Tides’ Takes – PGA Tournament Matchup Picks, Props & Outrights: RSM Classic
ScoresAndOdds analyst Timothy Buell gives free expert advice and betting picks for every PGA event.
For the purpose of this column, I will be focusing mostly on H2H matchups and outright tournament winners!
Make sure to use our tools at ScoresAndOdds to find the best lines at your favorite legal sportsbook.
Congratulations to Tony Finau, who absolutely dominated the field in Houston! A very impressive three titles in three months for Finau. That was about as easy of a sweat that you’ll ever get in terms of cashing an outright ticket and I hope you all tailed. It was only an 18-1 win, but it always feels good to get a win. Let’s see if we keep the streak alive and hit another outright ticket!
RSM Classic: Course Breakdown
Now, the Tour heads to Sea Island Golf Club, which is located in St. Simons Island, Georgia. This is the PGA Tour’s final full-field event for the calendar year.
There has been a PGA Tour event held at this course every year since 2010, however, in 2015, the Tour decided to play this event across two different courses – the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course.
Each golfer plays one round at each course, while rounds three and four are played at Seaside. These courses are very similar, in terms of distance, both playing around 7,000 yards and are Bermuda greens. The key differences are that Seaside is a true links style course and the wind is far more likely to become a factor. The Plantation Course is much more traditionally tree-lined and is statistically easier.
Due to the short nature of both courses, I am really not looking for huge drivers of the ball. I want to find more accurate hitters.
Let’s take a look at the past seven winners since they moved to the Seaside/Plantation split tournament: Taylor Gooch, Robert Streb, Tyler Duncan, Charles Howell lll, Austin Cook, Mackenzie Hughes and Kevin Kisner.
None of those names are big hitters of the ball, but they all share a common theme of being accurate and having the capability to get red hot with the putter.
Normally. I don’t like to play weatherman this early in the week, but it does seem like the wind could become a factor. I’m always hesitant to predict such, because I never know how much merit to actually give that. That being said, I would at least keep an eye out throughout the week for a more accurate forecast of conditions.
Our guy Tony Finau sits at the top of the betting board at 9-1. While it is certainly possible we see a back-to-back win from him, those odds are simply too short for me to wager on. Since 2016, no champion has been shorter than 40-1. This is a course where I want to go farther down the betting board and embrace some volatility. Now, let’s get to the picks!
Free PGA Expert Picks: RSM Classic
Mackenzie Hughes (40-1 on DraftKings)
Hughes is a previous winner at this course (2016) and comes into this event in ver6 nice form. He has four-straight top-25 finishes, including a win at Sanderson Farms.
Even if you throw out the recent form, and the win back in 2016, this course really fits what Hughes excels at, which is being extremely accurate off the tee and one of the best putters on Tour. Also, worth noting, he has the skills to do well if conditions do get more difficult. Hughes doesn’t necessarily need this to become a birdie fest to win. Adding a top-20 wager at +250 on DraftKings.
Alex Smalley (60-1 on DraftKings)
I have bet on Alex Smalley more than once in his short career, and no matter what the result is this week is, it won’t be my last time. His tee-to-green game is truly world-class. Smalley has three top-25 finishes across his last four starts and finally had the putter going last week. He was rewarded with a T4 for his effort.
Last season, he had seven top-20 finishes. I have a very strong inclination that he breaks through on Tour sooner rather than later. I am going to add a top-20 finish bet on him at +275 on DraftKings.
Luke List (130-1 on DraftKings)
It seems a little bit crazy to me that one of the best approach players in the world is 130-1. I understand that his putting game is absolutely atrocious, but he does have weeks where he can at least putt to neutral against the field. List’s off-the-tee game is stout, and like I said, the irons are world-class.
He won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines when he beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff. I don’t need to tell you that List probably won’t win, but I think he is worth a small bet at this inflated number.
Official PGA Betting Card
- Risk: .5u Mackenzie Hughes 40-1 on DraftKings
- Risk .5u: Alex Smalley 60-1 on DraftKings
- Risk: .25u Luke List 130-1 on DraftKings
- Risk: .5u Alex Smalley top-20, +275 on DraftKings
- Risk: .5u Mackenzie Hughes top-20, +250 on DraftKings
- Total units wagered: 2.25u
- Season Total: -2.8u