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2022 New England Patriots Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Mon 8/22 8:56am PT
Will Mac Jones help New England exceed their 8.5 win total prop set by Vegas sportsbooks?
Image Credit: Imagn

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 New England Patriots and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

Since Bill Belichick took over as head coach of the New England Patriots, in 2000, the organization has experienced two losing seasons – 2000, which was Belichick’s first year as head coach, and 2020, which was the first year of the post-Tom Brady era.

Last season, New England spent the most money of any team in the NFL in free agency, and it resulted in a 10-7 regular season before losing in the Wild Card round to the Buffalo Bills. Despite having rookie Mac Jones under center, the team finished the year with the third-best point differential in all of football (+159).

Heading into 2022, the organization is once again dealing with a significant amount of change, having lost Josh McDaniels, not to mention a wealth of defensive talent. Let’s take a look at their roster unit-by-unit to see what Belichick has to work for the upcoming campaign.

New England Patriots 2022 Team Preview

Quarterbacks

Depth Chart: Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer, Bailey Zappe

Entering his second season as an NFL starter, Mac Jones will have a new offensive coordinator after Josh McDaniels left to become the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. In place of McDaniels, Matt Patricia, Joe Judge, and others on the New England coaching staff are ‘dividing and conquering’ the responsibilities typically associated with the offensive coordinator position, per Steve Buckley of The Athletic.

In his rookie season, Jones threw for 22 touchdowns against 13 interceptions, and finished 16th in the NFL in QBR. His biggest deficiency was on throws 20+ yards down-the-field, throwing for only four touchdowns against five interceptions, with a 72.4 passer rating – which was 20.3 points below league average on such attempts. Heading into his sophomore campaign, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about the shrewd signal caller, but the lack of weapons, and the new coaching staff certainly present some concerns.

Running Backs

Depth Chart: Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Pierre Strong Jr. 

Super Bowl LI hero, James White, will not be returning to the field for this upcoming season. Last October, White suffered a hip injury that required surgery – ending his season after only three games played. In his absence, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson once again figure to handle the majority of the workload in the backfield. In 2021, Harris and Stevenson combined for 335 carries and 1,535 yards rushing. The duo should once again be a strength for this unit, running behind one of the better offensive lines in the league.

Pierre Strong Jr. was New England’s fourth-round pick in this past summer’s draft, but has failed to impress much thus far in the ramp up for the regular season. Reports out of camp indicate that he has struggled in pass protection, and he did not improve his stock much with only 25 yards on six touches in the Patriots’ preseason opener against the New York Giants. Strong Jr. could be in for a very limited role this fall, especially if his drop issues remain unsolved. He appears to be a distant third on the depth chart.

Wide Receivers And Tight End

Depth Chart: DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry

Last season, Jakobi Meyers led the Patriots with 866 receiving yards on 126 targets, lining up in the slot for over half of his snaps.  Myers was also Jones’ favorite option on 3rd down, under pressure, and against the blitz – establishing himself as a vital part of this passing attack. Kendrick Bourne played in all 17 games in his first season in Foxborough, hauling in 55 catches on only 70 targets, for 800 yards and five touchdowns.

His ability to line up in the slot, out-wide, and even in the backfield should give him a safe floor for production in 2022. He could be a stabilizing presence for an offense undergoing an offseason overhaul in the wake of losing their offensive coordinator.

New England traded a 3rd round draft pick to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for DeVante Parker, who they hoped would add value out-wide. Thus far in training camp, reports are that Parker has been a focal point in the red zone, using his 6-foot-3, 219-pound body to make contested catches. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Parker leads the league in tight-window catches over the last five seasons, bringing a much-needed skillset to this roster.

Per Pro Football Focus, Hunter Henry led New England with 19 targets in the red zone last year, and was second on the team in target share overall at 14.3 percent. The result was a team-leading nine touchdown receptions – a career high. Henry once again figures to be one of the best receiving options at tight end in the NFL, and a necessary safety blanket for his young quarterback. 

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Isaiah Wynn, Cole Strange, David Andrews, Mike Onwenu, Trent Brown

Many pundits were surprised when the Patriots selected Cole Strange with the 29th selection in the draft this past summer. However, his skillset makes him a perfect fit in New England’s outside zone scheme, which was implemented prior to last season.

Strange joins Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown, who are two of the best zone-blocking offensive tackles in the league, per Pro Football Focus. David Andrews and Michael Onwenu each graded as elite run-blockers in 2021 as well. This is arguably the best run-blocking offensive line in all of football. Expect another superb year from this unit in 2022.

Base 3-4 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Deatrich Wise Jr., Davon Godchaux, Lawrence Guy

New England could end up having one of the worst defensive lines in the entire league this year. Last season, the Patriots ranked 16th in sacks per pass attempt, and they did little to improve this area during the draft or free agency. Deatrich Wise Jr. was below league average against the run in 2021, and was only barely mediocre against the pass.

He finished with only three sacks and 41 tackles in 16 games. Davon Godchaux recorded only one sack last season, further illuminating his inability to get after the opposing quarterback. Similar to Wise Jr., Godchaux was only serviceable against the run – nothing more. Lawrence Guy finished with only 1.5 sacks last fall. Entering his 11th NFL campaign, his ceiling is decidedly low. 

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Matthew Judon, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Mack Wilson, Josh Uche

Matthew Judon was New England’s most prolific pass-rusher in 2021, with 12.5 sacks and 14 tackles-for-loss. However, his excellence in getting after the quarterback can only be praised so much, considering his major deficiencies in the running game. Per Pro Football Focus, Judon graded 93rd out of 120 players at his position last season in run defense at his position.

Ja’Whaun Bentley led the Patriots with 109 tackles last season, but had only one sack, and only rarely gave fans a reason to celebrate him for anything beyond the basic requirements of his job. Josh Uche was drafted in the second round in 2017, but has thus far failed to live up to the hype. In 12 games last year, he delivered only 12 tackles.  

Secondary

Depth Chart: Malcolm Butler, Kyle Dugger, Devin McCourty, Jalen Mills

Malcolm Butler has returned to Foxborough, though he is now 32 years old, and will be playing NFL football for the first time since 2020 when he steps on the field this fall. After three seasons with the Tennessee Titans, Butler will likely be utilized as a depth piece behind first-team cornerbacks Jalen Mills and Terrance Mitchell, though Butler could have plenty of value to add beyond mentorship and an extra body on the depth chart.

In his final season with the Titans, Butler graded as the 15th best player at his position out of 121 qualified cornerbacks, per Pro Football Focus. Butler could be forced into a bigger role than anticipated if Terrance Mitchell experiences another underwhelming season out-wide.

Jalen Mills seemingly has a more stable path to consistent playing time, but poor coverage grades in 2021 will create significant vulnerabilities for the New England pass defense if improvements are not seen in 2022. Still, having Devin McCourty at safety, paired with Adrian Phillips or Kyle Duggar should keep this group from getting beat down-the-field too often this fall. A step backwards in production is likely, but the genius of Belichick is unlikely to let this unit become a complete liability.  

2022 New England Patriots Outlook And Betting Pick

New England lost two of their top six tacklers from 2021 during the off-season, Kyle Van Noy and Dont’a Hightower. They also lost their offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, and are in the process of implementing a completely new offensive scheme. The transition is seemingly not going well, considering the abundance of concerning reports coming out of training camp. The inability to win the line of scrimmage on a consistent basis is likely to be the downfall for this group. Take the under on their win total.