor Sunday round. I’m still inclined to value his consistency around Harbour Town. He has eight career top-20 finishes here, and that includes a win two years ago. The longer-term stats are still solid, and I’m banking on a comfortable course fit helping Webb channel the success that he found during the first three rounds at Augusta.

Alex Noren Top-10 Finish (+550, FanDuel) – Noren is quietly putting together a rock solid season. He has made the cut in six-straight starts, with three top-12 finishes on his resume. He ranks 5th on the PGA Tour in scrambling this year, and his short game creativity makes this a very good course fit. Throw in three-straight top-30 finishes at this tournament, and we’re getting very solid betting odds here.

STL’s Long Shots and Other Bets ––– RBC Heritage

Long Shots – I have actually made four longshot bets this week. This is a tournament that can often be unpredictable given the nature of the course. I’m rolling small units on these four bets.

It should be obvious that these are not the “safe” bets. However, I think the odds are more than reasonable. For example, Svensson checks in at +12000 to win on FanDuel. DraftKings is giving us great odds here. All four of these golfers have shown upside in the not too distant past, though they are all inconsistent. Still, all we need is ONE of the four to finish inside the top 20 to make this a profitable endeavor, and I think that’s more than reasonable to expect. And if one of them happens to be in contention for a win… well that would just be amazing. 

Good luck this week everyone! Let’s win some money!