Suns vs. Bucks Game 6 Prop Bets: Picks for Booker, Ayton (July 20)
As the 2021 NBA Finals quickly approach a crucial Game 6 on Tuesday evening, ScoresAndOdds has all of the advanced analysis you need to make strong betting picks prior to the opening tip. You can check out my Game 6 preview, where I detail my final score predictions, top bets, and over/under pick. But if you want to go against the norm and bet on some key player and team props, you have come to the right place.
The majority of the sports betting public wagers on moneylines, spreads, and points totals. The savviest of bettors make a ton of money going deeper into games, betting on individual players’ and/or whole teams’ statistical performances. Just like finding diamond-in-the-rough investments in the stock market, doing your due diligence with these deeper plays can really pay off in the long run.
So, without further ado, let’s explore our three (plus) favorite player and props in Game 6 of the 2021 NBA Finals.
Suns vs. Bucks Game 6 NBA Player Props
Crowder Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (-125)
Antetokounmpo Under 0.5 Threes (-115)
I love three-point props, and based on my success betting them this Finals, they love me back. I would play these two three-point props and Chris Paul’s Over 1.5 treys prop at -200. All three bets seem like layups in my eyes.
Crowder and Paul are the veteran leaders of the Suns, they are two of the more clutch big-game talents in basketball, and they generally deliver regardless of game situation or venue. CP3 hit seven combined three-pointers in Games 1 and 2, and he nailed three from long range in Game 5. Crowder has drained 14 threes between Game 2 and Game 5 (3.5 per game), erasing from everyone’s memory banks his woeful Game 1 performance (0-of-8 from the field, 0-of-5 from deep).
I like both these guys to exceed expectations in Game 6. CP3 will do whatever he can to extend this series and protect his legacy, including being more aggressive with his own shot creation. Crowder will continue to prosper from beyond the arc, as the Bucks have demonstrated all series that he’s low on their defensive priority list. Milwaukee will gladly allow Crowder the occasional open jumper, if it means Paul, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton are relatively contained.
As for Giannis, does anybody expect the Bucks to suddenly deviate from his usage rate near the basket to this point? The two-time MVP has been eviscerating Phoenix down low, exposing their size disparity and lack of interior depth by staying aggressive and attacking the rim. Giannis has hit just two three-pointers all series—one in each of the two games Milwaukee lost. The Greek Freak has hit just 12 of his 67 attempts from long range all postseason (17.9%), and he has attempted just five treys total across the Bucks’ three-game winning streak (1.6 three-point attempts per game).
The winning formula for the Suns has been the long-range success of Paul, Booker, and Crowder. The winning strategy for the Bucks has been banging Giannis down low, and limiting his attempts from deep. That’s why I’m all over these three-point props, and why I think you should be, too.
Ayton Over 12.5 Rebounds (-105)
The 2018 No. 1 pick has been an absolute revelation this postseason, so much so that I would probably bet the over on Ayton’s rebounding total up to 14 in this pivotal game. He has eight games above 12 boards during the 2021 Playoffs, including 17 total in Phoenix’s Western Conference Finals-clinching Game 6 victory over the Clippers, and another 17 total in Game 4 of the Finals in Milwaukee.
Regardless of venue, the big Bahamian has been brutal on the boards. Ayton averaged over 10 rebounds both at home and on the road this regular season, and has a handful of games with 10-plus boards in the playoffs. He has averaged 16.3 rebounds over Phoenix’s past four road tilts, and 12.7 boards per away game throughout the entire postseason.
That’s about all the evidence I need in this one, as I expect Suns coach Monty Williams to give Ayton crazy minutes in this must-win situation. Good big men come up big in big games—and the stats back this bet in a big way—so just like Phoenix, let’s go big or go home.
Booker & Middleton to Each Score 30+ Points (+360)
Sometimes it’s fun to bet on player prop specials like ‘hybrid’ bets. Essentially, you’re just betting on the long-shot that one (or more) player(s) from each team exceeds a certain stat point. In this case, I’ve specifically selected the hybrid prop that specifies both Devin Booker and Khris Middleton must reach 30 points in Game 6.
At +360, I like this prop a lot. Booker has been stellar all postseason, proving to the entire basketball universe that he deserves to be considered a top-10 scorer in the NBA. He has reached at least 30 points in 10 of Phoenix’s 21 playoff games, and scored 40-plus points in each of the Suns’ last two games. His combined shooting stats in those two games: 34-of-61 (55.7%).
Meanwhile, Khris Middleton might not be the odds-on favorite to win Finals MVP—that award currently seems to be reserved for two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo—but the two-time All-Star forward certainly has proven himself as the clutch x-factor of this Bucks squad. Middleton logged 30 points in Game 1, 40 in Game 4, and 29 in Game 5. He has five games with 30-plus points this postseason, and seems more comfortable at home in Deer District.
If you expect a close game in Game 6 like I do, bet on this pair to reach 30 points, and enjoy the big payout if and when they do.