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Suns vs. Clippers Odds, Game 4 Preview, Picks, & Prediction

Matt Schmitto Thu 7/8 9:13am PT
(Imagn)

In this NBA betting preview of Suns vs. Clippers odds for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals, we look at trends for both teams, storylines, player props, predictions, and picks!

Suns vs. Clippers Odds

Suns Odds+1
Clippers Odds-1
Moneyline -110/-110
Over/Under218.5
Tipoff9:05 p.m. ET
TVTNT

The Los Angeles Clippers are on the verge of doing what they’ve done throughout the 2021 NBA Playoffs: lose their first two, then bounce back in Games 3 and 4 to tie the series.

That’s what happened in Round 1 versus Dallas, then in Round 2 against the Jazz. Will the trend continue in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals?

Clippers Dominant in Game 4s

With Kawhi Leonard out of the Clippers, the Suns have been favored in every Western Conference Finals game, until now. Sportsbooks have adjusted Game 4 odds, however, after the Clippers clinched their first conference finals win in franchise history.

Paul George led the Clippers with a game-high 27-points, as Los Angles delivered a 106-92 victory to their home crowd inside the STAPLES Center.

What was the difference Thursday night? After the game, George said he thought that the Clippers matched the Suns’ physicality and scrappiness. The question now is, can they duplicate their performance in Game 4?

Here are some interesting playoff statistics for the Clippers:

Games 1-2Games 3-7
Win/Loss0-69-1
Opp PPG115.5103.4
PPG diff-5.3+12.6
Opp FG pct51%43%

The Clippers have had their fair share of struggles, to be sure, but only two teams in NBA history have had a better record in games 3-7 in a single postseason. You can take the trend or leave it.

With the game practically a pick’em from a betting standpoint, it’ll be interesting to see which team the public sides with at the betting counter.

Advantage Suns, Says This Playoff Trend

Speaking of betting trends, there is a data point that should ease the mind of Suns bettors.

As I discussed in Hawks Finals Odds, it’s become clear that teams who missed the playoffs last year are overperforming now. Last year’s Finals teams, the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat, both exited the playoffs in Round 1, while the Suns and, more specifically, the Hawks continue to upset superior teams. Both teams currently lead their conference finals series against opponents who made it past the first round in 2020.

One explanation is that the shortened offseason and condensed season has taken its toll on teams that played further into the postseason last year more so than those that didn’t.

Suns vs. Clippers Picks & Predictions

What to make of the Clippers’ late-series dominance? I’m not sure I’m buying it. While the sample size is small, I’m more inclined to side with the fact that the Suns and Hawks are undervalued going forward in their respective conference finals.

As such, I’m betting on the Suns +1 against the spread in Game 4. The Clippers got the best of Phoenix last game, but I don’t see it happening again.

The Suns have the reigning NBA Coach of the Year in Monty Williams, who has proven he’s deserving of the award time and time again over the last month. He’ll have his team ready with the help of their floor general and veteran point guard, Chris Paul.

Paul returned from COVID protocol on Thursday, but it wasn’t a smooth series debut. Clearly feeling rusty after being separated from his teammates, Paul shot only 5-of-19 ( 26.3%) and scored 15 points. That was by far Paul’s worst shooting performance this postseason, and there’s no reason to think it happens again. (I also don’t expect Zuba to outperform Ayton.)

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