Detroit Tigers MLB Betting Preview: Reasons for Optimism in the Motor City
MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida continues to look at Detroit Tigers futures odds, this time focusing on their bats. Make sure to claim $1100 of first-bet insurance with our Caesars bonus code before Opening Day.
Detroit Tigers 2022 MLB Betting Preview
- Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 78.5 Wins (-110)
- Best Regular Season Record: +15000
- Division Winner: +750
- To Make the Playoffs: +340
- American League Winner: +2800
- World Series Champion: +6000
Following a 77-85 finish to the 2021 campaign, there is optimism concerning baseball in the Motor City for the first time since 2016. Beyond the fan appeal of Miguel Cabrera approaching 3,000 hits, there is plenty for Michigan sports bettors to be excited about as Opening Day approaches.
The Tigers had a winning record after May 7 last season, then proceeded to bolster the roster with additions of Tucker Barnhart, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Javier Baez. Combine these veteran acquisitions with the imminent arrival of Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, and it is easy to see why expectations are at a five-year high for this ballclub. Below, let’s take a look at how the Tigers stack up as they attempt to secure their first winning season in a half-decade.
Lineup Preview
| Name | Pos. | GP 2021 | wRC+ v. LHP | wRC+ v. RHP | K% | BB% | UZR/ 150 |
| Tucker Barnhart | C | 116 | 73 | 83 | 25.8% | 7.5% | – |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Jonathan Schoop | 2B | 156 | 151 | 86 | 19.7% | 5.5% | -0.1 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 3B | 149 | 105 | 124 | 21.6% | 10.4% | -9.2 |
| Javier Baez | SS | 138 | 148 | 105 | 33.6% | 5.1% | -0.1 |
| Akil Baddoo | LF | 124 | 47 | 127 | 26.5% | 9.8% | -3.3 |
| Riley Greene | CF | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Robbie Grossman | RF | 156 | 135 | 105 | 23.1% | 14.1% | -1.1 |
| Miguel Cabrera | DH | 130 | 95 | 91 | 22.4% | 7.6% | -7.6 |
| Derek Hill | UTIL | 49 | 115 | 76 | 28.0% | 6.7% | -5.2 |
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Detroit ranked 18th in OPS, 25th in ISO, 26th in strikeout percentage, 25th in walk rate, and 14th in wRC+. Facing right-handed pitching, the Tigers ranked 23rd in OPS, 19th in ISO, 29th in strikeout percentage, 18th in walk rate, and 22nd in wRC+.
It is unclear as of this writing as to whether or not Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene will be with the Detroit Tigers on April 8th when they host the Chicago White Sox for their home opener. However, it would be extremely surprising to see either of Detroit’s prized prospects spend more than a few weeks in the minor leagues before getting the call to join the big league club. Regardless of whether Torkelson and Greene are on the active roster on April 8th or not until May 8th, the summer lineup for the Tigers is likely to push Jonathan Schoop to second base and Miguel Cabrera, mercifully, to designated hitter. Victor Reyes is likely to be the odd-man-out in the outfield due to his offensive deficiencies against left-handed pitching. Derek Hill should be the other half of the left field platoon with Akil Badoo.
Detroit Tigers MVP Odds
Javier Baez (+10000)
Signed to a six-year, $140M contract during the off-season, expectations are understandably high for Javier Baez in his first season with the Tigers. Yet, it is possible that the production received by Detroit will be less than commensurate with the dollars the front office will be paying him. Spanning 1,343 plate appearances since the beginning of the 2019 campaign, Baez has been only four percent better than league average at the plate. His slightly above average production is tied to the largest whiff rate in the Major Leagues and the highest swinging-strike rate, per Baseball Prospectus. Baez is a plus-defender and a plus-clubhouse presence, but, unfortunately for Detroit Tigers bettors, he is unlikely to be anywhere near the discussions for Most Valuable Player in 2022. As always, make sure to find the best prices for your MVP bets on our MLB futures page.
Jeimer Candelario (+10000)
Across his last 832 plate appearances, Jeimer Candelario has hit 23 home runs and collected 96 RBI. His 22.1 strikeout percentage and 10.2 percent walk rate support the notion that his 123 wRC+ in that span is not a fluke. In 2021, Candelario was an above average bat against both left- and right-handed pitching. He ranked in the 70th percentile or better in walk-rate, xSLG, xBA, and xwOBA, not to mention a career-best line drive rate that resulted in 42 doubles. Candelario is unlikely to have an award winning campaign, but he has solidified himself as a dangerous weapon in an emerging Detroit lineup.
Spencer Torkelson (+15000)
As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, the Tigers have little reason to keep Spencer Torkelson off of the Opening Day roster. If Torkelson breaks camp with the team, Detroit will receive a draft-pick incentive as part of the MLB Players Association’s efforts to reduce service-time manipulation, per The Athletic. A former number one overall selection, Torkelson has plus-hit and plus-power which should translate well to the big league level. Betting on a player who has never played in an MLB game to win MVP is the quintessential longshot, but if there is a player capable of delivering for bettors–it could be Torkelson.