USFL Week 9 Odds, Preview, And Best Bets
The 2022 USFL season is approaching their first postseason as the 10-week schedule is winding down. Week 9 is upon us, and the playoffs are coming fast. The layout of the league is unique enough to allow even the misfortune teams back into the race.
Week 8 had several interesting results. The Birmingham Stallions avoided disaster with a narrow win against New Orleans, but the loss crushed the Breakers’ hopes of elevating into the top tier of teams. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Bandits took care of business as they’re lurking in the playoff window.
So much continues to change on a weekly basis that we have to stay flexible with our picks.
Our knowledge of these rosters, coaching staffs, and the league itself has allowed us to prosper thus far. Join us again for our continued USFL coverage. See our Week 9 preview and best bets for each of the four games this weekend!
USFL Week 9 Matchup Analysis
Let’s take a look at our Week 9 best bets and predictions! Odds are via BetMGM.
Tampa Bay Bandits (4-4) vs New Orleans Breakers (5-3)
This is the biggest game of the USFL Week 9 schedule since there will be a direct playoff implication based on the result. Because New Orleans lost to Birmingham last week, there’s still a slight hope for Tampa Bay to slide upward. But they must upset the Breakers this week.
The South Division teams are pretty consistent with their performance. For Tampa Bay to overcome the more talented Breakers, they’ll need to continue forcing turnovers. Last week’s three interception performance by New Orleans QB Kyle Sloter should give Tampa some confidence they can get into the backfield and apply pressure to the young passer.
Tampa’s problem is their lack of consistency as an offensive unit. They have a terrible offensive line and their receiving corps struggles getting open. It’s too bad we couldn’t see Jordan Ta’amu in the Breakers’ talented offense, because Sloter hasn’t maximized his opportunities within a quality group of playmakers.
Alas, we’re left with Tampa’s struggling identity on offense and relatively decent defense. New Orleans is actually better in every major statistical category though, and the difference between Tampa’s 4-4 record and New Orleans’ 5-3 record is not indicative of their overall levels of play.
For example, Ta’amu had just 98 passing yards in their 13-3 win last week. This worked against such a low level of competition last week but is obviously not sustainable. Tampa has gotten more lucky than being good this season. They should not be a 4-4 team compared to Michigan and Pittsburgh.
Barring a turnover-infested performance from New Orleans, they will win this game with ease and bury the possibility of Tampa jumping them in the playoff race.
USFL Pick: Breakers 3 at -110
Pittsburgh Maulers (1-7) vs Philadelphia Stars (5-3)
While Tampa would lose the possibility of making the playoffs over New Orleans with a loss, they could still potentially make it in with a Philadelphia loss. A Tampa win would position them to leap over either or both New Orleans and Philadelphia in Week 10, though.
On to this matchup, the Stars should have absolutely no issues discarding the pitiful Pittsburgh Maulers. Pittsburgh is coming off an 11-point loss to New Jersey but the game was never close. This is a team that has tried everything to milk another quality game from this roster but haven’t been able to establish a balance on either side of the ball.
Quarterback Roland Rivers has on one-hand been productive but incredibly inefficient. He’s had to take on the primary creator role for an offense that has arguably the worst offensive line in the USFL. The game plan is also not conducive for big plays, relying solely on individual routes that these receivers cannot win on.
Rivers has guts and tries hard, but his inaccuracy is a massive issue. The problem is they face the best defense in the USFL at converting turnovers. Philadelphia can easily force several interceptions if they play zone coverages that have multiple defenders in place to catch an errant pass.
Michigan was beat down in the second-half of their matchup with Philadelphia because Paxton Lynch couldn’t be perfect. Michigan is much like Pittsburgh but with a better quarterback. Neither is well-coached or able to get any type of consistency on either side of the ball.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia is red hot. Case Cookus may have fully settled in last week as he totaled 349 yards and five touchdowns as a dual-threat presence. It was the most dominant performance of the season.
This is a lot of points but Pittsburgh should be double-digit underdogs based on their recent level of play. We’ll take the Stars to crush the Maulers.
USFL Pick: Stars -8.5 at -110
Michigan Panthers (1-7) vs New Jersey Generals (7-1)
It’s hard to get too excited about the league’s hottest team in New Jersey and the coldest team in Michigan. The Generals have ripped off seven straight wins and continue to show dominance over their foes. Birmingham may have won their head-to-head Week 1, but that is a long time ago.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have lost five straight and are coming off a beatdown against Philadelphia. The Stars punished the underpowered Panthers’ defense as Case Cookus cooked Jeff Fisher’s team. It’s unlikely Luis Perez would be as aggressive in attacking the Michigan defense as Cookus did last week but the well-oiled offense won’t have issues moving the ball up and down the field based on what they’ve done over the last month.
One big key for the Generals is their well-roundedness. No other offense besides what Philadelphia has shown over the last two weeks can match their ability to create opportunities on the ground and through the air. Perez completed a whopping 75 percent of his passes for 220 yards and one score.
The Generals will run right through the middle of the Michigan run defense. Outside of Cookus’ breakout 79-yard touchdown run last week, the Panthers’ run defense is generally good. But the Generals have found a devastating one-two punch with Darius Victor and Trey Williams.
It’s hard to imagine the Generals winning this game by less than 10 points. They’re on a roll, whereas the Panthers are merely existing at this point. They’re playing for pride but don’t have the talent or coaching level needed to play above their means.
We’ll take the points and put faith into the best team in the league.
USFL Pick: Generals -8.5 (-110)
Houston Gamblers (1-7) vs Birmingham Stallions (8-0)
The other game between a top USFL seed and bottom-feeder is only slightly more interesting from a matchup perspective. The undefeated Stallions take on the struggling Gamblers, and it’s easy to say Birmingham will win. They likely will even as they’ve sputtered in recent weeks, but there’s a spread discrepancy for bettors to jump on.
The Stallions’ defense has become fearsome over their previous few games as they’re as opportunistic as any with sacks and turnovers. But we know turnovers are fickle to predict, so if the Gamblers start taking care of the ball better, it’s likely this is not a blowout. It might be a close game regardless.
Houston limited Jordan Ta’amu to just 98 yards passing last week and will again key in on a wounded J’Mar Smith this week. Smith has gone from budding star to ineffective starter since suffering a leg injury three weeks ago. The Stallions should actually consider going with backup Alex McGough to stabilize their offense.
McGough entered the game last week for just one play and he ran 22 yards. Smith is still a terrific run threat as well, totaling 45 yards on seven carries. But whichever can throw it more effectively matters more. This would be a good time to see who is more suited to lead this team in the playoffs.
The point spread in this game is shocking. Yes, the Gamblers were just eviscerated by 22 points by the Stars. But Philadelphia had found a special magic that is unlikely to be repeated. The Stallions maybe could have covered this a month ago before Smith was banged up, but his current form has left this offense at-risk of an upset more than a two-touchdown cover.
We’ll avoid this point trap and fade what the overall records might suggest. Houston is a “good” 1-7 bad team, and the Stallions are playing much more like a mediocre offense would. The difference here is not 14 points. Take the gift from oddsmakers.
USFL Pick: Gamblers +13.5 (-110)