Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB & NFL Player Props To Bet On Monday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB & NFL player props picks for Monday, September 26, 2022.
We have just four games in MLB tonight as the season enters its final 10 days. Will we see an historic home run #61 from Aaron Judge tonight? He gets a tough matchup against Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays.
We also have an NFC East battle on Monday Night Football with the New York Giants hosting the Dallas Cowboys. Hopefully, it is a bit more exciting than last night’s game between the Broncos and Seahawks.
Free MLB and NFL Player Props Picks For Monday
Roansy Contreras Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106, FanDuel)
Let’s get started on the diamond with the Cincinnati Reds heading to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates. It has been a long season for each of these teams as they both approach 100 losses on the season.
Roansy Contreras will make his 17th start of the season for Pittsburgh. Contreras has flashed plenty of upside in an inconsistent season. He was on a great run of four straight starts with one run or less allowed until he ran into some trouble against the Yankees his last time out. He gave up a first inning grand slam, but then settled in to finish with 10 strikeouts in just 4.2 innings.
Overall, Contreras owns a 3.68 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate. The strikeouts are right around league average, and the walks are a little higher than you would like, but Contreras has the potential to be a long-term member of an MLB rotation.
Contreras has recorded over 4.5 strikeouts in 8 of his 16 starts this season, and he also has two relief appearances of 3.0 innings where he had 5 strikeouts. He may have an average strikeout rate this season, but he has the potential to be an elite strikeout pitcher. His strikeout rate in 9 AAA starts this season is nearly 33%.
His matchup today is outstanding against the Reds. They have been well-below average this season with an 86 wRC+ and a .301 wOBA that ranks 6th worst in MLB. They also have the 7th highest strikeout rate in the league at 23.9%. The Reds projected lineup contains 4 batters who have struck out over 27% of the time versus right-handed pitching this season, and another 2 batters who are over 22% strikeouts against righties. They also project to send 7 right-handed hitters to the plate, which is a positive considering Contreras’ platoon split. He has struck out 24% of righties and just 19.5% of lefties.
Contreras has the ability to rack up strikeouts in a hurry and he gets a weak Reds offense today. Give me the over on 4.5 strikeouts.
*** PICK UPDATE***
The Reds lineup came out since I wrote this up and the line has been hammered, from nearly even money at 4.5 strikeouts to 5.5 strikeouts. I still like the 5.5 number if you can get it at plus money.
The Reds are rolling out 8 right-handed batters and 5 of them strike out over 27% of the time versus right-handed pitching, plus another 2 that are over 22%. Barrero, with a nearly 45% strikeout rate against righties, was the addition to the lineup that really moved the needle here.
Let’s switch gears over to the football game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.
Dak Prescott remains out for the Cowboys and it seems Michael Gallup will not be able to make his season debut either. Dalton Shultz is also questionable (leaning doubtful) to play. Cooper Rush will be in charge of leading the Cowboys depleted offense.
The Giants are dealing with a few injuries of their own in the receiving corps with Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson already ruled out tonight. We saw an interesting shift in wide receiver snaps for the Giants last week against the Panthers.
David Sills Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
David Sills played 91% of the snaps last week, while Kenny Gollday (3%) and Darius Slayton (7%) barely saw the field. Golladay has been the subject of trade rumors and potentially could be dealt this week. With Toney and Robinson out with injuries, Sills should have a clear path to a ton of playing time again this week. He turned his role last week into 3 receptions on 4 targets and 37 receiving yards.
The line on Sills’ receiving yards is too low if he is in fact locked into the number two wide receiver role. I will take a chance that his role does not change tonight, so give me the over on 20.5 receiving yards.
Tony Pollard Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-125, PointsBet)
I also want to attack this wide receiver situation with Dallas as Gallup is not expected to return tonight and Dalton Schutlz also highly questionable.
I expected the Cowboys to use Tony Pollard more in the passing game this season, especially early in the year while Gallup was still out. He ran 15 routes in week 1, but only earned a disappointing 2 targets. He ran only 11 routes in week 2, but he earned an incredible 7 targets on those routes and finished with 4 receptions and 55 receiving yards.
If Dalton Schultz misses this game, Dallas is extremely thin on talented pass catchers. Tony Pollard is certainly a guy they should lean on in this scenario. He should be involved in the game plan regardless of whether the Cowboys are playing from ahead or behind. I like him to catch 4-5 balls and go over 20.5 receiving yards tonight.
Tonight’s Player Prop Betting Card
That will do it for today. We were able to identify a strikeout prop in MLB and two receiving yards props in the NFL tonight:
- Roansy Contreras Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106, FanDuel)
- David Sills Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Tony Pollard Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-125, PointsBet)
Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!