Suns vs. Bucks Game 4 Prop Bets: Picks for Holiday, Crowder (July 14)
The 2021 NBA Finals are in full gear, and the Milwaukee Bucks have stormed back at home to make it an actual series. With a win Wednesday evening, the Bucks will even the series at 2-2, and head back to Phoenix to begin a best-of-three with momentum.
If you have followed the advice of our betting previews and player/team props guides, you have probably been raking in the money. But there’s still many more bets to make before the Larry O’Brien trophies get hoisted, and for that matter, much more money to make. So, let’s dive into our three favorite props for Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Finals!
Suns vs. Bucks Game 4 NBA Player Props
Alternate Total Points, Over 218.5 (-135)
My friends always ask me how sportsbooks always seem to get so close on the over/under totals when they set the odds. The answer is most likely that oddsmakers are just really, really on top of their research and analysis, even more so than your favorite betting analysts (except me, of course). Here’s my piece of advice regarding points totals: if you can buy a point or two, you probably should. I can’t even begin to elaborate how many painful over/under bets I have lost by one stinking point.
Since the first three games of this NBA Finals matchup have totaled 223, 226, and 220 points respectively, everyone and their mom will be betting the OVER on the 220.5 total. Don’t be that bettor! Buy a couple points on the “Bet Slip” screen of your sportsbook, or go to DraftKings and seek out “Alternate Total Points” under the “Game Lines” tab. That DK section provides over/under totals from 208 points (O -350/U +250) through 233 points (O +250/U -350).
Phoenix and Milwaukee both operate fast-paced, run-and-gun offenses, which is part of the reason this Finals matchup has been so entertaining. It’s also a major reason why the points totals have been relatively high, and should remain that way. However, I think the Bucks started to lock down defensively a bit more at home in Game 3, hence why the Suns scored a series-low 100 points Sunday.
Phoenix should improve upon that 100-point total Wednesday. There is no way Devin Booker will repeat his ice-cold shooting performance (3-of-14 from the floor, 1-of-7 from three), and I would be exasperated if no Suns player reached 20 points for the second game in a row. But on the off-chance Deandre Ayton gets into foul trouble again, or Milwaukee once again locks down Phoenix’s guards on the perimeter, you will want that extra couple points of insurance.
The over on 220.5 is risky—the over on 218.5 seems much safer, and well worth the cost of the extra -25.
Jrue Holiday, OVER 19.5 Points (-110)
A big reason why the Bucks roared back into the series in Game 3 was Holiday, the oft-underrated member of Milwaukee’s Big Three. Holiday has been crucial to Mike Budenholzer’s team-oriented system on both sides of the floor, and in particular, his success on offense has translated into victories.
In Milwaukee’s last three playoff wins, Holiday has averaged 24.3 points. And in the Bucks past five games in Deer District (yes, that’s what Bucks fans call their home base), he has averaged 24.4 points. The 12-year vet and former All-Star has been a fantastic fit in Bud’s offense, and he clearly loves playing in front of the Wisconsin faithful.
Holiday will need to continue playing aggressively if the Bucks have any shot at winning it all. He has attempted at least 14 shots in six straight postseason games, and in 14 of Milwaukee’s last 15 games. That’s promising, considering he has shot 46.7 percent at home throughout the playoffs, and a whopping 54.8 percent over the Bucks’ last four games at Fiserv Forum. OVER 19.5 feels like a layup here.
Jae Crowder to Make UNDER 2.5 Three-Pointers (+120)
Admittedly, it feels a bit lame to suggest betting the UNDER on a three-pointers prop. But Crowder is as streaky as they come, and after he hit 6-of-7 treys in Game 3, I would be surprised if Budenholzer’s boys allowed the veteran forward as much firing space Wednesday.
Crowder has hit nine total threes in the past two games, and he nailed five from long range in the Suns’ Western Conference Finals-clinching win over the Clippers. However, in Phoenix’s past six games, he has had two 0-phers from long range and one game with just one trey. There have been eight games this postseason in which Crowder failed to make OVER 2.5 threes.
I think Game 4 will mark Crowder’s ninth 2021 Playoff game with under three three-pointers. Do we really expect the Bucks to let him torch them from long-range two games in a row? Budenholzer makes more adjustments than he has been given credit for this postseason. For me, the UNDER at +120 feels worth the relative risk. I apologize in advance if you chew your nails off your fingers every time he rises to shoot. Sports betting can be an emotional roller coaster, but in the end, the ride always feels worth the price of admission.