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2022 Chicago Bears Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Mon 8/29 4:49am PT
Our NFL experts are backing one side of the Chicago Bears team win total for 2022 set by Vegas oddsmakers.
Image Credit: Imagn

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Chicago Bears and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

The Chicago Bears had a year to forget in 2021, finishing with only six wins and a -96 point differential. Following the conclusion of the regular season, Head Coach Matt Nagy was fired, and replaced by Matt Eberflus, who is coming over from the Indianapolis Colts. Eberflus will be tasked with fixing an offense that ranked 29th in EPA/play, and a defense that ranked 22nd in EPA/play last fall.

Entering his second year as a professional starting quarterback, Justin Fields will have a new coaching staff and a retooled roster around him. Let’s dive into the Bears, unit-by-unit, to see what bettors should expect from this group in a few weeks.

Chicago Bears 2022 Team Preview

Quarterback

Depth Chart: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian, Nathan Perterman

By all accounts, Justin Fields had a disappointing rookie campaign. He threw only 7 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, took 36 sacks, completed only 58.9 percent of his passes, and finished the year ranked 31st in QBR. Fields had four games in which he totaled less than 100 yards passing and only four games in which he eclipsed 200 yards through the air.

Looking at the advanced metrics, Fields had a worse than league average passer rating from a clean pocket, under pressure, against the blitz, and on 3rd down. He also struggled tremendously to throw the ball down the field, with a worse than league average passer rating on all depths of target beyond the line of scrimmage.

If there is any reason for optimism for the young signal caller entering the second year of his career, it is that he has a new head coach. Fields is still young and capable of making improvements in many of the aforementioned areas. He simply did nothing in 2021 to inspire confidence that those improvements will be seen in the near future.

Running Backs

Depth Chart: David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, Darrynton Evans, Trestan Ebner

David Montgomery paced the Chicago backfield last fall with 849 rushing yards, but he averaged only a meager 3.8 yards-per-carry, which ranked 41st in the NFL. Khalil Herbert added another 433 rushing yards in 2021, averaging 4.2 yards-per-carry in his rookie campaign. Herbert could be poised for a breakout campaign in 2022 if entrusted with a larger role.

However, running behind one of the most porous offensive lines in football – it could be difficult for any member of this unit to come anywhere near stardom this season. The Bears finished last year ranked 21st in rush yards per play. It would be unwise to expect a dramatic increase in that ranking in 2022.

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Darnell Mooney, Byron Pringle, Velus Jones Jr., Cole Kmet

The departure of Allen Robinson during the offseason certainly commanded the media’s attention, but it is worth noting that Robinson totaled only 410 receiving yards in 2021. Robinson had compiled an impressive 2,397 yards as a pass-catcher in his previous two seasons in the Windy City, but his absence is not likely to be a major factor for this passing attack, considering how infrequently he was used last fall. Most important for this group, Darnell Mooney will return for his third year.

Not quite an elite receiver, Mooney is still an important piece of the air attack for the Bears, following a career-high 81 receptions on 140 targets in 2021. Velus Jones Jr. was selected in the third-round of this past summer’s NFL draft, but missed time during the preseason due to injury likely has him behind schedule entering September. Jones Jr. has potential as a dynamic athlete, but he could be limited to the return game or limited offensive snaps early in the year until he is completely healthy and deemed ready for an expanded workload.

Byron Pringle should be featured frequently in the slot this season, but he should not be relied upon too heavily, considering that he ranked only 83rd out of 117 receivers last year in receiving grade, per Pro Football Focus. Overall, this is a weak unit, with an underwhelming quarterback throwing them the ball. Do not expect greatness from any of these players in 2022.

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Braxton Jones, Cody Whitehair, Lucas Patrick, Teven Jenkins, Larry Borom

Simply, the Bears have the worst offensive line in the entire league. Protecting Fields’ blind side will be rookie fifth-round pick, Braxton Jones out of Southern Utah. Jones excelled in his final collegiate campaign, but he does not project as an elite left tackle. The coaching staff will be thrilled if he manages to offer league average production on a weekly basis. Cody Whitehair is coming off of a poor 2021 season, during which he graded 46th out of 82 players at his position, per Pro Football Focus. Throughout his career, Whitehair has consistently been a much better run-blocker than he has been in pass protection. It would be safe to expect more of the same this fall from Chicago’s left guard.

