Bucks vs. Suns Odds, Game 3 Preview, Picks, & Prediction (Sun., July 11)

Sloan Piva Mon 7/12 1:36pm PT

Bucks vs. Suns Odds Game 3

The odds for Game 3 of the NBA Finals are out at online sportsbooks! NBA betting analyst Sloan Piva is here to break things down before the Bucks and Suns tip off Sunday night.

The Milwaukee Bucks accomplished a lot of checklist items against the Phoenix Suns in Game 2 of the 2021 NBA Finals. They established an up-tempo pace from the jump, they got point guard Jrue Holiday to play more aggressively, and they unleashed two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, they still fell short against the Suns 118-108. Milwaukee now heads home as -4 favorites, a spread that must at least raise the eyebrows of Suns fans and some NBA bettors.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are a 4-point underdog!? Child, please. This same Phoenix squad erased a big nine-point deficit early by scorching the Earth from three-point range, finishing the first quarter shooting 8-of-14 from deep. Milwaukee outscored the Suns 29-26 in the first frame, but Phoenix dominated the second quarter 30-16—a 20-point turnaround—and proceeded to put up 30-plus in each of the final two frames.

Whenever the Bucks strike, Phoenix seems to strike back with a flurry of one-two punches. The Suns move the ball around effortlessly. They attack the ball and crash the boards with fervor. They fight through screens. They even follow their misses to get second-chance opportunities and run out fast breaks as a team—qualities that would make all our high school coaches proud.

The Suns boast a well-rounded offense with which Milwaukee has simply been unable to contend. Devin Booker, who started slow (3-of-10), finished 12-of-25 for 31 points, six assists, and five rebounds. The fully-emerged superstar knocked in seven of his 12 three-point attempts, and Phoenix finished 20-of-40 from deep as a team.

Fellow All-Star Chris Paul, the sage veteran floor general of this young squad, was brilliant once again with 23 points, eight assists, and four rebounds. CP3, fellow vet Jae Crowder, and young small forward Mikal Bridges all knocked in three three-pointers. Bridges finished with a playoff career-high 27 points on 8-of-15 shooting, and 8-of-8 from the line. The Suns hit 12 of their 14 free throws.

The pass-first, get someone open mentality of the Suns is fantastic to watch. At one point late in the second quarter, the ABC broadcasting team asked after a possession “how many passes was that—eight?” In actuality, the play featured a dozen passes, with the ball touching every Sun at least once, culminating in a Deandre Ayton and-one. All said, Phoenix won the assist battle 26-21.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks enjoyed a Herculean effort from Antetokounmpo in his second game back from a hyper-extended knee, which surprisingly held him out for just one week. The Greek Freak finished Thursday’s tilt with a game-high 42 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, three blocks, and a steal. He did almost everything for Milwaukee, but he couldn’t lift his squad past the scrappy Suns.

Of course, it would have helped if Antetokounmpo’s teammates could have found the basket. While Giannis finished 15-of-22 from the floor (68.2%), the rest of the Bucks shot just 27-of-71 (38%). Milwaukee shot 9-of-31 from beyond the arc (29%), and 15-of-23 from the foul line (65.2%).

Holiday and Khris Middleton combined to shoot 12-of-37 (32.4%), and 2-of-9 from three-point land (22.2%). Three Milwaukee starters finished with 11 points or fewer—Middleton (11), Brook Lopez (8), and P.J. Tucker (7).

But enough about Game 2. Let’s talk about why Milwaukee doesn’t deserve being the -4 favorite in Game 3.

Suns-Bucks Game 3 Predictions and Picks

The Bucks cannot move the ball as well as Phoenix. They don’t play team defense nearly as well. They don’t shoot nearly as well from any level. And, perhaps most importantly, they don’t seem nearly as motivated.

Never mind the fact that Phoenix coach Monty Williams can coach circles around Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer—the Suns also just appear to have more hustle, drive, and raw emotion than the often-listless Bucks. But if you want to bet a squad like that just because they are at home, you do you!

I’m sticking with the Suns until they give me a reason to deviate. They have thoroughly outplayed and outclassed their opponent almost every step of the way, and they are getting four points? Sign me up. Hold a gun to my head and tell me to pick a winner, and I’m probably going to say Milwaukee. But if oddsmakers are willing to give Phoenix a two-bucket handicap, I’m going solar.

Prediction: Bucks 120-117
Pick: Suns +4