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2022 Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Tue 8/23 10:32am PT
Our NFL experts are taking the under on the 2022 Dallas Cowboys' win total set by Vegas sportsbooks.
Image Credit: Imagn

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Dallas Cowboys and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

The Dallas Cowboys ran away with the NFC East last season, winning 12 regular season games, before losing to the San Francisco 49ers in the Wild Card round of the postseason. Dallas doubled their win total in Year 2 with Head Coach Mike McCarthy, but the franchise has still not advanced past the Divisional round in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl in 1995. 

Last year, the Cowboys were one of the luckiest teams in the entire NFL, measured by fumble-recovery percentage, injury luck, and other luck metrics. Let’s take a look at their roster unit-by-unit, to see if they can create their own luck in 2022, and whether or not Dak Prescott and company have enough talent to get back to the postseason.

Dallas Cowboys 2022 Team Preview

Quarterbacks

Depth Chart: Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, Will Grier

Entering his seventh season, Dak Prescott has firmly established himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. Last year, he finished 7th in the league in passing yards, tied for 4th in touchdown passes, and narrowly missed out on a top-10 finish in QBR. Per Pro Football Focus, Prescott performed significantly better than league average against the blitz, against no blitz, on third down, when kept clean, and when under pressure.

He is one of the few signal callers capable of throwing the ball with precision anywhere on the football field, with a better than league average passer rating on throws to all depths of target. If there is any concern for Prescott this fall, it is that he will need to develop rapport with new pass-catchers. In 2021, Amari Cooper was his most targeted receiver on 3rd down and in the red zone – something that will obviously change in 2022 with Cooper in Cleveland.

Running Backs

Depth Chart: Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle, JaQuan Hardy

Ezekiel Elliott finished seventh in rush attempts and rushing yards in 2021, but it is worth noting that he only eclipsed 52 rushing yards in a game once after Week 6 last season – and it came in a Week 18 matchup against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that rested the majority of its key players.

Since entering the league in 2016, Elliott has amassed 1,650 carries in the regular season, on top of a heavy workload during his college days in Columbus, Ohio. It would not be surprising to see Tony Pollard continue to gain more opportunities in the backfield for this group, especially considering the fact that Pollard finished 5th in the entire league last year in yards-per-carry. In three seasons, Pollard has averaged 5.1 yards-per-carry in a limited role, but has seen his touches increase each year since his rookie campaign in 2019. He could be in for a breakout in 2022.

Wide Receivers And Tight Ends

Depth Chart: CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, James Washington, Dalton Schultz

Notably, Amari Cooper is gone from this wide receiver room, following an underwhelming four years in Dallas, at least relative to expectations. Nevertheless, this unit is far from decimated heading into the new season with CeeDee Lamb as the top option in the passing game. Lamb finished as PFF’s 8th-highest graded receiver in 2021 en route to his first 1,000 yard season and 79 receptions. Behind Lamb, Michael Gallup will be unavailable for the beginning of the season, as he recovers from a torn ACL.

James Washington was rarely dependable in Pittsburgh, but is hoping that a change of scenery will do him good. Third-round draft pick Jalen Tolbert out of Arkansas State could be thrust into a larger-than-expected role in 2022. Tolbert has elite speed and is a dependable route runner, but durability concerns and the fact that he has not played a Power Five school since 2019 are valid reasons to curb enthusiasm.

Dalton Schultz could be a tremendous benefactor of the departure of Cooper. Last fall, Schultz put together a career season, with 78 catches on 104 targets for 808 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He was second to Cooper on the team in red zone targets, per The Athletic, and tied for second on the team in overall targets. Schultz could be in for a big year, especially considering that he is being asked to play on a prove-it $11 million franchise tag in 2022.

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Tyron Smith, Connor McGoverh, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin, Terence Steele

Once heralded for having the best offensive line in the league, there are question marks in Dallas. Tyron Smith at left tackle and Zack Martin at right guard are undeniably elite run- and pass-blockers. However, Connor McGovern has been far closer to mediocre during his first two NFL seasons.

