20220 USFL Championship Odds: Stallions vs. Stars Picks and Predictions
The Philadelphia Stars and Birmingham Stallions are on the brink of making history. The USFL inaugural championship is up for grabs after the two conference winners fought through a 10-week regular season and battled through their first-round playoff matchups. This one is for all of the glory and accolades.
Last week’s playoff matchup brought an exciting set of games. The top-seeded Stallions cruised to a two-score in over the New Orleans Breakers. We expected that to be the less interesting game after Birmingham had shown throughout their first two matchups against New Orleans.
In Philadelphia’s case, they’re continuing to pull upsets and surprise everyone. They seemed destined to lose to a more well-rounded foe in New Jersey considering their offense couldn’t operate at its full potential.
It didn’t matter about the setbacks either team faced. They won and now have the chance of a lifetime. We’re going to break down the final game of the 2022 USFL season and provide a championship game prediction.
USFL Championship Preview: Stars vs. Stallions
Let’s take a look at our championship best bets and predictions for the spread and total. Odds are via Caesars.
Flashback to May 15 for the only time these two teams faced off. It was a dominant second half that had saved the Birmingham Stallions’ undefeated season for another month. The Stars were on the verge of quickly figuring out their issues and going on their own run after their 30-17 loss.
The Stallions began to thrive off quarterback J’Mar Smith’s star talent. He was magnificent as a passer despite being known as more of a run threat. Seeing him carve up the Stars’ defense with a 77.3 percent completion rate and 9.2 yards per pass had us wondering whether the team could actually bench Alex McGough.
They did, and the results thus far have been largely positive. Smith was not great last week but he has improved his consistency. Philadelphia will want to get Smith out of structure but limit his ability to run for big chunk gains.
Philadelphia had no answer for their balance of speed and precision. It didn’t help that Philadelphia’s transition to quarterback Case Cookus had been such a mixed bag early on. He’s still not fully trustworthy but his upside has won several games for the Stars since.
Cookus sometimes lacks quality anticipation and accuracy on his passes. He’s also hurt by Philadelphia’s non-existent running game. Paul Terry broke off a 43-yard touchdown run but the team attempted just 10 other runs the rest of the day in their last matchup, and now Cookus is the only real rushing threat each week.
The lone bright spot for Philadelphia in this first matchup was their defensive star, Josh Banderas. Banderas totaled two sacks and 12 tackles. He’ll need to be a factor again this week, and any interceptions from USFL-leading cornerback Channing Stribling would be a huge help.
Maybe the biggest storyline in this battle is whether Philadelphia’s run defense is here to stay. They’ve improved throughout the year but were still awful when these teams first played. C.J. Marable ran for 114 yards but has not seen the same success as the season has progressed. I’d guess he’ll be largely neutralized in his battle as the Stallions continue to rely on other playmakers.
Basically, these teams are much different than they were in their first matchup. Birmingham is more consistent even if they struggle to score but their defense is excellent. The Stars have a high upside and can win any single game but their offense can go through dreadful droughts.
What we can likely bet on is a close, lower-scoring game that comes down to the wire. This should be an excellent way to cap off what’s been a truly enjoyable and memorable tear.
USFL pick: Stars +4.5 (-110)
USFL pick: Under 44.5 (-110)