Dodgers vs. Giants: Is LA Worth A Moneyline Bet Today? (6/12/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Dodgers vs. Giants odds, previews each team, and delivers a pick and prediction for Sunday. Use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting on baseball now!

Free MLB Expert Picks For Sunday

On Sunday, the Los Angeles Dodger and San Francisco Giants will wrap-up a three-game set at Oracle Park. The Giants have earned a victory in each of the first two games between these teams this weekend, winning 7-2 on Friday evening, and again by a final score of 3-2 yesterday. Looking for a sweep, San Francisco will hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, who will be opposed by Julio Urias. Oddsmakers anticipate Los Angeles getting back in the win column in this spot, pricing them as -130 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Julio Urias enters play with a 2.78 ERA, 3.49 xERA, and a 4.61 FIP. Compared to last year, his numbers have worsened across the board, including significant performance drops in strikeout and walk percentage, and WHIP. In his last four turns through the rotation, Urias has posted a 2.42 ERA, but a 4.03 FIP and a fortunate .241 BABIP in that stretch indicate that he has been more lucky, than good–especially if factoring in a 13.1 percent barrel rate in that time period.

Fortunately, for the Dodgers’ southpaw, he gets a favorable matchup today against a San Francisco lineup, which ranks 21st in OPS and 17th in ISO against left-handed pitching across the last two weeks of action, in a sample size of 133 plate appearances.

The Dodgers, inexplicably, continue to be a mediocre offensive attack against southpaws. Since May 29th, Los Angeles ranks only 11th in OPS, 12th in ISO, 8th in walk-rate, and 8th in strikeout percentage against lefties. Facing one of the more talented left-handed pitchers in baseball on Sunday afternoon, it could be difficult for this group to improve much, if at all, on these numbers.

Yesterday, Manager Dave Roberts used Alex Vesia, Caleb Ferguson, Evan Phillips, Yency Almonte, and Craigh Kimbrel in relief of Clayton Kershaw, who did not make it very deep into the ballgame. Phil Brickford has been used in three of the last five days, and is only one of four relievers in this bullpen to have pitched in two of the last three days. Fatigued arms could be a concern in the latter half of this game for Los Angeles.

San Francisco Giants

Carlos Rodon owns a 3.51 ERA, 3.05 xERA, and a 2.65 FIP through 11 turns in the rotation this season. However, he has been far less dominant of late, with a 6.00 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 19.5 strikeout percentage, and a 1.75 WHIP across his last five starts. Even excluding a nightmarish outing against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball, Rodon has a 3.54 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 20.4 strikeout percentage, and a 1.52 WHIP since May 21st–hardly elite numbers. 

On the year, San Francisco ranks 8th in OPS and 6th in ISO against left-handed pitching. However, they have struggled of late in these situations, ranking in the bottom-half of the league in both of these key metrics across their last 133 plate appearances against southpaws. 

Similar to the Dodgers, the Giants could have significant issues finding rested arms in the late innings today. Tyler Rogers, Camilo Doval, and Dominic Leone have each appeared in three of the last four days. Jake McGee, Zack Littell, and John Brebbia have each pitched in two of the last three days. Manager Gabe Kapler could look to get creative with his bullpen usage this afternoon.

Dodgers vs. Giants Expert Pick 

It is not often that bettors have an opportunity to back the Dodgers at reasonable juice. There are legitimate reasons for this line being priced where it is – notably, their struggles against left-handed pitching and an extremely taxed bullpen. However, it is rare that a team with as much talent as Los Angeles is ever on the verge of being swept. At a very reasonable price, the Dodgers are worth a wager on the moneyline in this one.

• PICK: Dodgers ML (-130), FanDuel Sportsbook