Tyler Biadasz improved dramatically from his rookie campaign to his sophomore campaign, but he is more inconsistent than is preferable for a starting center. At right tackle, Terence Steele is a borderline liability in pass protection, and is a below league average run-blocker as well. If there is hope for Steele, it is that he made significant strides from 2020 to 2021. If he can manage to take another major leap forward in 2022, this unit goes from good to great.

Base 4-3 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: DeMarcus Lawrence, Osa Odighizuwa, Neville Gallimore, Dorance Armstrong 

The Cowboys finished 2021 ranked 15th in sacks per pass attempt, per NFL GSIS. In the off-season, this unit lost Randy Gregory, who finished second on the team with six sacks in only 12 games played last year. Consequently, the defensive line could regress further this fall when it comes to getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Deficiencies getting into the opposing backfield could prove particularly problematic, if Dallas is unable to fix their issues against the run. The Cowboys ranked 23rd in rushing yards per play in 2021, and there is little reason to expect major improvements in this area with Neville Gallimore and Osa Odighizuwa getting snaps in the middle of the line. 

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Luke Gifford, Leighton Vander Esch, Micah Parsons

The one area of undeniable strength for the Cowboys’ defense this fall is their linebacker corps. Splitting his time between linebacker and edge rusher last fall, Micah Parsons led all rookies with 13 sacks. He was not elite in coverage or against the run, but it is likely only a matter of time before the young superstar makes exponential strides in those areas of his game.

Leighton Vander Esch burst on to the NFL scene with a dazzling body of work in 2018, but has failed to replicate that success in any of the last three seasons. Still, the former first round pick has a high floor, with the same high ceiling that he possessed when he was drafted. Anthony Barr is currently on the active/PIP list, but figures to make a positive impact when he finally makes it back to the field in 2022.

In Barr’s absence, Luke Gifford is likely to see an increased workload. He has been underwhelming in each of the last two seasons, but is not likely to be relied upon for a starter’s role for the majority of 2022. 

Secondary

Depth Chart: Anthony Brown, Jayron Kearse, Malik Hooker, Trevon Diggs

In 2021, Dallas led the NFL with 26 interceptions – highlighted by Trevon Diggs, who had a league-leading 11 interceptions by himself. Yet, the advanced metrics are not confident that the Cowboys will be able to repeat this performance in 2022.

Diggs made headlines on a weekly basis for ostensibly elite cornerback play last fall. However, he still finished the season as one of the lowest graded cornerbacks in football. In fact, he has not finished in the top half of Pro Football Focus’ position grades in either of his first two years in the NFL.

The former second-round pick has become a household name, but his reputation is likely to regress significantly in his third season as fans begin to see the plethora of holes in his skillset. Despite the lack of recognition, Anthony Brown was Dallas’ best cornerback last year. Still, he is far from an elite member of the secondary, leaving Dallas particularly vulnerable against skilled passing attacks.

Last season, the Cowboys ranked 20th in passing yards allowed per play, supporting the notion that their defense was not as productive as the scoreboard often indicated. Nevertheless, Jayron Kearse and Malik Hooker combine to form one of the better safety duos in the league. If Kearse and Hook remain healthy, they should keep the Cowboys from being exploited deep down-the-field too often.

2022 Dallas Cowboys Outlook And Betting Pick

Dallas led the league last season with a +14 turnover differential, which helped propel them to 12 victories. Some pundits might point to the Cowboys’ +172 point differential, which ranked 2nd-best in the NFL, as evidence that Dallas can withstand slightly less good fortune in 2022 while still managing to win the NFC East.

However, it is worth noting that Dallas secured 107 points of that differential in three games against the Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders, and Philadelphia Eagles in Week 18, with the Eagles resting the majority of their starters.

Off-season losses including Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory, and La’el Collins only further the likelihood that the Cowboys will experience regression this fall. The under on their win total is the smart lean.