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Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Wednesday

Keith Eyster Wed 7/6 1:10pm PT
Our experts are backing Luis Severino today against Pittsburgh.
Image Credit: Imagn

Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today — Wednesday, July 6, 2022.

We have 14 games on the MLB schedule today. Four of the games get started in the afternoon, so we will focus on the 10 games that start at 6:40 ET or later. 

There are a handful of spots worth monitoring for weather risk, with Baltimore currently looking like the highest risk according to Kevin Roth at RotoGrinders. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Atlanta make the list, but fall into the likely to play fine category. 

We get started in Pittsburgh where the Pirates host the New York Yankees. According to Roth, “Rain clearing around first pitch, so a late start is possible, but I think the game should get in without much concern” 

The majority of the rain is due before first pitch and there isn’t much of an in-game delay risk, so I am comfortable with our target there. 

Free MLB Player Props Picks For Today

Luis Severino Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100) 

Luis Severino makes his 15th start of the season for the Yankees. He has had a solid season as he continues to get further removed from his injury troubles that cost him the majority of the last three seasons. 

Severino has posted a 3.35 ERA that is supported by a 3.24 SIERA and 3.37 xFIP. The strikeout rate has been very solid at 28.9% with the walk rate sitting at 7.3%.  

After a cautious ramp up to begin the season, Severino has been in outstanding form. He has recorded at least 7 strikeouts in 7 of his last 9 starts. His strikeout rate over those 9 starts sits at an elite 32.1%. He has thrown over 90 pitches in all but one of those starts, and has even topped 100 pitches in three of them. 

His matchup today is about as good as it gets in Pittsburgh. The Pirates have struck out at 25.3% this season, which is the second highest rate in the league. Their 89 wRC+ and .292 wOBA both rank third-worst in MLB. 

The biggest concern for Severino today is he has had a wide split this season and is projected to face 8 left-handed batters. His strikeout rate versus lefties sits at 20.2%, while he has struck out 34.6% of righties. I am willing to write this off a bit as small sample size variance because his career numbers are not nearly as drastic. He has struck out 25.8% of lefties in his career versus 28.7% of righties. 

He also features a change-up nearly 35% of the time versus lefties, which is a pitch Pittsburgh has struggled with as an offense. Six of the eight lefties in the projected lineup have whiffed at least 35% of the time versus right-handed change-ups. 

Severino should be in line for 95-100 pitches in a pitcher’s park versus one of baseball’s worst offenses. I like him to go over 6.5 strikeouts, despite the less than ideal platoon splits. 

Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)

We stay in the state of Pennsylvania for our next target in Philadelphia, where the Phillies host the Washington Nationals. Aaron Nola makes his 17th start of the season for the Phillies. 

Nola has been one of the best and most consistent pitchers in baseball this season. He owns a solid 3.13 ERA and the skills have been elite with 29.1% strikeouts and just 3.5% walks. His 2.80 SIERA and 2.88 xFIP both suggest he has been a little unlucky. 

Nola has recorded at least 7 strikeouts in 10 of his 16 starts this season. In his start versus Washington last month, he tossed 8 shutout innings with 8 strikeouts. He routinely throws over 100 pitches and works into the late innings of games. 

Nola’s matchup today against Washington has positives and negatives. The Nationals have been a slightly below average offense overall with a 94 wRC+. They have, however, been one of the best contact teams in baseball with a 19.2% strikeout rate that is the second-lowest in baseball.

The wildcard today is the status of the Nats best hitter Juan Soto, who missed last game with a calf injury. Nelson Cruz was also scratched from the lineup last night.

Either of these two bats missing from the lineup again would be a boost for Nola, but especially Soto and his elite 13.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching

Regardless of Soto’s status, I like Nola to go over 6.5 strikeouts today. If Soto is out I will be looking to wager on some alternate strikeout lines for Nola.

Brayan Bello Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120) 

Finally, we look to Fenway Park in Boston, where the Red Sox will take on the division-rival Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox will send top pitching prospect Brayan Bello to the mound for his major league debut. 

Bello has flashed an elite pitch arsenal throughout his run up the minor league system. This season, he began the year in AA where he was nearly untouchable with a 1.60 ERA and 32.6% strikeout rate. He has not slowed down one bit since his promotion to AAA, posting a 2.81 ERA and 34.4% strikeout rate. The walks are a bit of a concern around 10.0%, but the strikeout ability should translate. 

Bello has worked deep into games for a youngster. He has lasted at least 5 innings in each of his 14 starts this season. He has worked through at least 6 innings in 6 of those 14 starts. He has 3 games this season with double-digit strikeouts, and he has recorded at least 8 strikeouts on 9 different occasions. 

There is always risk backing a pitcher making his MLB debut, but Bello is one of the elite pitching prospects in baseball. 

The matchup is pretty good for him today as well. Tampa Bay has been a league-average offense this season with a 100 wRC+, but their .299 wOBA ranks fourth-worst in baseball. The Rays have struck out at a rate of 23.6% this season, which is fifth-highest in the league. 

If he can keep the nerves (and walks) in check, he should be able to have success against the Rays tonight. I like him to rely on his elite stuff. I think Bello goes over 4.5 strikeouts. 

Strikeout Props To Target Wednesday

That will do it for today’s MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target: 

Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!