Betting The NBA Playoffs: Celtics-Bucks, Grizzlies-Warriors Expert Picks and Predictions

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the Celtics vs. Bucks and Grizzlies vs. Warriors on Monday, May 9, 2022. Make sure to use our Betmgm promo code for a $1000 free bet!

Happy Monday everyone! At least if there is such a thing. I have always said the more playoff basketball, the better. Even though the Heat failed to cover, I love that both the Sixers and Mavericks were able to even their respective series at two games apiece. 

The Mavericks once again were deadly from the three-point line and once again took great care of the ball. I continue to expect regression in both categories, but it has yet to hit. The Suns have not looked comfortable on the road in this series, but now return home for Game 5.

The Sixers picked up their second win in a row and have to feel good about their chances in this series given the fact that they haven’t lost to the Heat with Joel Embiid in the lineup. The big difference in Game 4 was the shooting – the Sixers were 54% from the field and 49% from the three-point line.  

They say a series doesn’t start until the home team loses a game, so I guess the Suns, Mavericks, Heat, and Sixers are all still waiting for the second round to begin. Kidding aside, these teams are giving us two great chances of seeing a Game 7 for the first time these playoffs.

Now let’s take a closer look at today’s NBA odds for the Celtics vs. Bucks and Grizzlies vs. Warriors!

Free NBA Betting Picks For Today

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Series: MIL 2-1

The Celtics came so close to sending Game 3 to overtime. They had a number of good looks in the final seconds, but ended up losing the game by two points. All in all, Boston fans should feel good that they were even competitive in that game. The Celtics shot 37% from the field, they were out-rebounded, and they committed more turnovers. Jayson Tatum had his worst outing of the postseason and they still nearly won the game.

The box score for the Bucks is quite the sight. They took 99 shots as a team in Game 3, but Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday combined for 60 of them. Luckily for Milwaukee, they made 27 of those 60 attempts. I had to do a double-take on Holiday’s stat line, as he shot the ball 30 times from the floor and didn’t attempt a single free throw in the game. Regardless, the anomalies in the box score added up to a win. They now have a golden opportunity to go up 3-1 in the series with a win at home tonight. 

Perhaps I am clinging on a little too tight to my thoughts on this series before it started, but everything points to the Celtics in Game 4. Despite being down in the series, they have a much better net rating than the Bucks in the first three games. They are the healthier and the deeper team at the moment. My prediction is that Jayson Tatum bounces back in a big way and that the Celtics even up the series before heading back to Boston. 

• ATS Pick: Boston +1, PointsBet

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

Series: GSW 2-1

There is nothing worse than an injury in a playoff series, especially when it happens to a key player. Gary Payton suffered an elbow injury in Game 2 and Ja Morant suffered a knee injury in Game 4. I’m not sure we can compare the two plays in terms of the intent of the player that injured them, but it’s sad to see regardless. Morant is not expected to play tonight, which is why the Grizzlies are listed as 10.5-point underdogs. 

My plan in this series was to bet on the Warriors in every home game. They made quick work of the Grizzlies in Game 3 and I expect a similar result tonight. Even if Morant is able to suit up, the Warriors are too good in front of their home crowd. They feed off energy as well as any team in the league. Given the struggles of the Suns the last two games, I think the Warriors deserve to be favored to come out of the Western Conference. 

It’s going to be tough sledding for the Grizzlies if Morant isn’t able to suit up tonight. I know 10.5 points is a very large spread in a playoff game, but Morant has been their engine on the offensive end of the floor. Desmond Bane has struggled in the series, the fans are going to be on Dillon Brooks all game, and the rest of the team relies on Morant to get them open looks. I will be betting the Warriors to cover the spread and will also be sprinkling in some first half action. 

• ATS Pick: Golden State -10, Caesars Sportsbook