Lucas Patrick has been underwhelming, to say the least, since entering the league in 2017. He is far from a coach’s dream in the middle of this offensive line. There is some cause for optimism on the right side of this line with Teven Jenkins and Larry Borom. However, most of the cause for optimism is due to the fact that both of these players are still only in their second year in the NFL, with plenty of potential that has theoretically not yet manifested on the field. Last fall, both Jenkins and Borom performed far below expectations. Massive improvements are needed from both of these guys if this unit wants to avoid being a major liability in 2022.  

Base 4-3 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Trevis Gipson, Angelo Blackson, Justin Jones, Robert Quinn

In 2021, the Bears finished worse than league average in both rush yards allowed per play and pass yards allowed per play. Taking a deeper look at the trenches on this side of the ball, it is not difficult to see why. Robert Quinn is the lone star in this unit, and even he is a major vulnerability in the running game. Justin Jones has compiled only one productive campaign in his four years in the NFL, and is coming off of a 2021 season in which he graded as 60th out of 108 players at his position, per Pro Football Focus. He does not project to be a difference maker in 2022, in either the run game or against the pass.

Angelo Blackson could be referred to as an “established” defensive lineman, but only because he has managed to appear in games each season since 2015. Nothing about his NFL resume suggests that he will make a positive impact for this group this fall. Trevis Gipson, similar to Quinn, proved adept at getting after the quarterback in 2021, but remains an unfinished product due to his poor grades in the run game.

Teams should be able to run at-will against Chicago this season, and there is only a mild concern that Quinn or Gipson will be able to alter the script of the game with their ability to get into the opposing backfield.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Nicholas Morrow, Roquan Smith, Joe Thomas

Roquan Smith was seemingly on his way out of town after requesting a trade during the summer. However, Smith ended up rescinding his trade request in mid-August, and will settle into his normal role as part of the Chicago linebacker corps this season, playing on the final year of his current contract. Smith is a good player, but nowhere near a great player, and definitely not in the tier of talent that makes him capable of forcing a trade. Smith was solid in coverage in 2021, but compiled only three sacks and was generally unexceptional in the run game, despite a team-leading 163 tackles.

This unit is better with Smith than without him, but this is still an underwhelming group of talent. Nicholas Morrow, who figures to occupy the middle linebacker position, carries significant concerns, following an ankle injury that caused him to miss the entire 2021 campaign. Joe Thomas excelled in a limited role in 2021, but it remains to be seen if he can replicate that performance over a larger sample size.

Secondary

Depth Chart: Jaylon Johnson, Jaquan Brisker, Eddie Jackson, Kyler Gordon

The Chicago secondary lacks a single reliable playmaker, which is unquestionably concerning considering the pass-heavy approach of the modern NFL. Jaylon Johnson and Eddie Jackson both ranked near the bottom of Pro Football Focus’ coverage grading system at their respective positions in 2021. Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker are both rookies being thrust into sizable roles for this upcoming season.

Gordon played better in the slot in college, but figures to get plenty of opportunity out-wide after being selected in the second round. Brisker profiled as an elite run defender at Penn State, but scouts have concerns about his ability to play well consistently in coverage at the NFL level. Simply, neither of Chicago’s rookies project to be elite contributors in the rookie campaign, making it unlikely that this unit improves much from their poor production in 2021.

2022 Chicago Bears Outlook And Betting Pick

The Bears are worse than league average at every position on their roster, which makes it extremely difficult to be optimistic heading into this upcoming season. Fields and others on the roster still carry youth and high draft pedigree, but there was little seen on the field in 2021 that inspires hope for dramatic, and sudden, improvements in 2022.

Factor in a relatively difficult schedule that features games against the San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Commanders, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, and the Buffalo Bills – it is hard to see where this team gets to six victories. Chicago’s win total is far too high on the market. Bettors should be salivating at the chance to bet the under in this spot.