Eys Breakers: Expert Picks – MLB Strikeout Props For Tuesday
Betting analyst Keith Eyster gives his best MLB player props picks for today —Tuesday, August 2, 2022.
Today is one of my favorite days of the year, trade deadline day in MLB! Multiple players will be changing uniforms today, so be sure to be mindful of that as you consider your bets today.
We have a 16-game schedule on tap that gets started with the first leg of a double-header between Colorado and San Diego. Everything else comes after the 6 PM ET trade deadline.
There are no weather concerns across the league today.
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Free MLB Player Props Picks For Today
Adam Wainwright Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Let’s begin in St. Louis, where the Cardinals welcome the rival Chicago Cubs to town. Adam Wainwright will make his 21st start of the season for the Cardinals.
Wainwright remains a solid pitcher despite his rapidly approaching 41st birthday. He has a 3.28 ERA, 19.6% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate on the season.
Despite owning a below average strikeout rate, Wainwright has went over 4.5 strikeouts in 12 of his 20 starts this season. He pitches deep into games and has consistently thrown over 100 pitches per start.
The matchup today looks great before we consider the impact the trade deadline will have today. The Cubs are going nowhere this season and are committed to selling off any useful pieces.
The status of Willson Contreras as an impending free agent makes him almost certain to be traded today. Ian Happ’s name has been floated in multiple rumors, and we could see secondary pieces like Rafael Ortega and Patrick Wisdom moved as well. This Cubs team is sure to look very different by first pitch.
Wainwright likely ends up facing a watered down lineup that should offer very little resistance. I think he cruises through 7 innings and has no problem going over 4.5 strikeouts.
Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Next, we look to Miami, where the Marlins host the Cincinnati Reds. Braxton Garrett will make his 11th start of the season for the Marlins.
Garrett has gotten decent results with a 3.96 ERA so far this season, but the underlying metrics are even more impressive. His strikeout rate is an above-average 25.1% and his walks are all the way down at 5.5%. His 3.36 SIERA and 3.35 xFIP boat suggest there is some positive regression coming his way.
Garrett has only been over 5.5 strikeouts in 4 of his 10 starts, but 3 of those were in his last 3 starts. His last start came against this Reds team – although they may look a little different after the trade deadline today – and he struck out 8 in only 5 innings. That game was also in super hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, while today he gets the comfort of pitching at home in a much more pitcher-friendly park.
The Reds are another team that is clearly selling at this deadline. They have already moved Tommy Pham, while Brandon Drury and Donovan Solano are also floating around the rumor mill. Drury has been outstanding this season, so his absence from the lineup would be a big boost for Garrett. The Reds have been below average offensively this season with a 90 wRC+ and they have struck out at a rate of 23.9%, 4th most in baseball.
Garrett is likely to get a bad Cincinnati lineup and also gets a ballpark boost pitching at home. I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts today.
Matt Manning Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-142)
Finally, we shift our focus to Minnesota, where the Twins take on the Detroit Tigers. Matt Manning returns from the injured list to make his first start since April for the Tigers.
Manning threw three rehab starts in preparation for his return to a big league mound, with the last two coming in AAA. He made it through 5.2 innings and got up to 85 pitches in his final rehab start. He should pitch mostly without restrictions today.
Manning was not able to solve the major leagues in his first attempt last season. He posted a 5.02 ERA and managed just a 14.8% strikeout rate. In his two starts this year, the inability to make major league hitters was still an issue as he posted a 13.8% strikeout rate in 8 innings. Manning was a high-strikeout pitcher throughout the minors and will likely be above average eventually, but he is clearly not there yet.
He gets a difficult assignment against Minnesota in his first start back. The Twins have been an elite offense this season with a 111 wRC+ and a .324 wOBA that ranks 5th best in baseball. They strike out at a below-average rate of 21.8%.
Manning probably needs a few starts to knock off the rust after missing a significant portion of the season. I think the Twins knock him around a little bit here and he has a bit of a short outing. I like Manning to stay under 3.5 strikeouts today.
That will do it for today’s breakdown of the MLB slate. We were able to identify three strikeout props to target:
- Adam Wainwright Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125, PointsBet)
- Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100, DraftKings)
- Matt Manning Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-142, FanDuel)
Let’s hope for a wild and entertaining trade deadline! Thank you for reading and good luck with your bets today!